New Polymarket Accounts Cash In on Well-Timed Iran Ceasefire Bets

At least 50 new accounts on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, made substantial bets on a US-Iran ceasefire on Tuesday, resulting in profits of hundreds of thousands of dollars. These bets were placed despite escalating rhetoric from Donald Trump and few signals of an imminent deal.

An analysis of blockchain data shows that one wallet, created on Tuesday at 10am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8¢ and cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another wallet, which joined the platform on April 6, won $125,500.

The trading pattern of newly created accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets has raised questions about insider trading and the need for regulation in prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators and representatives have introduced legislation to broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.

“This is why these markets need regulation,” said Todd Phillips, a professor at Georgia State University. “We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”

Polymarket and other industry players, including Kalshi, have acknowledged the need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms.