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The Lead: Aviation Leaders Converge in Rio Amid Fuel CrisisDespite concerns about soaring jet fuel prices and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains, aviation industry leaders have gathered in Rio de Janeiro for the annual International Air Transport Association (Iata) AGM. The summit, which was abandoned during the Covid years and held online since, marks a return to in-person gatherings as the industry continues to navigate unprecedented challenges.The Fuel Crisis: Rising Costs and Supply Chain ChallengesJet fuel prices have surged dramatically, climbing from just over $80 a barrel at the last summit in Delhi to over $140 a barrel currently. Despite the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran affecting oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, airlines have largely maintained operations. European carriers, initially seen as most vulnerable, have continued flying full schedules ahead of the lucrative peak season, with new fuel sources found in the US and West Africa to address supply concerns.The Financial Impact: Billions in Additional Costs and Market TurmoilAccording to aviation analysts Cirium, jet fuel constituted over a quarter of global airlines' costs in 2025. Every dollar increase per barrel adds approximately $3 billion to the annual fuel bill. In response, about 6% of available seats have been removed from airline schedules worldwide over the past month. Many major carriers have hedged their fuel supplies to mitigate price shocks, though some like easyJet have suspended hedging due to extreme volatility. The financial pressures have already resulted in easyJet becoming a takeover target for US private equity firm Castlelake.The Industry Transformation: Geopolitical Shifts and Market ConsolidationThe US-Israel-Iran conflict has particularly impacted Gulf carriers whose geographic position and rapid growth had reshaped global travel patterns. Emirates, one of the industry's most influential players, will be an unusually quiet presence at the Rio summit with its chief executive absent. Meanwhile, environmental concerns about aviation's carbon footprint have taken a backseat to immediate financial pressures, though fuel efficiency remains a priority as it directly impacts costs. The industry is also facing potential consolidation, with easyJet's tumbling share price attracting takeover interest and other carriers potentially vulnerable to acquisition or bankruptcy.The Future Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty and Leadership TransitionAs the industry faces prolonged uncertainty, Iata's director general Willie Walsh has announced his departure after leading the organization since 2020, with plans to take over as CEO of India's Indigo airline. Walsh had previously championed sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) as the industry's only viable solution but has since criticized governments for imposing mandates while production has faltered. The summit in Rio will likely focus on immediate survival strategies rather than long-term environmental goals, with airlines demonstrating resilience despite the challenges. The question remains how long this resilience can continue as fuel prices remain elevated and geopolitical tensions persist.

The Lead: EU Fuel Supply Remains Stable Amid Regional Conflict Despite growing concerns among holidaymakers about potential fuel shortages due to the Middle East crisis, the European Union's transport commissioner has assured there are no signs of jet fuel shortages in Europe currently or in the coming months. This assurance comes as airlines continue to operate with some adjusting routes and raising prices to offset higher fuel costs. The Transport Commissioner's Assessment: Current Fuel Supply Situation European Union Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas has explicitly stated that "There is currently no jet fuel shortage in Europe. We have no signs that we will have a shortage in the coming period." This assessment comes despite the ongoing Middle East conflict and lack of progress to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for oil supplies. Tzitzikostas noted that high jet fuel prices have prompted airlines to cut uneconomic routes, explaining: "This is why we see that some airlines are choosing to cancel some of their routes that didn't make any economic sense." In May alone, airlines cut two million airline seats from their schedules, representing less than 2% of global aviation capacity. The Market Response: Airlines Adjusting to Higher Fuel Costs The aviation industry has responded to soaring fuel prices through several strategies: Route optimization and cancellation of unprofitable routes Increased ticket prices to pass on higher fuel costs Reduced demand through higher fares These measures represent a form of "demand destruction" as high energy costs naturally reduce consumption. British Airways, for example, has implemented fare increases attempting to offset a £1.7 billion fuel cost hit, demonstrating the significant financial pressure airlines face. The Future Outlook: Potential Crisis by Year-End While current fuel supplies remain stable, Tzitzikostas offered a warning about the longer-term outlook: "It's critical that the war stops and that the Strait of Hormuz opens and this needs to happen as soon as possible.... We should always keep in mind that Europe is prepared. We have the emergency stocks in our member states." The commissioner suggested that "the situation would be 'very difficult' by the end of the year if Middle Eastern supplies remained disrupted." This cautionary note comes seven weeks after the head of the International Energy Agency warned that Europe had only six weeks of jet fuel remaining before potential shortages would hit. Regional Economic Impact: Consumer Behavior and Market Stability The broader economic impact of the fuel situation extends beyond aviation. Recent data shows UK consumers returning to high streets as spring sunshine brought relief to retailers who have faced spending constraints since the US-Israel war on Iran began. Consumer confidence surveys indicate a rebound in May as shoppers adjusted to the sharp rise in petrol and diesel prices linked to the Middle East conflict that began in late February. Despite these challenges, European authorities maintain that current market conditions reflect "a certain degree of stability" with emergency stocks available if needed. The situation continues to evolve as the summer travel season approaches, with both consumers and airlines closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and global fuel markets.

The LeadTelevision viewers are in for a diverse lineup tonight, with Emilia Clarke taking center stage in a cold war spy drama, culinary competition reaching its finale, and international football action. The evening offers something for every taste, from reality dating shows to historical documentaries and supernatural westerns.Emilia Clarke's Cold War Spy Drama9pm, Sky AtlanticEmilia Clarke learned Russian for this exciting cold war comedy drama and continues to flex her impressive skills as US spy Bea. She prepares to go on a date with a KGB agent to strengthen her cover, and gets some tips from Twila. Meanwhile, Twila is also taking secret calls to investigate a number of sex worker murders.Culinary Competition at Its Peak8pm, BBC OneAfter an intense Chef's Table stage at Opheem in Birmingham, where the finalists prepared sand carrot in eight different ways for Michelin-starred chefs, the remaining trio now face their toughest challenge. They must create their best three-course menus in just three hours for the judges.Garden Inspiration for Viewers8pm, BBC TwoThe roses are peaking at Longmeadow, giving Monty Don the chance to celebrate England's favourite flower in all its various guises. There are tips for viewers whose blooms aren't quite in bloom, while Brighton's city garden shows what can be achieved in cramped urban spaces, and a Bedfordshire plot full of succulents demonstrates tropical gardening possibilities.Summer Travel Concerns8pm, Channel 4With headlines suggesting that the Iran war is sending jet fuel prices soaring and causing flight cancellations, Kate Quilton investigates whether there's more chance of getting stuck abroad this summer or if airlines might actually start offering super bargains to compete.National Trust's Hidden Treasures9pm, BBC TwoAnother trip behind the velvet ropes to witness the restoration efforts of National Trust staff. At Snowshill Manor in the Cotswolds, a child's suit of lacquered samurai armour requires some serious TLC, while at Calke Abbey in Derbyshire a variety of historic stuffed birds need their feathers unruffled.Love Stories Across Generations10pm, Channel 4Love can strike at any age, as this week's visit to Cupid's restaurant proves. On one table, 62-year-old hairdresser Liz has a promising night with builder Paul. Over on another table, 19-year-olds Rue and Kaitlyn are only just dipping their toes into the world of dating.Film Highlights for TonightDead Man's Wire (Gus Van Sant, 2025), 8am, 8pm, Sky Cinema PremiereThe spirit of the Al Pacino classic Dog Day Afternoon is alive and well in Gus Van Sant's drama. Bill Skarsgård is all gangly, edgy energy as Tony Kiritsis, a low-level Indianapolis land developer who takes ML Hall's son hostage using a contraption connected to a shotgun.Devil in the Dust (Ned Crowley, 2025), Paramount+This western is knocked off-kilter almost immediately when a cute little blond girl kills a horse by touching it. The supernatural frisson never really goes away as we follow Guy Pearce's grizzled, ether-addicted doctor Bender on a quest to a preacher who can supposedly take out the devil in the girl.Live Sports ActionWomen's World Cup Football, Spain v England, 7.30pm, ITV1A qualifier in Palma, Mallorca brings together these two footballing nations in an important match that could impact their standings in the tournament.

The Approval of Poke on Apple's Messages for Business Poke, a startup that turns using AI agents into something as simple as sending a text message, has become the first AI agent approved to run on Apple's Messages for Business platform. This platform, previously limited to partnered businesses such as airlines, retailers, and hotel chains, offers a standardized interface for business messaging that supports both automated chat systems and live agents. How Poke's AI Agent Works Poke, launched in March, is designed to be accessible to everyday users who don't have the technical skill set or inclination to work with command-line tools or more complex agentic systems. The AI service operates over SMS, Telegram, and WhatsApp, and now, it will be able to add iMessage to its supported platforms. Poke can help with common activities like daily planning, managing calendars, tracking health and fitness, controlling smart homes, editing photos, and more, all via text message. The Business Model and Impact Poke has relayed some 100 million messages to date. The startup will pay Apple on a per-user basis, with a pricing model significantly lower than Meta AI. This approval and business model open up new opportunities for Apple, as it allows consumers to interact with businesses through iMessage's interface directly. The Future of AI Agents on Apple's Platform Getting Apple's approval required Poke to verify it could offer live support and that its AI agent was clearly identified as such. The approval process took a couple of months, and it will likely take other companies a similar amount of time to get through this process. The future of AI agents on Apple's Messages for Business platform looks promising, with Poke being the first but potentially not the only one. The Prediction As Apple prepares for its Worldwide Developers Conference, where it's expected to introduce an AI-optimized version of Siri and other AI tools, the approval of Poke on its Messages for Business platform signals a growing support for AI agents. It's likely that more AI agents will be integrated into the platform, providing users with a wider range of services and businesses with new ways to interact with customers.

The K-Shaped Economy: A Growing Divide The concept of the K-shaped economy captures the stark contrast between the experiences of wealthy and non-wealthy Americans. The line of the K that angles sharply upward to the right represents the wealthy, while the line that dips downward represents those who are struggling. Trump's Policies: A Boon for the Wealthy Trump's policies have exacerbated the K-shaped economy, with the wealthy seeing significant gains while the majority of Americans struggle. The S&P; 500 and other stock indices have hit record highs, benefiting the richest 10% of Americans who own 93% of all stock. The Data Analysis: A Stark Contrast The data paints a stark picture of the growing wealth gap. Hourly earnings have risen by only 3% since 2019, while corporate profits have jumped by 50%. The richest 10% of Americans account for nearly half of all consumer spending, masking the struggles of those on the bottom end of the K. The Impact Analysis: A Tale of Two Americas The K-shaped economy is visible in many aspects of American life. Airlines are adding more business class seats, while Spirit Airlines, a low-cost carrier popular among non-rich Americans, has gone bankrupt. Sales of private jets and luxury yachts have soared, while many Americans are struggling to make ends meet. The Prediction: A Growing Divide Unless Trump's policies change, the K-shaped economy is likely to continue growing, with the wealthy getting richer and the poor getting poorer. The implications are far-reaching, with many Americans feeling the pinch of rising inflation, stagnant wages, and decreasing affordability.

The Lead: Market Skepticism on Takeout A share price gain of only 10% on a possible takeover approach is a meek reaction. If the stock market truly believed that Castlelake, a US investment fund, stood a decent chance of buying easyJet, you would expect the target's stock to fly significantly higher. Scepticism is the right stance until at least three factors become clearer. The Event Details: Castlelake's Opportunistic Approach EasyJet's description of Castlelake's timing as "highly opportunistic" was boilerplate rhetoric (all bids are opportunistic to a degree) but in this case it is clearly possible that all European airlines' prospects could be brighter within a couple of months. It all depends on the price of jet fuel, which itself depends on resolution of the Iran war, and also how the peak summer season shapes up. The conflict has knocked consumers' willingness to book ahead, but that does not mean they will not show up for overseas summer holidays if disruption is minimal. The Valuation Analysis: Premium Questions and Asset Value City analysts still estimate that easyJet's pre-tax outcome could be as low at £100m this year, which is virtually a wash-out against £665m a year ago. Yet the half-year numbers only a fortnight ago kept alive the "medium-term" target of more than £1bn "as conditions normalise". If the chair, Sir Stephen Hester, really believes £1bn is possible in time (despite persistent underperformance versus Ryanair) it is hard to see how he could credibly enter takeover talks at anything other than a very fat premium to the starting share price of 400p. Only a year ago the shares were approaching 600p under sunnier skies. An alternative metric is the value of the assets. As Goodbody's analyst puts it, easyJet "is effectively a bundle of aircraft assets, orderbook assets and airport landing slot assets". The broker puts the book value of the owned fleet at 615p a share; Bank of America thinks 650p. If Castlelake, mostly a lender to the airline industry rather than an owner, has spotted a way to exploit the discount to book value via, say, not taking delivery of some of the aircraft, the same technique is presumably available to easyJet in standalone form. You don't have to sell the entire company in order to sell a few aircraft. The Regulatory Hurdles: European Ownership Restrictions Second, how would Castlelake, as a US entity, get around European ownership restrictions? The rules say majority UK/EU ownership is required, so presumably the would-be bidder has some form of fancy footwork in mind. But what? A European partner? There would surely have to be clarity before any talks could start, otherwise what is the point? What easyJet calls the "deliverability" of any bid proposal is not a small consideration. The Founder Factor: Sir Stelios's Influence Third, what does Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou think? The founder doesn't lob as many insults at easyJet's board these days, but he and his family still have a 15% stake, which is enough to throw a spanner in the engine if that is how he is minded. Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou, the founder of easyJet, still owns a 15% stake with his family. The Industry Context: Consolidation Patterns and Likely Players None of which changes the fact that easyJet has been seen as a plausible takeover candidate for about a decade. The company is regarded as a loose piece in the pan-European jigsaw whenever aviation specialists plot ways in which the market could follow the US path of consolidation. It's just that actual airlines, as opposed to financiers like Castlelake, are seen as the most likely instigators. IAG, owner of British Airways, is usually seen as the natural long-term destination for easyJet. Certainly, Hester & Co would have to whip up some competitive tension if Castlelake can demonstrate how it would clear the regulatory hurdles. The would-be bidder says it has bought a 2% stake in easyJet, which demonstrates some level of seriousness. But that's about all Castlelake has said. The departure lounge for a bid still feels a way off.

The Rise of AI Weather Forecasting A new AI weather forecasting tool released by WindBorne Systems offers more frequent and accurate predictions on key variables than the world-leading system developed by European governments. This advancement is thanks to improvements in how sensor readings are fed into deep learning models. WeatherMesh-6: A More Accurate Forecast Founded by a group of Stanford students in 2019, WindBorne began by building a better weather balloon, with the idea of selling weather data. However, with the arrival of weather-forecasting deep learning models in 2022, the team realized they could capture more value by building their own model as well. Today marks the release of the sixth version of that model, WeatherMesh-6, which the company says is more accurate than traditional and AI forecasts produced by the ECMWF. The Data Advantage WindBorne has about 400 balloons in flight gathering sensor readings at any given time, launched from 15 sites around the globe. The advances in its current model come from improvements in how the data collected by the balloons is fed into the models. Outperforming Traditional Forecasts One simple way to understand it is that WeatherMesh-6 "is as accurate five days out as a traditional forecast is the day before," particularly on surface temperature measurements. WeatherMesh-6 produces a forecast every hour, as opposed to every six hours, as traditional models do, and its resolution is now down to 3 km in the continental U.S. The Future of Weather Forecasting The company suffered a scare last year when a United Airlines jetliner flew into one of its balloons. While the plane suffered minor damage, no one was hurt, in part because WindBorne followed U.S. regulations about how large its sensor package could be. Now, however, the company uses the global aviation surveillance system ADS-B to move its balloons out of the way of passing aircraft, in an effort to reduce the odds of another crash. Business Model and Funding WindBorne, which has raised $25 million in venture funding with a reported valuation of $85 million in 2024, sells its balloon data to NOAA, where it is used in the American weather forecasting enterprise, and the U.S. Air Force and Navy. The company also sells its forecasts to investors and commodity traders.

The Takeover Bid EasyJet has called a potential £3bn bid by a US investment group “highly opportunistic”, as shares in the budget airline shot up to their highest level in three months on the takeover interest. Castlelake's Stake and Offer The US private credit firm Castlelake said on Friday it was considering a takeover offer for the airline. On Monday, it said it had already bought a 2.14% stake in the business and its offer would value easyJet at least at 403p a share, or about £3bn overall. EasyJet's Response However, easyJet hit out at its potential buyer, saying it was “highly opportunistic timing” as its share price was “temporarily depressed due to the current situation in the Middle East and its impact on customer confidence and jet fuel prices”. Market Reaction and Future Outlook Shares in easyJet shot up by as much as 12% in early trading on Monday, reaching 444.7p – well above the minimum level of a potential offer by Castlelake, and their highest level since 2 March, valuing the company at about £3.4bn. The jump later eased, with shares up about 10%. Regulatory Challenges Under City takeover rules, Castlelake, which is headquartered in Minneapolis and manages $36bn (£27bn) in assets, has until 5pm on 26 June to announce whether intends to make an offer for easyJet. EasyJet said it would “consider any proposal, should one be made” but that there were “considerable regulatory, financial and other execution challenges associated with a potential takeover”.

Translated Fiction Review Roundup A collection of recent translated fiction has been reviewed, showcasing the diversity and complexity of global literature. The reviews include: 'Sisters in Yellow' by Mieko Kawakami Sisters in Yellow by Mieko Kawakami, translated by Laurel Taylor and Hitomi Yoshio (Picador, £16.99) Kawakami’s latest opens with a bang, as narrator Hana learns that her old friend Kimiko has been charged with abduction. This MacGuffin takes us to their friendship in late-1990s Tokyo, when teen Hana and the older woman open a bar called Lemon: “Yellow attracts money.” But it’s a turbulent ride and soon Hana is in a world of organised crime. “The world is crazy. I feel like I’m living in a manga.” She’s not the only one, and you need an appetite for Kawakami’s style, which prefers to explore rather than explain – people come and go, buildings burn down, cancer is diagnosed, almost at random – but the relentless rush means there’s no time to get bored. At its best – as in a scene where Hana’s unreliable mother wants to borrow 2m yen for investment in lingerie that helps “your spine and organs move back to where they’re supposed to be” – this is a story both absurd and horrifying. 'All Flesh' by Ananda Devi All Flesh by Ananda Devi, translated by Jeffrey Zuckerman (Pushkin, £12.99) “Forgive me for starting this story with bodily, unpalatable origins.” You may as well – it’s all like that. In an unnamed European country, a schoolgirl “born with no urge but to consume” is getting bigger and bigger. “My gut, my ass, my thighs – they were all set on reaching the farthest corners of the world.” She blames her gluttony on the need to silence the voice of her dead twin sister, who was “absorbed into my tissues” in the womb. She hates school, where other kids mock her, as though her own self-disgust weren’t enough. After a blackly comic scene where she gets stuck in her bedroom doorframe like “an uncooperative cork”, she falls in love with the lonely carpenter who arrives to widen the door – but there are more twists to come. This powerful story is deeply physical, but driven by a compelling voice describing the torment of a girl who is “the psychical mirror of our time … immoderation made manifest”. 'The White Desert' by Luis López Carrasco The White Desert by Luis López Carrasco, translated by Rosalind Harvey (Granta, £14.99) This unpredictable book, comprising five linked stories about a Spanish couple, opens with the end of the world and gets weirder from there. A balloon debate about a post-apocalyptic scenario turns nasty when one participant pulls a knife, or thinks he does. A plane crash-lands on an island. “Can [we] go and get our luggage … Lots of people have, you know, soiled themselves.” What links the scenes is a sense of disconnection in our connected world, but the book subverts expectations: when a group of people celebrating New Year’s Eve go missing, it turns out to be a game of hide and seek. Footnotes peppered throughout suggest we’re viewing all this from the future (“Emirates was a well-known passenger airline …”), and discovering what the white desert is turns everything on its head. For readers who like to do their own joining up, and who want a playful, original take on our precarious lives, this is a thought-provoking treat. 'The Home of the Drowned' by Elin Anna Labba The Home of the Drowned by Elin Anna Labba, translated by Elizabeth Clark Wessel (Harvill, £16.99) “You could have waited, you bastards.” In 1942 Lapland, a village occupied by the semi-nomadic Sámi people is flooded by a new hydroelectric plant’s dam. One family watch as their goahti (peat-covered hut) disappears under the water. “It wasn’t the nicest goahti,” says Ánne. “No, but it was mine,” says her sister Rávdná. When Rávdná wants to build a house to replace it, the authorities refuse permission: the Sámi way of life has been rejected but alternatives are not permitted. A local newspaper half-heartedly offers to publicise their case, but “we receive a lot of angry letters if we use any foreign words”. When the government tells local people the new dam “will lift us out of poverty and injustice”, the words reek with irony. This intimate story of infuriating discrimination is, Labba says, based on real events in Sweden.