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Executive summary: Trump says deal is largely negotiatedDonald Trump announced on Truth Social that a proposed agreement between the United States, Iran and several regional partners has been "largely negotiated" and will be finalised soon, sparking optimism that hostilities could subside. Proposed MoU outlines steps to end the US‑Israel war on IranThe draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) reportedly includes three staged actions: Formally ending the war on all fronts.Resolving the Strait of Hormuz crisis.Opening a 30‑day negotiation window for a broader peace framework, with a possible extension. Countries mentioned as participants are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkiye, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain. The MoU also envisions a 60‑day period for nuclear‑related talks. Quantitative stakes: shipping volumes, timelines and nuclear enrichment limitsBefore the conflict, roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement would reopen this vital lane, which has been effectively closed since the war began on 28 February 2026. The proposed timeline includes: 30‑day window to address Hormuz‑related procedures.60‑day window for discussions on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. Reuters cited a draft clause indicating Iran might surrender its highly enriched uranium, though details of transfer remain undefined. Regional implications: Hormuz sovereignty, sanctions relief and Israeli oppositionIran insists on sovereign control over the strait and has floated the idea of levying tolls, while the United States demands unrestricted navigation. Simultaneously, the United States is prepared to waive sanctions on Iranian oil during negotiations, a point Tehran has not yet linked to concessions on its nuclear programme. Iranian officials, including Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, describe the MoU as a framework that will set broad principles before detailed talks. They stress that ending the war and preventing future U.S. attacks are immediate priorities. Israeli leadership remains skeptical; analysts note that Israeli acquiescence will be crucial for any durable settlement. Outlook: hurdles and scenarios for a final agreementExperts such as Quincy Institute co‑founder Trita Parsi view the MoU as a sign of willingness but warn that substantive concessions are still lacking. The next 30‑60 days will test whether both sides can bridge gaps on Hormuz navigation, nuclear enrichment limits and reparations. If sanctions are lifted and the nuclear issue resolved, observers suggest the deal could surpass the 2015 JCPOA in scope. Conversely, continued Israeli resistance or unresolved sovereignty disputes could stall or collapse the process.

President Donald Trump has signaled that the U.S. Navy will enforce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, targeting any vessel that has paid a toll to Iran. The announcement sent oil futures soaring past $100 per barrel on Monday, reviving fears of a deeper global energy crisis. U.S. Central Command later clarified that the operation would focus on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, a narrower scope than the initial threat to shut the entire strait. Nonetheless, experts say the move would still choke a critical chokepoint in world oil supply. "Anything that removes oil from the market pushes prices higher, which in turn lifts gasoline costs," explained Trita Parsi, co‑founder of the Quincy Institute. He warned that if Iran’s allies, notably the Houthis in Yemen, retaliate by closing the Bab al‑Mandeb strait, oil could surge above $150 a barrel. Bab al‑Mandeb serves as an alternative route for Gulf oil to reach the Red Sea and Indian Ocean. Its closure would compound the disruption already caused by the Hormuz threat. Since the start of the U.S.–Israeli conflict on February 28, Iran has limited traffic through Hormuz, allowing only a handful of vetted ships. Windward estimates that about 3,200 vessels were stranded west of the strait as of Saturday. Former chief economist Anas Alhajji of NGP Energy Capital Management expects non‑Iranian carriers to avoid the strait regardless of U.S. assurances, citing rising insurance premiums and the risk of Iranian retaliation. "The Trump blockade of Iranian ports is effectively a blockade of the Hormuz Strait," he told Al Jazeera. The ripple effects extend beyond fuel. Higher oil and gas prices will lift the cost of chemicals, fertilizers and plastics feedstocks, analysts say. Cameron Johnson, senior partner at Tidalwave Solutions, predicts a rapid increase in raw‑material prices if the blockade persists into late April or early May. "The wild card is the timeframe," Johnson noted. "If it’s a short‑term negotiating tactic, the market may absorb it, but a prolonged blockade will spike global commodity prices." Supply‑chain experts warn of broader repercussions. Deborah Elms of the Hinrich Foundation highlighted that rising fabric costs and packaging shortages could strain food production and consumer goods later in the year. Industry observer Chad Norville of Rigzone said the mere threat erodes confidence in the strait’s stability, likely driving up insurance costs and reducing daily trade volumes. In sum, a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports would mark a stark reversal of recent policy, which had briefly eased sanctions to alleviate the energy crunch. The potential escalation underscores how geopolitical moves can quickly translate into higher energy bills and broader economic strain worldwide.

US President Donald Trump's recent statements threatening Iran have raised concerns about the potential consequences for global power and regional stability. Trump's vow to 'wipe out' Iran has been met with warnings of a potentially catastrophic impact on the region.The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has become a focal point in the tensions between the US and Iran. The US has been pressing Iran to open the strait, which has led to a significant escalation in rhetoric between the two nations.Experts warn that such brinkmanship could have far-reaching consequences, potentially reshaping global power dynamics and impacting the stability of the Middle East. The situation remains volatile, with many concerned about the potential for conflict.Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, provides insight into the complexities of the situation and the potential implications for US foreign policy.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced on Wednesday that the United States had achieved a "decisive" military victory over Iran, claiming the Iranian missile programme has been "functionally destroyed." Speaking alongside General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Hegseth described the operation—codenamed Operation Epic Fury—as a "historic and overwhelming" triumph that met every objective, including the dismantling of Iran’s navy, air‑defence systems and missile‑production capability. The declaration came a day after President Donald Trump stepped back from a threatened full‑scale assault on Iran, just two hours before a self‑imposed deadline for Tehran to reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. The resulting cease‑fire agreement stipulates that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon and that the United States will monitor the country’s enriched uranium stockpiles. While Hegseth emphasized that "they can still shoot here and there, but that would be very unwise," he also warned that US forces will remain in the region to ensure compliance with the two‑week cease‑fire and to oversee the safe transit of vessels through the strategic waterway. Iran’s response was equally emphatic. The Supreme National Security Council, cited by IRNA, congratulated the Iranian people on a "victory" and urged perseverance until the details of that victory are finalized. The council highlighted Iran’s alliances with the so‑called "axis of resistance" in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and occupied Palestine, claiming the coalition has delivered blows to the enemy over the past 40 days. At the same briefing, General Caine confirmed that US military objectives in Iran have been met, but framed the cease‑fire as a "pause" rather than a permanent end to hostilities, noting that forces remain ready to resume combat if necessary. In parallel diplomatic developments, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday or Friday, contingent on a cease‑fire framework being reached ahead of a scheduled US‑Iran meeting in Pakistan. The closure of the strait has previously disrupted global oil and gas markets, making its reopening a critical economic signal. Trita Parsi, vice‑president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that President Trump needed an exit from a war he described as "an absolute disaster" and that the next two weeks are "crucial" for any genuine diplomatic opening, though he cautioned that the situation is not yet resolved. Analysts note that the cease‑fire’s success will hinge on Iran’s willingness to allow unfettered navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and on US verification of Iran’s uranium holdings. The coming fortnight will test whether the declared victory translates into lasting stability in a volatile region.

Israel’s armed forces posted a stark warning on X, urging Iranians to refrain from using trains or approaching railway lines until 21:00 Iran time (17:30 GMT). The message, issued on the military’s Persian‑language account, framed the advisory as a safety measure, hinting at imminent strikes on civilian rail infrastructure before U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz lapses. Trump has publicly threatened to bomb Iran’s bridges and power plants if the strategic waterway remains closed, setting a deadline of Tuesday 8 p.m. EST (01:00 GMT Wednesday). In response, Tehran has pledged “devastating” retaliation against any attacks on its civilian targets. Recent Israeli air operations have intensified. New strikes hit Tehran’s residential districts and a nearby synagogue, and a petrochemical facility on Iran’s side of the South Pars gasfield—shared with Qatar—was also targeted. According to Iran’s Ministry of Health, the conflict, which began on 28 February, has claimed at least 2,076 Iranian lives over more than five weeks. Amid the escalating rhetoric, the King Fahd Causeway linking Saudi Arabia and Bahrain was suspended as a precaution against potential Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province. The 25 km (16 mi) bridge is the sole road link for Bahrain, which hosts the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet. Gulf states report heightened alert levels: alarms sounded in Bahrain and the UAE, and the Saudi Ministry of Defense said it intercepted seven ballistic missiles in its eastern sector. Al Jazeera’s correspondent noted that the Gulf region has borne the brunt of the conflict. On the diplomatic front, the UN Security Council is slated to vote on a watered‑down resolution aimed at unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. The draft, seen by AFP, omits any language authorising force, but Russia and China retain the power to veto. Iran’s blockade has already rattled global energy markets, driving oil and gas prices to record highs and forcing nations to adopt austerity measures. Analysts such as Trita Parsi, vice‑president of the Quincy Institute, argue that President Trump retains the flexibility to extend the deadline without losing credibility, given his historically limited diplomatic leverage. As the deadline looms, the convergence of military warnings, infrastructure closures, and diplomatic maneuvering highlights the fragile balance between coercive pressure and the risk of broader regional escalation.

Iran launched a new barrage of missiles at Israel following President Donald Trump’s televised claim that Washington had "destroyed the Iranian military" and was on the brink of completing its war objectives. Trump’s address, delivered hours after he asserted that Tehran had requested a ceasefire—a claim Tehran promptly denied—also featured a pledge to "finish the job" and a statement that the core strategic goals of the United States were "nearing completion." Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized that Iran holds no hostility toward the peoples of the United States, Europe or neighboring states, while urging the American public to question the motives behind the continued conflict. In Tehran, the war has intensified: US‑Israeli air campaigns continue to cause casualties and infrastructure damage, and Iranian forces persist with missile and drone counter‑attacks. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that, despite receiving messages from Washington, "trust remains at zero" for any negotiation. Senior political figure Kamal Kharazi, a former foreign minister, was seriously wounded when a strike hit his home in Tehran, killing his wife. Kharazi had been involved in back‑channel talks through Pakistan aimed at reviving negotiations. In the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates reported intercepting incoming Iranian missiles and drones, and a tanker off Doha sustained damage from a projectile, though no casualties were reported. President Trump publicly thanked Gulf allies, pledging that the United States would not allow them to be harmed. Within the United States, analysts such as Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute noted that Trump’s speech offered little new information, essentially summarising recent tweets and suggesting a lack of a clear operational plan. Israel’s military confirmed that its air‑defence systems were actively intercepting Iranian missiles, but the attack wounded 14 civilians, including an 11‑year‑old girl, near Tel Aviv. Israeli officials said the timeline outlined by Trump aligns with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assessment of the campaign. Regional spill‑over continued: an Israeli strike on Beirut killed a senior Hezbollah commander and at least seven civilians, while an air strike on Iraq’s Anbar province killed seven fighters and injured 13 at a military healthcare clinic. On the economic front, the World Bank expressed "extreme concern" about the conflict’s impact on inflation, employment and food security, and is consulting member states on emergency measures. Despite the turmoil, global equity markets rallied and oil prices fell after Trump’s optimistic remarks, indicating short‑term investor relief.

President Donald Trump told allies that Tehran does not need to negotiate a settlement for the hostilities to cease, estimating the conflict could be over in two to three weeks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, however, dismissed any hope of talks, stating that Tehran has zero trust in Washington.US‑Israeli air raids persist across Iran, hitting key industrial and civilian targets such as steel factories in Isfahan and Farokhshahr, pharmaceutical facilities, port infrastructure, meteorological stations and a residential complex. Iranian state media and the Red Crescent reported explosions in cities including Ahvaz, Shiraz, Isfahan, Karaj, Kermanshah and Bandar Abbas.An Iranian official said the Tofigh Daru pharmaceutical raw‑material plant in Tehran was struck, crippling its research and development wing and delivering a "blow to the national medical supply chain." In Bandar Abbas, the Shahid Haqqani passenger pier was bombed, though officials claimed no casualties.A desalination plant on Qeshm Island, crucial for water supply in the Strait of Hormuz, was knocked out of service by the strikes.Analyst Trita Parsi warned that the war is unlikely to end swiftly and that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, noting that it will not be easy for President Trump to simply walk away from the conflict.Casualties have surpassed 2,000 Iranians, with numerous civilian sites—including hospitals, schools, universities and pharmaceutical factories—targeted, raising concerns of potential war‑crime violations.On the diplomatic front, Spain, France and Italy have begun curbing U.S. military operations by closing airspace, denying base access and limiting logistical support. Meanwhile, China and Pakistan have tabled a five‑point cease‑fire proposal that calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.Regional leaders are also active: Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan have convened to discuss the Iran war, while Argentina, under President Javier Milei, officially labeled Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a “terrorist” organization.Pope Francis (Leo XIV) appealed directly to President Trump, urging an end to the violence and expressing hope that the U.S. leader is moving toward a resolution.In the Gulf, Iranian drones have repeatedly struck Kuwait’s airport, forcing the closure of its airspace since late February; Saudi Arabia has stepped in to provide transport for affected passengers. Bahrain sounded air‑raid sirens, and Saudi forces reported intercepting two additional drones.A merchant vessel north of Doha suffered damage from an "unknown projectile," though the crew remained unharmed and no environmental harm was recorded.U.S. officials remain divided: while Trump predicts a rapid end, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that the United States is "negotiating with bombs" and that the coming days are decisive. The war’s uncertainty has pushed oil prices higher, prompting U.S. Senator Chris Coons to warn that American families face rising grocery, utility and mortgage costs.Israel continues to face coordinated attacks from Iran and Hezbollah, with missile and drone incursions reported across northern and central regions. Despite these threats, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that Iran’s regional allies no longer pose an "existential threat," yet Israel plans to maintain its offensive, including operations in Lebanon.In Lebanon, Israeli ground advances and heavy bombardments have resulted in over 1,200 deaths and displaced roughly 1.2 million people since early March. Iraqi militia Kata’ib Sayyid al‑Shuhada warned that any U.S. ground incursion into Iran via Kuwait could trigger an all‑out war.

President Donald Trump has made a bold statement regarding the ongoing conflict with Iran, suggesting that the US could potentially end the war within two to three weeks. He emphasized that a deal is not a prerequisite for the US to withdraw from the conflict, indicating a possible shift in his diplomatic approach.Trump's comments come amid rising tensions and escalating energy prices, with domestic petrol prices in the US jumping past an average of $4 a gallon. The conflict has disrupted energy supplies and shaken the global economy, with Iran's attacks on Gulf oil facilities and its continued control over fuel supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil and liquified natural gas passes.In a surprising move, Trump has criticized allied countries for not providing sufficient support in the conflict. He took aim at countries like the UK, telling them to either buy US fuel or get involved in the rapidly escalating war. 'Go get your own oil!' he stated, emphasizing that the US wouldn't be there to help them anymore.Trump's statements have been met with caution by experts, who note that it would not be easy for him to simply walk out of a conflict that has spread across the region and resulted in thousands of deaths. Trita Parsi, a foreign policy expert, suggested that Trump's comments should be treated with skepticism, predicting that the timeline for the conflict would likely continue to be extended.The conflict has also drawn in other countries, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arguing that the war on Iran was 'definitely beyond the halfway point.' The situation remains volatile, with experts warning that Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz and potentially continue to target it.