Iran's Resilience Tested: Over 850 Pro-Regime Protests Amid US-Israeli Strikes

Iran's regime has organised over 850 public demonstrations in support of the government since the beginning of the war, showcasing its resilience amid a month-long campaign of intensive airstrikes by the US and Israel. The high number of pro-regime gatherings and the increasing number of detentions underline the regime's determination to maintain control.

The war began with a surprise Israeli strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, and many senior officials. Despite this, the regime has not fragmented, and there are no defections. Experts say the messaging within Iran is that they are winning, and this is constant and consistent.

Clionadh Raleigh, president of Acled, an independent conflict monitor, noted that the US-Israeli decapitation strategy could not have been more successful, but the regime has adapted. The Acled research also shows that the number of US and Israeli strikes on Iran has remained steady at between 47 and 102 attacks daily that have caused significant civilian casualties.

Tehran's retaliation has been largely ineffective, causing only 70 fatalities during the war, compared with 1,157 killed inside Iran, of whom 341 have been identified as civilians. The researchers noted that 99.2% of protests were pro-regime, indicating a coordinated effort to show nationalist consolidation under external attack.

The arrest campaign is the regime's primary domestic tool, with approximately 1,465-plus detained in 27 days. Charges escalated from 'filming damage' to 'espionage' and 'mercenary' as the conflict progressed. Details of such repression are difficult to obtain, but recent incidents include the deaths of 10 people when Revolutionary Guards fired on anti-regime demonstrators and shot at apartment windows in Tehran on 25 March.

Estimates of civilian casualties vary, with over 1,900 people killed and at least 20,000 injured in Iran since the start of US and Israeli attacks, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). The US-based Human Rights Activists news agency (HRANA) said 3,300 people had been killed since the war began, including 1,464 civilians and at least 217 children.