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Politics
May 24, 2026
Analyzed by GPT OSS 120B

US, Iran inch closer to deal to end the war: What to know

AI Summary
President Donald Trump says a US‑Iran memorandum of understanding is "largely negotiated," raising hopes for an end to the US‑Israel war on Iran. Key disputes remain over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear programme and Israeli opposition, making the final outcome uncertain.

Executive summary: Trump says deal is largely negotiated

Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that a proposed agreement between the United States, Iran and several regional partners has been "largely negotiated" and will be finalised soon, sparking optimism that hostilities could subside.

Proposed MoU outlines steps to end the US‑Israel war on Iran

The draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) reportedly includes three staged actions:

  • Formally ending the war on all fronts.
  • Resolving the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
  • Opening a 30‑day negotiation window for a broader peace framework, with a possible extension.

Countries mentioned as participants are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkiye, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain. The MoU also envisions a 60‑day period for nuclear‑related talks.

Quantitative stakes: shipping volumes, timelines and nuclear enrichment limits

Before the conflict, roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement would reopen this vital lane, which has been effectively closed since the war began on 28 February 2026. The proposed timeline includes:

  • 30‑day window to address Hormuz‑related procedures.
  • 60‑day window for discussions on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile.

Reuters cited a draft clause indicating Iran might surrender its highly enriched uranium, though details of transfer remain undefined.

Regional implications: Hormuz sovereignty, sanctions relief and Israeli opposition

Iran insists on sovereign control over the strait and has floated the idea of levying tolls, while the United States demands unrestricted navigation. Simultaneously, the United States is prepared to waive sanctions on Iranian oil during negotiations, a point Tehran has not yet linked to concessions on its nuclear programme.

Iranian officials, including Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, describe the MoU as a framework that will set broad principles before detailed talks. They stress that ending the war and preventing future U.S. attacks are immediate priorities.

Israeli leadership remains skeptical; analysts note that Israeli acquiescence will be crucial for any durable settlement.

Outlook: hurdles and scenarios for a final agreement

Experts such as Quincy Institute co‑founder Trita Parsi view the MoU as a sign of willingness but warn that substantive concessions are still lacking. The next 30‑60 days will test whether both sides can bridge gaps on Hormuz navigation, nuclear enrichment limits and reparations.

If sanctions are lifted and the nuclear issue resolved, observers suggest the deal could surpass the 2015 JCPOA in scope. Conversely, continued Israeli resistance or unresolved sovereignty disputes could stall or collapse the process.