China Emerges as Key Player in Iran-US Ceasefire Talks

The ceasefire deal between Iran and the US has been hailed as a significant achievement for China, which has been actively working to promote de-escalation and an end to hostilities in the region. Beijing's powerbrokers are being credited with pushing Iran towards agreeing to the ceasefire, bolstering its status as a regional mediator.

In China's tightly censored domestic media, articles basking in the glory of China being the grown-up in the room at a time of international crisis were allowed to circulate. China's role in the negotiations was confirmed by US President Donald Trump, who told the Agence France-Presse news agency that he believed China had got Iran to agree to a ceasefire.

However, some analysts are sceptical about how influential China could actually have been in the late-night discussions. The deal is advantageous to Iran, and encouraging the regime to agree to it would have been like 'pushing an open door', according to one analyst. Nicholas Lyall, a senior researcher at Trends, a research and advisory firm in Abu Dhabi, said: 'In terms of whether China had to do much pushing of Iran for it to agree to the temporary ceasefire, and whether Iran was swayed by this reported Chinese effort, it's essential to clarify what Iran has actually agreed to.'

Officially, China has not confirmed or denied reports that it played an active role in the Islamabad negotiations. At a press conference on Wednesday, the foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said only that China 'had been actively working to promote de-escalation and an end to all hostilities'. China's economic interests are also at stake, as the risk of a global recession and soaring fossil fuel prices poses a threat to the Chinese economy, which is heavily dependent on exports.

Analysts are even more sceptical of the idea that China might act as the guarantor of any ceasefire agreement in the Middle East. Song Bo, a fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said: 'China doesn't have a direct stake with any of the parties in the Middle East. Acting as a guarantor for a ceasefire would be an extremely high-cost diplomatic undertaking, and I don't think China would commit to that easily.'