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May Job Gains Outpace Forecasts Amid Inflation ConcernsThe Labor Department reported that 172,000 jobs were added in May, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Economists had expected roughly 80,000 new positions, making the actual figure more than double the projection.Numbers Reveal Strong Hiring and Revised FiguresMay: 172,000 jobs added (vs. 80,000 forecast)March and April revisions: +29,000 and +64,000 jobs respectively, a total upward adjustment of 93,000Private‑sector hiring: 122,000 jobs (ADP data)April job openings: 7.6 millionADP’s chief economist Dr. Nela Richardson noted the hiring was “more broad‑based” than in recent years, with most industries participating except information and natural resources.Implications for Federal Reserve Policy and Economic OutlookThe report is the first jobs release under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, appointed by President Trump. A robust labor market reduces the urgency for rate cuts, yet the Fed faces pressure to balance inflation, which remains elevated, against growth.U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled confidence in Chair Warsh’s willingness to “balance inflation and growth.” However, Fed voting members have historically been reluctant to lower rates; only one member supported a cut at the April meeting.What the Labor Market May Look Like Through SummerAnalysts expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the June 16‑17 meeting, but political pressure for cuts persists. If hiring momentum continues, the Fed could maintain a tighter stance longer, potentially moderating inflation without triggering a recession.

The Emergence of 'Doomspending' The term 'doomspending' has become synonymous with the declining fortunes of young Westerners. It refers to spending frivolously with no concern for future financial consequences. A survey by Credit Karma found that 27% of Americans doomspend to deal with stress, with the numbers rising to 37% of Gen Z and 39% of millennials. The Cultural Context of Doomspending The discourse around doomspending echoes commentary that traces back to the aftermath of the Great Recession. The term 'doomspending' is a more recent phenomenon, tied to changes in Western economies since the financial crisis cratered the traditional life script almost 20 years ago. The Data Analysis: Financial Anxiety and Spending Habits Elderly North Americans and Western Europeans have difficulty internalizing the changing economic landscape. In the United States, the dollar lost 30% of its value since Covid, according to the Truflation index. More importantly, when discussing the perspective of boomers, it lost 60% of its value since the 90s, and 88% of its value since the 70s. The Impact Analysis: Shifting Attitudes Towards Spending and Saving Young people just don't believe that the economy is moral in general, that those with wealth earned it through playing by the rules. They see the economy as a casino, where some get lucky, but most lose. This has led to a shift in attitudes towards spending and saving, with many young people opting to spend today rather than save for tomorrow. The Prediction: A New Economic Reality Spend today because there won't be a tomorrow is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The only way to stop it is to make people believe that an average person of average abilities can wake up every day, play by the rules, and expect to lead a fulfilling, if uneventful, life. If the general public doesn't believe that to be true, let them eat Deliveroo.

The OECD's Warning The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has issued a stark warning that if the Middle East conflict drags on into 2027, it could have severe consequences for the global economy. According to the organisation's latest Economic Outlook, a 'prolonged disruption' scenario would reduce global GDP growth to 2.1% this year, from 3.4% in 2025. The Prolonged Disruption Scenario In this scenario, the OECD forecasts that some economies would be pushed into or close to recession, with emerging economies hit hardest. Oil and gas shortages would result in 'enforced rationing' of energy for businesses, while the price of fertilisers and other affected inputs into industrial processes would also rise. The Data Analysis The OECD's forecasts paint a grim picture: Global GDP growth would be reduced to 2.1% this year, from 3.4% in 2025. Emerging economies would be hit hardest. Oil and gas shortages would lead to 'enforced rationing' of energy for businesses. The Impact Analysis The OECD's warning highlights the significant risks associated with a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. The organisation's chief economist, Stefano Scarpetta, described the Iran conflict as 'the dominant force shaping the global economic outlook.' The consequences of a prolonged disruption would be felt globally, but could prove especially severe for developing economies with limited energy reserves, higher shares of energy and food in household consumption, constrained fiscal capacity, and weak social safety nets. The Prediction The OECD presents an alternative, less catastrophic scenario, in which progress towards a durable peace agreement allows oil prices to decline over the coming weeks and months. In this scenario, global GDP growth would be 2.8% – a downgrade on last year but significantly stronger than in the 'prolonged disruption' case. However, the OECD's warning serves as a reminder of the urgent need to diversify energy sources and reduce reliance on fossil fuels to mitigate the impact of future shocks.

The Failed Dealmaker: Trump's Iran Dilemma For weeks, Donald Trump has tried to find a way to end the war he started with Iran – a deal that would allow him to declare victory and move past the conflict before it causes severe damage to the global economy and sinks Republican chances in the US midterm elections. But the self-proclaimed master dealmaker can't seem to stop sabotaging his own negotiations or to acknowledge that Iran is now in a better position to demand concessions than it was before the war. Strategic Missteps: From Military Action to Negotiation Deadlock Over the Memorial Day holiday, Trump skipped his eldest son's wedding in the Bahamas and canceled plans to spend the weekend at his New Jersey golf club. The last-minute changes heightened speculation that Trump was ready to unveil a deal to end the war. Trump then announced that he would hold a cabinet meeting at Camp David, the presidential compound in Maryland that has been the site of historic diplomatic summits. But that meeting was moved back to the White House, as it became clear that Trump had not been able to close a deal he could announce with great fanfare. The Art of the Deal: Trump's Negotiation Paradox Why has an agreement eluded the business titan who wrote the bestselling 1987 book The Art of the Deal? Trump admires strongman leaders and is loth to project any sign of weakness – and he's afraid of reaching a deal with Iran that makes him look weak. The president is also sensitive to criticism that any agreement he negotiates will be worse for the US than the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, which was brokered by Barack Obama's administration. Leverage Reversed: How Iran Gained the Upper Hand Trump's main problem is that Iran has more leverage than he does – and Iranian leaders are well aware of that advantage. On 28 February, Trump launched a joint US-Israeli war against Iran, killing the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other top military and political officials. But Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against US military bases across the Middle East, and it targeted the energy infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors. Iran also deployed its most effective economic weapon: it closed the strait of Hormuz, through which more than a fifth of the world's oil supply passed each day. Economic Fallout: Global Disruption and Rising Oil Prices The closure of the Strait of Hormuz – along with Iranian attacks on pipelines and gas fields in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – disrupted the global economy and increased oil prices. In the US, average gas prices have jumped by 50%, up to nearly $4.50 per gallon, since Trump launched the war. Trump and his ally, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, could not topple the Islamic regime that rose to power after Iran's 1979 revolution. Instead, they ended up strengthening it – by allowing Tehran to deploy its geographic control of the strait of Hormuz into a weapon that could instigate a global energy crisis and a worldwide recession. The Emerging Deal: Limited Concessions and Unresolved Issues The emerging deal is focused on solving a problem that didn't exist before Trump started this war: fully reopening the strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping so that oil prices can stabilize. Under a draft agreement being circulated to US allies, Washington would also lift its blockade of Iranian ports and allow Tehran to access about $12bn in frozen assets. Once again, Trump seems to be aiming for a limited deal with Iran that defers the most difficult questions to future talks, which could drag out for months or even years. Iran's Resilience: Military Strength Preserved In some ways, Iran has emerged stronger after a war intended to decimate its military capabilities. A CIA report sent to Trump earlier this month found that Tehran had managed to retain a significant part of its missile capabilities. The analysis said Iran preserved about 70% of its prewar stockpile of missiles and about 75% of its mobile launchers. The report also concluded that Iran was more resilient than US officials had claimed, and it could survive a naval blockade for months. Political Calculations: Midterm Elections and Trump's Dilemma At his cabinet meeting, Trump said he didn't care about the midterm elections and wasn't in a rush to reach a deal. "It's got to be perfect," Trump told reporters, adding: "I didn't do this to get a crummy agreement." Despite his weak position, Trump insists that he will strike a better deal with Iran than the one negotiated by the Obama administration in 2015. That agreement provided Tehran with relief from international sanctions in exchange for limits on its nuclear enrichment. The Unintended Consequences: Strengthening the Adversary Trump could have avoided starting a regime-change war that failed, leaving the world to deal with its consequences. Instead, the master negotiator handed Iran a new economic weapon – and more leverage to extract a favorable deal. The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead. Trump wrote in his famous book. The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have.

The Editorial’s Core ArgumentThe piece contends that successive governments have proclaimed a recovery in Britain’s pockets long before ordinary people have felt it, turning optimistic rhetoric into a political tool.Historical Use of “Green Shoots” as Political RhetoricIn October 1991, Chancellor Norman Lamont warned of “green shoots” amid a deep recession. The phrase resurfaced under George Osborne in 2013 and most recently under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ahead of the 2024 election, only to be rejected by voters who elected Labour in a landslide.Mixed Economic Data Undercut the OptimismUnemployment rose unexpectedly to 5% in the last quarter, with one in seven young people job‑seeking.Vacancies fell to their lowest level since early 2021.The Resolution Foundation projects real household disposable income to grow by just 1.1% over the next five years.Productivity, according to Prof John Van Reenen, is now rising at 1.6% per year since Q3 2024, up from 0.3% in the previous decade.Chancellor Rachel Reeves cites the IMF’s approval as validation, but the data suggest a fragmented picture.Political Consequences of Overstated GrowthThe editorial warns that Labour’s narrative of a rapid take‑off may be premature. Voters are not feeling better off, and the comparison should shift from post‑2014 politics to a Labour‑vs‑Tory analysis under “Trussonomics”, where fiscal rules and private‑investment reliance dominate.What the Next Year May Hold for the UK Economic NarrativeIf productivity gains prove sustainable, they could eventually translate into broader prosperity, but without stronger wage growth and job creation the political narrative will likely falter. The coming months will test whether Labour can convert early signs into tangible improvements for households or whether “green shoots” will remain a rhetorical flourish.

The Big Winner at the 2026 Ivor Novello AwardsScottish singer-songwriter Jacob Alon emerged as the standout performer at the 2026 Ivor Novello Awards, which celebrate excellence in British and Irish songwriting and screen composition. The 25-year-old artist captivated audiences with their distinctive voice and imaginative alt-folk arrangements, winning two prestigious awards that solidify their place as one of the most promising talents in contemporary music.Alon's Double Victory: Rising Star and Best SongAlon's remarkable achievement includes winning the Ivor Novello award for Rising Star – the second major recognition for the artist this year, following their Critics' Choice award at the 2026 Brit Awards in February. Their second win came in the Best Song Musically and Lyrically category for "Don't Fall Asleep," a poignant ballad inspired by the death of Alon's cousin in an accidental drowning before they were born. The song imagines the cousin waking underwater after death and being guided by an angel to watch his unborn son enter the world. Judges hailed the track as "profoundly emotionally honest," recognizing its unique blend of personal tragedy and imaginative storytelling.Complete List of 2026 Ivor Novello Award WinnersThe 2026 ceremony recognized excellence across multiple categories in songwriting and composition:Best album: CMAT – Euro-CountryBest contemporary song: Kae Tempest – I Stand on the LineBest song musically and lyrically: Jacob Alon – Don't Fall AsleepMost performed work: Lola Young – MessyRising star: Jacob AlonBest original film score: Tom Hodge – TestimonyBest television soundtrack: David Holmes and Brian Irvine – TrespassesFellowship of the Ivors Academy: George Michael, Thom YorkeOutstanding song collection: Lily AllenIcon award: Calvin HarrisInternational songwriter of the year: RosalíaSongwriter of the year: Sam FenderSpecial international award: Linda PerryVisionary award: KanoIndustry Recognition and Career ImpactThe Ivor Novello Awards hold significant prestige in the music industry, often serving as indicators of long-term career potential. Jacob Alon's double victory, following their Mercury Prize nomination for debut album "In Limerence," suggests a trajectory similar to other critically acclaimed artists who have leveraged these early recognitions into sustained success. The awards also highlight the continued recognition of socially conscious songwriting, with Sam Fender honored as Songwriter of the Year for his social realist anthems and Kae Tempest recognized for giving voice to marginalized experiences through "I Stand on the Line."Future Prospects for Award WinnersLooking ahead, the 2026 Ivor Novello winners are positioned for increased industry attention and commercial opportunities. Jacob Alon's recent wins, particularly for the deeply personal "Don't Fall Asleep," may attract international audiences seeking authentic storytelling in an increasingly formulaic music landscape. Similarly, CMAT's Euro-Country album, which examines existential and romantic crises in recession-hit Ireland, could resonate with global audiences navigating similar economic uncertainties. The recognition of Rosalía as International Songwriter of the Year further validates the growing influence of European artists in shaping global music trends, suggesting continued cross-cultural exchange in the coming years.

The Growing Concern Over AI's Economic ImpactOne in three university students in Great Britain believe that artificial intelligence will eliminate jobs so rapidly that it will trigger civil unrest, according to a new survey by King's College London (KCL). This significant finding highlights the deep concerns among educated young people about the potential societal consequences of rapid technological advancement.The poll, conducted by the King's Institute for Artificial Intelligence and the KCL Policy Institute, represents the first major tracking study of attitudes toward AI across different segments of British society. It compares responses from university students, young people aged 16 to 29, employers, and the general public.Student Usage Patterns and PessimismUniversity students emerge as among the heaviest users of AI technology, with 77% reporting using it at least a few times a month—substantially higher than the 46% of workers who do so. Additionally, 27% of students use AI daily or almost daily, indicating deep integration of these tools into academic life.Despite their familiarity with AI, students express significant pessimism about its economic consequences. More than half are convinced that job losses resulting from AI will be more severe than those in a typical recession. This pessimism is particularly notable given that students generally hold more positive views about AI's overall impact on humanity compared to the general public.Key Statistics from the AI Attitudes Survey34% of university students believe AI will eliminate jobs fast enough to cause civil unrest (compared to 22% of the general public)77% of university students use AI at least a few times a month (compared to 46% of workers)27% of university students use AI daily or almost daily52% of male university students believe AI is positive for humanity (compared to 24% of the general public)9 out of 10 university students have encountered problems with AI, most commonly factual errors (37%) and made-up sources (31%)78% of students would still choose to attend university, though 30% would have selected a different subjectImplications for Education and the WorkforceThe survey reveals a significant gap between students' perceptions of their preparedness for an AI-shaped job market and their actual experiences. While 60% believe universities are capable of preparing them for this future, only 36% report actually receiving adequate preparation.This disconnect suggests that educational institutions may be struggling to adapt curricula and teaching methods to address the rapidly evolving technological landscape. The findings also highlight gender differences in how students perceive AI's impact on their cognitive abilities, with male students more likely to believe AI enhances their thinking skills while female students tend to hold the opposite view.Divergent Views on AI's FutureThe poll captures contrasting perspectives on AI's potential impact. Bobby Duffy, director of the KCL Policy Institute, emphasizes the widespread concern about AI's effect on employment, particularly at entry-level positions, and its broader implications for young people and the economy.In contrast, Bouke Klein Teeselink, a lecturer in philosophy, politics, and economics at KCL, offers a more optimistic outlook. He suggests that with appropriate training, policies, and institutional support, AI could lead to increased productivity, expanded opportunities, higher incomes, and accelerated scientific progress.These divergent views reflect the broader societal debate about artificial intelligence—balancing legitimate concerns about displacement and inequality against the potential benefits of technological advancement.

The Core Argument: Tech Monopoly Undermines DemocracyMordecai Kurz contends that today’s tech giants are hoarding cultural and technological influence, creating a “second Gilded Age” that weakens democratic institutions and fuels economic disenfranchisement.Monopoly Power and the New Gilded AgeKurz traces a historical pattern from the late 19th‑century industrialists—Andrew Carnegie and John D. Rockefeller—to modern firms such as Microsoft and OpenAI. He notes that, like the original Gilded Age, contemporary leaders view themselves as “superior beings” destined to shape society, citing Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s claim that AI could become a transcendent good while also acknowledging its potential to cause mass unemployment.Economic Indicators of ConcentrationReversal of New Deal‑era reforms in the Reagan era allowed monopoly power to expand.Wages for blue‑collar workers without college degrees have stagnated while the cost of living has risen.Tech startups increasingly design themselves for acquisition rather than competition, signaling entrenched monopoly dynamics.Consequences for Democratic InstitutionsAccording to Kurz, the concentration of wealth enables tech firms to wield outsized lobbying power, influencing policy and protecting their market dominance. Unregulated social‑media algorithms amplify polarization for profit, and unchecked AI threatens to displace not only low‑skill workers but also professionals such as doctors, lawyers, and engineers.Path Forward: Reform ScenariosKurz proposes a reform cycle reminiscent of the post‑Great Depression era:Implement taxes and redistribution mechanisms targeting excess wealth accumulated by monopolistic tech firms.Government‑subsidized retraining programs for workers displaced by AI, with incentives for companies that hire them.Legal liability for misinformation on platforms to curb harmful content.He warns that “Trumpism will not go in a whimper” and that a major recession or depression may be required before a new reform wave can take hold, but remains optimistic that a more humane form of capitalism can eventually restore democratic balance.

The Threat to the Federal Reserve's Independence Jerome Powell, who stepped down as chair of the Federal Reserve, had his hits and misses. The Fed was late to react as prices started rising when the Covid pandemic abated, but they eventually acted forcefully and achieved the most rare of feats: a “soft landing”, curbing inflation without sparking a recession or damaging employment. Powell's Defense of the Fed's Independence Powell's most lasting accomplishment will most likely be his outspoken efforts to defend the independence of the Fed from an assault by the imperial presidency of Donald Trump. The chair managed the president smoothly, ignoring his demands to slash interest rates at every turn. When Trump went for the jugular, threatening to indict Powell over the spurious charge of lying to Congress about the cost of refurbishing the Fed’s headquarters, he pushed back, refusing to step down and publicly condemning Trump’s real motivation: payback. The Data Analysis Even if Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to replace Powell, proves to be the president’s sock puppet, eager to cut rates regardless of mounting fears of higher inflation, he is unlikely to convince most of the 11 other members of the federal open markets committee, only two of which are Trump appointees. The Impact Analysis Trump’s ultimate goal is to subjugate the Fed to his will. Though he has failed thus far, he has the right supreme court to do it, run by a conservative majority that buys into the “unitary executive theory”, which in the vernacular means let-Trump-do-whatever-he-wants. The Fed is not safe, and Powell is not the only Fed official harassed by the president. The Prediction The institutional grounding of the US government in limbo. Much of the federal apparatus looks doomed to be trampled by a whimsical president. The Fed’s independence survives, for now, hanging from an arbitrary thread. Powell should be applauded for staying on the board. He can’t stop the supreme court from making a mess. But he can help make the best of the Fed’s autonomy while it has it.