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The ceasefire deal between Iran and the US has been hailed as a significant achievement for China, which has been actively working to promote de-escalation and an end to hostilities in the region. Beijing's powerbrokers are being credited with pushing Iran towards agreeing to the ceasefire, bolstering its status as a regional mediator.In China's tightly censored domestic media, articles basking in the glory of China being the grown-up in the room at a time of international crisis were allowed to circulate. China's role in the negotiations was confirmed by US President Donald Trump, who told the Agence France-Presse news agency that he believed China had got Iran to agree to a ceasefire.However, some analysts are sceptical about how influential China could actually have been in the late-night discussions. The deal is advantageous to Iran, and encouraging the regime to agree to it would have been like 'pushing an open door', according to one analyst. Nicholas Lyall, a senior researcher at Trends, a research and advisory firm in Abu Dhabi, said: 'In terms of whether China had to do much pushing of Iran for it to agree to the temporary ceasefire, and whether Iran was swayed by this reported Chinese effort, it's essential to clarify what Iran has actually agreed to.'Officially, China has not confirmed or denied reports that it played an active role in the Islamabad negotiations. At a press conference on Wednesday, the foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said only that China 'had been actively working to promote de-escalation and an end to all hostilities'. China's economic interests are also at stake, as the risk of a global recession and soaring fossil fuel prices poses a threat to the Chinese economy, which is heavily dependent on exports.Analysts are even more sceptical of the idea that China might act as the guarantor of any ceasefire agreement in the Middle East. Song Bo, a fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said: 'China doesn't have a direct stake with any of the parties in the Middle East. Acting as a guarantor for a ceasefire would be an extremely high-cost diplomatic undertaking, and I don't think China would commit to that easily.'

The Israeli army carried out 100 simultaneous attacks across Lebanon, including the capital Beirut, resulting in 254 people killed and more than 1,000 others injured, according to the Lebanese Civil Defense Directorate.The attacks have raised concerns about the potential impact on the US-Iran ceasefire, with the situation being closely monitored by international observers.The Israeli attacks have caused extensive damage in Beirut's Corniche El-Mazraa area, with a residential building lying in ruins and surrounding structures showing heavy damage.

Oil tanker workers stuck in the Gulf for six weeks are reaching their limit, with mental health concerns escalating due to the prolonged standoff. A crew member, who spoke to the Guardian, revealed that the situation is becoming increasingly unbearable.The worker, one of 20,000 seafarers trapped by Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, expressed frustration and despair, stating that any hope of being freed had evaporated. The crew member's tanker is anchored near dozens of loaded tankers, with many feeling unwilling and unable to traverse the strait, even if a ceasefire allowed them to do so.90% of the crew on the tanker want to exercise their right to refuse to sail, citing safety concerns. The situation has taken a toll on the crew's mental health, with one member suffering a 'mental breakdown' and being checked on regularly by colleagues.The International Transport Workers' Federation (ITF) has received about 1,000 inquiries from seafarers on 300 different vessels, with 20% seeking repatriation. The union and other organizations are trying to provide support, but the situation remains dire.The shipping companies are expected to find new crew members willing to work in hazardous areas, offering double pay and promotions. However, the workers stuck on the tankers hope that their vessel will be taken to anchorage to allow new crew to take their places.The situation has reignited calls for shipowners to replace their crews with mariners willing to offer relief, highlighting the human cost of the conflict.

Oil and gas markets rallied on Thursday as investors grappled with the shaky outlook for the two‑week Iran‑Israel ceasefire. Brent crude rose more than 2% to $96.77 a barrel, while New York light crude climbed nearly 3% to $97.23, still shy of the $100 threshold that many traders watch. The previous session had seen Brent plunge 13.29% to a four‑week low of $94.75. In the gas sector, the UK month‑ahead contract rebounded 1% to 115.35p per therm after a 15% drop the day before. European natural‑gas futures also recovered, edging toward €46/MWh from a five‑week trough of €45.30. The price uptick reflects growing scepticism about the durability of the ceasefire announced a day earlier by the United States and Iran, which included a pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. UAE and Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian drones, and Iran’s parliamentary speaker accused the United States and Israel of breaching several agreement points. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned of a “regret‑inducing response” if Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue. The latest Israeli barrage killed at least 254 people and wounded 837, prompting the Fars news agency to note that oil‑tanker traffic through the strait had been halted. Former President Donald Trump used his Truth Social platform to threaten that U.S. forces would remain in the region until a “real agreement” is fully honoured, warning that any non‑compliance would trigger “stronger than anyone has ever seen before” military action. Asian equity markets reacted negatively: Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.7%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged down 0.4%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 dipped 0.1%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.3%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB slipped 0.2%. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 trimmed 0.1% after a near‑4% rally the day before, while U.S. futures pointed to a lower opening on Wall Street. Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid noted that market stress has eased compared with 24 hours earlier, as the ceasefire news generated renewed optimism and reduced fears of a stagflationary shock. On the diplomatic front, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that Vice‑President JD Vance will lead a delegation to Islamabad, with initial talks slated for Saturday morning. Jefferies chief European economist Mohit Kumar argued that, despite its fragility, the truce is likely to hold because of the “mutually assured destruction” calculus. He added that both sides now see a ceasefire as the lesser‑evil, given the escalating costs of continued conflict and the strategic challenges of securing cheap drone interceptors and a reliable Hormuz passage.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte revealed that Donald Trump was 'clearly disappointed' that US allies refused to join the war against Iran during a closed-door meeting in Washington. This comes as the alliance faces scrutiny over its response to the conflict.Rutte described the meeting with Trump as 'very frank, very open' between 'two good friends,' but declined to directly address whether Trump raised his threat to withdraw from NATO over the Iran war.The meeting occurred against the backdrop of a fragile two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This agreement was reached after Trump threatened to target Iran's civilian infrastructure if Tehran didn't allow safe passage through the strait.Trump has been critical of NATO, calling it a 'paper tiger' and suggesting the US may consider leaving after NATO member countries ignored his call for military assistance to help reopen the critical waterway. Global oil prices have soared due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote: 'NATO WASN'T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON'T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN.' Trump's frustrations with the alliance 'began' with their opposition to his desired takeover of Greenland.Despite these tensions, Republican senator Mitch McConnell issued a statement in support of the alliance, urging Trump to be 'clear and consistent' and emphasizing that it's not in America's interest to 'spend more time nursing grudges with allies who share our interests than deterring adversaries who threaten us.'Congress passed a law in 2023 that prevents any US president from pulling out of NATO without its approval, championed by Trump's current secretary of state, Marco Rubio.

At least 50 new accounts on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, made substantial bets on a US-Iran ceasefire on Tuesday, resulting in profits of hundreds of thousands of dollars. These bets were placed despite escalating rhetoric from Donald Trump and few signals of an imminent deal.An analysis of blockchain data shows that one wallet, created on Tuesday at 10am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8¢ and cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another wallet, which joined the platform on April 6, won $125,500.The trading pattern of newly created accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets has raised questions about insider trading and the need for regulation in prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators and representatives have introduced legislation to broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.“This is why these markets need regulation,” said Todd Phillips, a professor at Georgia State University. “We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”Polymarket and other industry players, including Kalshi, have acknowledged the need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms.

Lebanon's prime minister expressed approval for a recently announced US‑Iran ceasefire, describing it as a hopeful step toward de‑escalation in the Middle East. The endorsement came at a time when Israeli strikes targeted areas of Beirut, causing renewed concern over civilian safety and regional stability. While the ceasefire signals a potential cooling of tensions between Washington and Tehran, the ongoing Israeli operations highlight the complex and often contradictory dynamics shaping the conflict landscape.

Pakistan's diplomatic efforts culminated in a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, agreed upon just hours before US President Donald Trump's deadline to destroy Iran's 'civilisation'. The ceasefire was announced by Trump on his social media platform, Truth Social, and confirmed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.The breakthrough was facilitated by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, who engaged in extensive diplomacy with both sides. Sharif publicly announced the ceasefire, inviting both delegations to Islamabad for further negotiations. The talks are expected to begin on Friday, potentially involving a US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance.The conflict, which began on February 28, had killed over 2,000 people in Iran and disrupted roughly a fifth of the world's oil supplies. Pakistan's role as a mediator was seen as a significant diplomatic achievement, with both Washington and Tehran acknowledging its efforts.The ceasefire is not a peace deal, and key differences remain unresolved, including Iran's uranium enrichment and the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts view Pakistan's role as a major shift in its diplomatic efforts, positioning itself at the centre of a significant diplomatic initiative.

In a shocking escalation of violence, civilians in Gaza's Maghazi camp were caught in the crossfire as rival armed groups clashed, leaving 10 people dead and 44 injured. The incident occurred on Monday, with eyewitnesses describing scenes of panic and chaos as armed men stormed homes and a school run by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).The violence began when armed groups approached from the direction of the "yellow line" that separates Palestinian and Israeli-controlled areas of Gaza. The groups, allegedly backed by Israeli forces, moved towards civilian homes and the Al-Maghazi Preparatory Boys School, which is sheltering large numbers of displaced people.Residents reported that the armed men, who identified themselves as the "Popular Forces combating terrorism", a rival group to Hamas, broke into homes, detained family members, and used the houses as cover during the battle. The family of Asaad Nteel, who was caught up in the violence, described being ordered to gather in one room and not move, fearing harm to themselves and their children.The clashes, which lasted for over an hour and a half, caused extreme distress to residents, who do not support these groups. Local people claim the armed men were provided with cover and support by Israeli forces, with some eyewitnesses reporting the use of armed drones to aid the armed men's withdrawal.The Palestinian Centre for Human Rights has documented previous violence by these groups, including looting of aid convoys, kidnappings, torture, and killings, with cover or support from the Israeli army. The centre has called for an urgent independent investigation, accountability for those responsible, and effective protection for civilians.The incident has sparked widespread outrage on social media, with activists sharing videos documenting victims being transported to hospitals. The violence has also raised concerns about the emerging armed groups in Gaza, which appear to operate near areas along the "yellow line".Since the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas supposedly began on October 11, 733 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, and 2,034 injured, in addition to 759 bodies recovered. The situation remains dire, with civilians continuing to bear the brunt of the conflict.