AI Weather Startup Outforecasts Government Agencies

The Rise of AI Weather Forecasting

A new AI weather forecasting tool released by WindBorne Systems offers more frequent and accurate predictions on key variables than the world-leading system developed by European governments. This advancement is thanks to improvements in how sensor readings are fed into deep learning models.

WeatherMesh-6: A More Accurate Forecast

Founded by a group of Stanford students in 2019, WindBorne began by building a better weather balloon, with the idea of selling weather data. However, with the arrival of weather-forecasting deep learning models in 2022, the team realized they could capture more value by building their own model as well. Today marks the release of the sixth version of that model, WeatherMesh-6, which the company says is more accurate than traditional and AI forecasts produced by the ECMWF.

The Data Advantage

• WindBorne has about 400 balloons in flight gathering sensor readings at any given time, launched from 15 sites around the globe.
• The advances in its current model come from improvements in how the data collected by the balloons is fed into the models.

Outperforming Traditional Forecasts

One simple way to understand it is that WeatherMesh-6 "is as accurate five days out as a traditional forecast is the day before," particularly on surface temperature measurements. WeatherMesh-6 produces a forecast every hour, as opposed to every six hours, as traditional models do, and its resolution is now down to 3 km in the continental U.S.

The Future of Weather Forecasting

The company suffered a scare last year when a United Airlines jetliner flew into one of its balloons. While the plane suffered minor damage, no one was hurt, in part because WindBorne followed U.S. regulations about how large its sensor package could be. Now, however, the company uses the global aviation surveillance system ADS-B to move its balloons out of the way of passing aircraft, in an effort to reduce the odds of another crash.

Business Model and Funding

WindBorne, which has raised $25 million in venture funding with a reported valuation of $85 million in 2024, sells its balloon data to NOAA, where it is used in the American weather forecasting enterprise, and the U.S. Air Force and Navy. The company also sells its forecasts to investors and commodity traders.