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Rumors surrounding the health of Mojtaba Khamenei, a prominent figure in Iran, have sparked speculation about the potential impact on the country's trajectory. However, analysts suggest that Iran's overall direction is unlikely to change significantly regardless of the outcome. The speculation about Mojtaba Khamenei's health has garnered significant attention, but experts argue that the country's political landscape is robust enough to withstand such developments. Iran's political structure and policies are deeply ingrained, reducing the likelihood of drastic shifts in response to individual events or changes in leadership. The stability of Iran's political system is a key factor in maintaining the country's trajectory. Despite rumors and speculation, the fundamental pillars of Iran's governance and strategic direction remain intact, ensuring continuity in its policies and actions on the global stage.

Thousands of Iranians assembled in Tehran for the funeral of senior IRGC naval commander Alireza Tangsiri, who was killed in an Israeli strike, vowing steadfast resistance even as the United States issued stark warnings.The ceremony took place on the 47th anniversary of the Islamic Republic, a milestone that marks the 1979 revolution that ended the centuries‑old monarchy.This year’s commemoration carries added weight as the capital endures relentless U.S.-Israeli bombardments that began on February 28."This war has lasted a month. No matter how long it takes, we will keep fighting," declared Moussa Nowruzi, a 57‑year‑old pensioner, adding, "We will resist until the end."Among the mourners, a young boy brandished a sign reading "Revenge", while massive Iranian flags fluttered as crowds filled Enghelab Square, the heart of the city named after the revolution.Chants of "God is greatest, Khamenei is the supreme leader" echoed through the square, and a man was seen sobbing in the arms of a woman dressed in black.Participants also honored relatives lost in the conflict, their faces displayed on placards, as Tangsiri’s coffin was carried slowly through the gathering.Tangsiri, one of the IRGC’s longest‑serving senior officers, was credited with orchestrating the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to vessels aligned with the United States and Israel during the ongoing war.Later that day, U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the nation on television, reiterating that the war was inevitable and that America intended to "finish the job" in Iran.Trump previously claimed that Iran’s president had sought a truce—a statement Tehran denied—and warned that bombardments would continue until the Hormuz waterway was "open, free, and clear."Funeral attendees dismissed the president’s threats. "We have heard Trump say things that even the American public finds confusing," said Homa Vosoogh, 36, adding, "His statements do not affect us."Government employee Mohammad Saleh Momeni echoed the sentiment, asserting that Trump "cannot translate his words into action" and reaffirming their loyalty to Iran’s leadership.While the United States and Israel initially framed their campaign as a push for regime change, Trump’s stance has since wavered.According to the report, air strikes have claimed the life of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who led Iran for 36 years, yet the governing structure remains functional, retaining its missile and drone capabilities.Portraits of the late leader and his son Mojtaba Khamenei, who has yet to appear publicly, dominate public spaces throughout Tehran."They believe killing our commanders will weaken us, but it will not," Momeni asserted, describing the adversaries’ misconceptions.Despite a wave of anti‑government protests that peaked in January, a segment of the population continues to harbor hopes for political reform.

Beirut, Lebanon – On 24 March, Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi announced that Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mohammad Reza Sheibani, was declared persona non grata and ordered to depart by 29 March. Two days after the deadline, the envoy remained in Beirut, refusing to leave. The episode unfolds against a broader conflict that has already claimed more than 1,000 lives and displaced over 1.2 million people within a single month of Israeli military action in Lebanon. It also highlights a deepening schism in Lebanese politics between supporters of the pro‑Iranian Shia militia Hezbollah and those demanding its disarmament. Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University, told Al Jazeera that the ambassador’s defiance is a symptom of a larger contest over legitimacy and authority. IRGC’s Strategic Role Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) helped forge Hezbollah in 1982 as a response to Israel’s invasion. Over the decades, Tehran’s billions of dollars in funding elevated Hezbollah to Lebanon’s most powerful political and military force. Hezbollah’s popularity peaked in 2000 after driving Israeli forces from south Lebanon, but subsequent engagements—including the 2006 war, the 2008 Beirut street battles, the Syrian civil war, and the 2019 domestic protests—have eroded its broader support. When Hezbollah entered open conflict with Israel on 8 October 2023, it enjoyed limited backing beyond the Shia community. By the November 2024 cease‑fire, the group was at a low point, with Israel having killed more than 4,000 Lebanese, including leader Hassan Nasrallah and much of Hezbollah’s command. International pressure then mounted for Hezbollah’s disarmament, prompting Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun to prioritize the issue. According to several analysts, the IRGC exploited the cease‑fire lull to dispatch officials to Lebanon, restructuring Hezbollah’s command and possibly ordering its re‑entry into the war on 2 March—just days after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated. Prime Minister Salam has publicly claimed the IRGC is “managing the military operation in Lebanon” and even accused Tehran of launching an attack on Cyprus. Ambassador Refuses to Exit In response to the perceived IRGC influence, Raggi’s declaration stripped Sheibani of diplomatic immunity. Dania Arayssi, senior analyst at the New Lines Institute, described the move as a “landmark decision” given Iran’s entrenched role in Lebanese politics. Iran’s Foreign Ministry, however, maintains that Sheibani will not depart, and Hezbollah has openly pledged to protect him, warning that any government attempt to disarm the militia will be met with “punishment.” Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri—longtime Hezbollah ally—initially backed the government’s ban on Hezbollah’s military activity after the March re‑entry, illustrating the fluidity of alliances within Lebanon’s power‑sharing system. State Authority Tested Hezbollah’s renewed campaign, which includes dozens of cross‑border attacks and direct engagements with Israeli forces on Lebanese soil, is reshaping the political calculus. The militia’s revived confidence challenges the Lebanese government’s ability to enforce disarmament. While the ambassador remains protected inside the Iranian diplomatic compound—effectively beyond the reach of Lebanese law—critics argue that Tehran’s refusal to honor the expulsion order undermines the state’s authority, already weakened by months of war. Salamey summed up the dilemma: “The state is asserting its authority on paper, but internal divisions and competing claims of legitimacy constrain its practical power, testing the limits of Lebanon’s fragile power‑sharing arrangement.”

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) released a stark assessment on Tuesday, projecting that a four‑week US‑Israel conflict with Iran could slash Arab regional GDP by 3.7 % to 6 %. In monetary terms, the loss translates to a contraction of $120 billion to $194 billion, marking one of the deepest economic shocks in recent Middle‑East history. UNDP’s regional director, Abdallah Al Dardari, warned that the downturn would likely eliminate 3.7 million jobs and drive around four million additional people below the poverty line. He described the situation as exposing the “fragility of the Arab economy.” The analysis is based on a scenario of a “short but intense conflict lasting for four weeks.” Should hostilities extend beyond that window, the economic fallout could be even more severe, especially as Iran’s attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure tighten oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Amid tightening supplies, Brent crude futures surged 4.7 % to over $118 per barrel. The report highlighted that disruptions to “strategic maritime corridors” generate “knock‑on effects on inflation, trade flows, and global supply chains,” threatening the livelihoods of interconnected economies across the region. Poverty spikes are expected to be most pronounced in the Levant and in “fragile” states such as Sudan and Yemen, where baseline vulnerability is already high and economic shocks translate quickly into welfare losses. Lebanon faces a compounded crisis after Hezbollah’s retaliatory strikes against Israel, following the US‑Israeli killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February. Ongoing air strikes, evacuation orders, and widespread destruction of residential areas, transport networks, and public services have triggered large‑scale displacement. Al Dardari concluded with a plea: “We hope the fighting will stop tomorrow, as every day of delay has negative repercussions on the global economy.”

The recent dynamics between the United States and Israel have sparked concerns about their unintended impact on Iran's influence in the Middle East. Critics argue that the aggressive stance taken by these countries may inadvertently play into Iran's hands, potentially bolstering its position. Iran, under the leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei, has been navigating complex geopolitical relationships. The country's strategic interests and diplomatic maneuvers are often scrutinized for their implications on regional stability. The policies pursued by the US and Israel have been criticized for their potential to galvanize support for Iran among its allies and within the Muslim world. This could lead to a strengthening of Iran's influence, both diplomatically and economically. Experts suggest that a nuanced approach to Iran's geopolitical role is necessary, one that considers the long-term consequences of current policies. The international community remains watchful, as shifts in Iran's influence could have far-reaching implications for global politics and security.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has issued a stern warning to neighboring countries, urging them not to allow the US and Israel to use their territory to launch attacks against Iran. In a post on X, Pezeshkian emphasized that Iran does not initiate preemptive attacks but will strongly retaliate if its infrastructure or economic centers are targeted. “To the countries of the region: If you want development and security, don’t let our enemies run the war from your lands,” Pezeshkian stated. This message is part of a broader effort by Iran to prevent the escalation of the ongoing conflict with the US and Israel. The conflict began on February 28, when the US and Israel launched air strikes across Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since then, the situation has shown no signs of de-escalation, with Israel announcing daily strikes on Iran and Tehran continuing to target its arch-rival and countries hosting US military assets. In recent developments, several Gulf states have been targeted in attacks. In Kuwait, multiple drone attacks damaged the international airport's radar system, while in Abu Dhabi, strikes caused debris to fall near the Khalifa Economic Zone, injuring six people. Iran's military claimed to have struck a Ukrainian anti-drone system depot in Dubai, which it alleged supported US forces. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also urged regional countries to distance themselves from the US, reiterating Iran's stance that it will not tolerate the use of neighboring territories for hostile actions. The conflict has resulted in significant disruptions across the region, with at least 15 American soldiers wounded in an Iranian attack on a Saudi airbase on Friday. The situation remains volatile, with alarm sirens activated in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia's defense ministry reporting ballistic missile and drone attacks, all of which were allegedly shot down.

Islamabad has re‑emerged as a pivotal conduit between Washington and Tehran, delivering a U.S. 15‑point cease‑fire proposal on March 25, 2026, as the US‑Israeli campaign against Iran enters its second month. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar confirmed that Pakistan is transmitting the proposal, with Turkey and Egypt offering additional diplomatic backing. Chief US negotiator Steve Witkoff later verified Pakistan’s role as a messenger, and President Donald Trump announced a 10‑day pause on planned strikes against Iranian power plants, citing a request from Tehran. Iran has denied direct talks, yet the pause marks the second deferment of Trump’s original threat, underscoring Pakistan’s function as a key diplomatic facilitator in a high‑stakes conflict. The pattern is not new. In August 1969, President Nixon tasked Pakistan’s military ruler Yahya Khan with opening a channel to Beijing. Two years later, a secret flight carried U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger from Islamabad to China, paving the way for Nixon’s historic 1972 visit and the eventual U.S. recognition of the People’s Republic of China. Analysts note that Pakistan’s unique position—maintaining working ties with both Washington and Beijing—made it the only trusted intermediary capable of handling such a sensitive mission, a view echoed by former ambassador Masood Khan. Beyond the Cold‑War episode, Pakistan has repeatedly leveraged its geography and Muslim‑world connections. It served as the primary conduit for U.S., Saudi and Chinese support to the Afghan mujahideen in the 1980s, helped broker the 1988 Geneva Accords that ended the Soviet occupation, and hosted the 2015 Murree talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. During the 2020 Doha Agreement, Pakistani pressure on the Taliban was cited by U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad as instrumental, though the rapid U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Taliban takeover left Pakistan’s long‑term interests ambiguous. Efforts to mediate Saudi‑Iran tensions have been less fruitful. In 2016, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s shuttle diplomacy failed to produce a formal agreement, and a 2019 outreach by Prime Minister Imran Khan, prompted by President Trump, yielded no concrete outcome. When China facilitated the 2023 Saudi‑Iran rapprochement, Pakistan’s foreign office claimed it had laid the groundwork, but analysts still view the result as a Chinese‑led success. Pakistan’s brief 2005 overture to Israel, led by Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, similarly collapsed under domestic opposition, illustrating the limits of its diplomatic reach when internal politics intervene. Since the launch of Operation Epic Fury—the US‑Israeli air campaign that began in late February 2026 and resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—Pakistan’s leadership has intensified back‑channel activity. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has held multiple calls with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, while Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir spoke directly with President Trump. Both officials have also visited Saudi Arabia, where Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact in September 2025. Former ambassador Naghmana Hashmi observes that Pakistan’s diplomatic narrative is often eclipsed by conflict, yet a “quieter, more consistent thread” persists: the state’s effort to turn its strategic location and Muslim‑world ties into a lever for peace. Whether the current cease‑fire talks will yield a durable settlement remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Pakistan enjoys a rare blend of trust from Washington, Tehran and Gulf capitals—a leverage few regional actors possess.

The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has issued a grave warning that Lebanon faces the threat of a humanitarian catastrophe as Israel continues its weeks-long bombardment and expands ground operations across the country.UNHCR's Lebanon representative Karolina Lindholm Billing reported that Israeli strikes and forced displacement orders have affected people throughout Lebanon, from the southern regions to the Bekaa Valley, Beirut, and northern areas. More than 1.2 million people have been forced from their homes since Israel's intensified attacks began in early March, according to UN figures."The situation remains extremely worrying and the risk of a humanitarian catastrophe ... is real," Lindholm Billing stated during a briefing in Geneva. She emphasized that Lebanon's overstretched shelter system is struggling to meet the growing needs of displaced families.The UN representative highlighted particularly concerning developments, including strikes on central Beirut's densely populated neighborhoods where many had sought refuge in collective shelters. "The families are ... living in constant fear, and the psychological toll, particularly on children, will last far beyond this current escalation," she added.Israel launched its intensified attacks against Lebanon after Hezbollah fired rockets toward Israeli territory following the February 28 assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the US-Israel war on Iran. The Israeli military has since conducted aerial and ground operations across Lebanon while issuing mass forced displacement orders for residents of southern areas and several Beirut suburbs.On Friday, the Israeli military announced air strikes on Beirut and issued new displacement orders for neighborhoods including Haret Hreik and Burj al-Barajneh. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has continued rocket attacks into northern Israel and confrontations with Israeli troops in southern Lebanon.Rights groups have strongly condemned Israel's expanded operations, with Human Rights Watch warning that preventing Lebanese civilians from returning to their homes in the south may constitute the war crime of forced displacement. "Israel's tactics of mass expulsion in Lebanon raise serious risks of forced displacement," the organization stated. "Forced displacement and collective punishment are war crimes."International concerns have been further heightened by the Israeli military's destruction of civilian homes and several bridges connecting southern Lebanon to the rest of the country. "The destruction of key bridges in the south has cut off entire districts ... isolating over 150,000 people and severely limiting humanitarian access," Lindholm Billing explained.As the crisis deepens, Lebanon's government faces mounting challenges in responding to the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation, with evacuation orders now extending to areas previously considered safe, exacerbating panic among the civilian population.

Iran's regime has organised over 850 public demonstrations in support of the government since the beginning of the war, showcasing its resilience amid a month-long campaign of intensive airstrikes by the US and Israel. The high number of pro-regime gatherings and the increasing number of detentions underline the regime's determination to maintain control.The war began with a surprise Israeli strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, and many senior officials. Despite this, the regime has not fragmented, and there are no defections. Experts say the messaging within Iran is that they are winning, and this is constant and consistent.Clionadh Raleigh, president of Acled, an independent conflict monitor, noted that the US-Israeli decapitation strategy could not have been more successful, but the regime has adapted. The Acled research also shows that the number of US and Israeli strikes on Iran has remained steady at between 47 and 102 attacks daily that have caused significant civilian casualties.Tehran's retaliation has been largely ineffective, causing only 70 fatalities during the war, compared with 1,157 killed inside Iran, of whom 341 have been identified as civilians. The researchers noted that 99.2% of protests were pro-regime, indicating a coordinated effort to show nationalist consolidation under external attack.The arrest campaign is the regime's primary domestic tool, with approximately 1,465-plus detained in 27 days. Charges escalated from 'filming damage' to 'espionage' and 'mercenary' as the conflict progressed. Details of such repression are difficult to obtain, but recent incidents include the deaths of 10 people when Revolutionary Guards fired on anti-regime demonstrators and shot at apartment windows in Tehran on 25 March.Estimates of civilian casualties vary, with over 1,900 people killed and at least 20,000 injured in Iran since the start of US and Israeli attacks, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). The US-based Human Rights Activists news agency (HRANA) said 3,300 people had been killed since the war began, including 1,464 civilians and at least 217 children.