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Campaigners and industry bodies are urging the UK government to resist calls for another relaxation of the zero‑emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate after an analysis showed that the 2024 rule changes could add 17 million tonnes of CO₂ to the atmosphere by 2030. Campaigners Warn Against Further Weakening of the UK ZEV Mandate The original ZEV mandate, introduced in 2023, required manufacturers to raise electric‑car sales to 80% by 2030. Labour’s 2024 revisions added “flexibilities” allowing higher sales of plug‑in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which combine a small battery with a petrol engine. Projected 17 Million Tonnes Extra CO₂ Emissions by 2030 Industry analysis shows an additional 59 billion miles driven by petrol and diesel cars and vans compared with forecasts made before the ZEV changes. This mileage increase translates to roughly 17 million tonnes of direct CO₂ emissions – comparable to the annual output of a small country such as Croatia. Sales of PHEVs rose 48% this year, reflecting manufacturers’ response to the new flexibilities. The Department for Transport (DfT) attributes most of the extra mileage to the mandate changes, noting that fewer PHEV owners use the electric mode. Consequences for the Charging Industry and Energy Transition Fewer fully electric vehicles on the road threatens the business case for charge‑point investors. Vicky Read, chief executive of ChargeUK, warned that billions of pounds of infrastructure spending are predicated on the original ZEV forecasts, and another rollback could “pull the rug from beneath the charging sector.” Colin Walker of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit cautioned that further weakening could push consumers toward PHEVs that cost “hundreds, even thousands, of pounds a year more to own and run than an electric car.” Outlook: Potential Policy Paths and Emissions Trajectory The government has pledged a review of the ZEV mandate by early 2027. If the flexibilities are fully exploited, the headline target of 33% electric sales this year could fall to as low as 7%, according to think‑tank New AutoMotive. Stakeholders such as Mike Hawes (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) argue for a “review of the transition” to align ambition with market realities, while the government reiterates its commitment to ban new non‑zero‑emission car and van sales by 2035 and is investing over £7.5bn in EV market growth and infrastructure.

War‑to‑Peace Shift Sparks Economic AlarmIranian officials are already weighing the consequences of moving from a wartime rallying point to a "fractious peace" marked by hyperinflation, a 10% contraction in GDP, rolling blackouts and rising dissent. Open debates on channels such as Azad reveal two camps: reformists pushing for greater openness and hard‑liners like Saeed Ajorlou urging autonomy‑driven development after the war.Crunching the Numbers: Inflation, Contraction and Lost AssetsFood inflation in May hit 130%, the highest since World War II.Meat and chicken prices surged to 176%.Estimated economic losses from the war and sanctions total around $270 bn (£200 bn).Potential relief from the United States is expected to be a fraction of that loss, with some economists citing possible inflows of $12 bn or $24 bn that would be insufficient given systemic inefficiencies.Internet‑related unemployment is estimated at 2 million people.Energy ministry warned of two‑hour daily blackouts unless consumption is cut by 10%, offering 30% price discounts as an incentive.Domestic Fallout: Social Unrest and Political FracturesSocio‑political commentators such as Fuad Habibi and Albert Baghzian stress that the underlying grievances that sparked the January protests remain unresolved and may be amplified by war‑induced hardships. Key signs of strain include:Rising public dissatisfaction expressed by activists like Rahim Ghomeishi.Calls from the Islamic National Unity party to halt executions, after at least 22 political prisoners were executed between 17 March and 27 April.Parliamentary attempts to impeach the communications minister over the gradual lifting of internet censorship.Power struggles between civilian leadership and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), especially regarding economic reforms.Looking Ahead: Scenarios for Iran’s Post‑War FutureAnalysts outline two broad trajectories:Optimistic path: If the United States, led by Donald Trump, lifts sanctions and unfreezes assets, limited capital inflows could ease inflation and fund reconstruction, though structural inefficiencies may blunt the impact.Pessimistic path: Continued blockade and lack of foreign investment would embed scarcity, turning wartime devastation into a permanent social condition marked by chronic inflation, energy shortages and political repression.The ultimate test will be whether Iran’s leadership can translate wartime cohesion into effective peacetime governance, balancing economic survival with demands for greater political openness.

On June 5‑6, 2026, U.S. forces intercepted a wave of Iranian ballistic missiles and attack drones aimed at the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf states, even as Israel pressed its campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The twin flashpoints underscore a volatile escalation that could reshape diplomatic and security calculations across the Middle East. Escalation of US‑Iran Aerial Confrontations in the Gulf U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that seven ballistic missiles were launched toward Kuwait and Bahrain, and that four Iranian drones headed for the Strait of Hormuz were shot down. Six of the missiles were successfully intercepted; the seventh fell short of its target. In response, U.S. forces struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar installations on Qeshm Island and at Goruk. Missile and Drone Interception Numbers Reveal Operational Capacity 7 missiles launched – 6 intercepted, 1 missed its target 4 attack drones engaged and destroyed U.S. strikes hit 2 Iranian radar sites (Goruk, Qeshm Island) Iranian IRGC claims the attacks were retaliation for U.S. strikes and aimed at four oil tankers attempting to transit the waterway Lebanese army reported several soldiers killed, including an officer, in an Israeli strike on the Khardali‑Nabatieh road Regional Repercussions: Israel’s Lebanon Campaign and Global Shipping Risks The Gulf skirmishes intersect with Israel’s ongoing air campaign in southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah‑linked forces continue to clash with Israeli jets. The Lebanese army’s casualties highlight the war’s spill‑over potential, while Iran’s rhetoric frames the U.S. naval presence as an “aggression” that will not go unanswered. Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil passes—could trigger spikes in energy prices and force shipping firms to reroute vessels, increasing freight costs worldwide. What the Next Weeks May Hold for US‑Iran Negotiations Indirect talks between Washington and Tehran remain stalled, with Iran demanding sanctions waivers, access to frozen assets, and an end to the U.S. blockade, while the United States seeks a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and concessions on Tehran’s nuclear program. The recent kinetic exchange raises the risk that diplomatic overtures could collapse, potentially prompting a broader U.S. military response or a renewed push for a cease‑fire mediated by regional powers.

The Paradox of Growth: Datacentres, GDP, and ClimateThe latest March GDP figures reveal a troubling disconnect between economic expansion and environmental reality. While the economy grew by 0.3% in the quarter, the primary driver of this growth is a boom in datacentre investment. This creates a scenario where economic success is being achieved at the expense of the climate and long-term employment stability.The Datacentre-Driven GDP SurgeThe core of this economic shift lies in the massive private investment in machinery and equipment, which actually exceeded total GDP growth. This surge is largely attributed to the information technology and communications industry, specifically the construction of datacentres.Net Trade Deficit: Australia's net trade went backwards, with imports of datacentre equipment outpacing exports.Jobless Growth: Unlike traditional infrastructure, datacentres are designed to minimize human labor, meaning the construction boom does not translate into a sustainable jobs boom.Investment Shift: Without datacentre investment, non-mining investment would have actually contracted in March.The Hidden Cost of Household SpendingWhile the headline GDP number looks positive, the underlying data for households tells a different story. The rise in household spending was largely artificial, driven by a jump in electricity and gas bills following the end of government rebates.Per Capita Decline: When accounting for population growth, average household spending actually fell.RBA Impact: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates, contributing to a 0.7% drop in real per capita disposable income.Living Standards: Nearly half of the income decline was due to increased interest rate payments.Why GDP Metrics Fail to Reflect RealityThe Climate Council warns that the datacentre boom will drastically increase Australia's electricity consumption. Currently accounting for 2% of national electricity use, this sector is projected to jump to 6% by 2030 and 12% by 2050.This growth threatens to derail progress on climate goals. As electricity emissions are currently the main reason for falling greenhouse gas levels, the rapid expansion of datacentres—requiring massive amounts of power—could effectively destroy the nation's ability to reach net zero targets.The Future of Energy and EmploymentThe current economic trajectory suggests a future where growth is decoupled from both job creation and environmental sustainability. To avoid a climate catastrophe, Australia must urgently integrate massive renewable energy capacity and battery storage to power these datacentres without relying on polluting coal or gas.

The Energy Advantage In the race against China for AI supremacy, the United States dominates when it comes to access to the most cutting-edge semiconductors. But when it comes to powering the huge data centres that run on AI chips, China holds the clear advantage. That's because data centres, the sprawling computing facilities needed to train and run AI models, require vast amounts of energy. A typical data centre can consume as much electricity as 100,000 households, while next-generation “hyperscale” facilities can gobble up as much power as two million homes, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). China's Renewable Energy Boom China already generates more than twice as much electricity as the US, a lead that is expected to widen amid an aggressive state-led investment in the country’s energy grid. BloombergNEF, a research provider, estimates that China will add more than six times as much electricity generation capacity as the US over the next five years. Much of that extra capacity will be in the form of renewables such as solar and wind. In 2025 alone, China increased its wind and solar power capacity by more than 430 gigawatts, accounting for more than half of the additional capacity in the renewables added globally that year. The Impact on Data Centres A key element of China’s AI strategy involves integrating its data centres into its rapidly expanding renewables sector. Under the “East Data, West Computing” initiative, China’s government is concentrating the construction of new data centres in the country’s sparsely populated interior, where land and renewable energy sources are abundant compared with the heavily built-up eastern seaboard. Earlier this month, Beijing announced the start of operations at the country’s first “large-scale” renewable energy project to be linked directly to a data centre. Narrowing the Gap For now, the US still has the largest data centre footprint by a wide margin. According to Stanford University’s AI Index, the US had an estimated 5,427 data centres in 2025, compared with 449 in China. But as China constructs data centres at a blistering pace – its number of data centre racks grew 30 percent annually from 2016 to 2023, according to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology – the gap between the superpowers is rapidly narrowing. The Future Outlook “In the long run, the country that can provide cheap, stable, low-carbon electricity will have a major advantage in AI infrastructure,” Qiyang Xiong, a PhD candidate at Renmin University of China who specialises in AI and energy policy, told Al Jazeera. “China is a global leader in solar, wind and ultra-high-voltage transmission,” Xiong said. “This gives it an advantage in supplying western data centre clusters with large volumes of relatively cheap, clean electricity.”

The Meeting Between Turkiye and Indonesia Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto have held an “extremely productive” meeting in Jakarta as the two countries aim to reach a bilateral trade volume target of $10bn, according to Turkiye’s top diplomat. Key Areas of Cooperation The two sides discussed expanding cooperation across a range of sectors, including defence, energy, transportation, and the halal food industry, Fidan said on X on Wednesday. Defence Energy Transportation Halal food industry The $10bn Trade Goal Fidan said the two countries also “thoroughly evaluated” projects aimed at reaching a bilateral trade volume target of $10bn. The target was agreed in April last year, when the leaders of the two countries pledged to deepen ties and pursue “new breakthroughs” in bilateral cooperation. Other Issues Discussed For his part, Prabowo expressed appreciation for Turkiye’s support in the repatriation of nine Indonesian citizens who had been abducted by Israel. The two sides also exchanged views on developments in the Middle East, with particular attention to Iran and Palestine. “As fellow countries in the Global South, Indonesia and Turkiye share the view that regional stability should be maintained through dialogue, diplomacy, and the peaceful resolution of disputes,” a statement from Indonesia’s presidency said.

The Energy Imbalance Iran is facing more energy constraints as its summer season begins, with the widespread use of air conditioning and other needs during hotter months contributing to an imbalance between supply and consumption. Government's Limited Options For decades, successive Iranian governments have kept utility bills well below supply costs for households and offices through a mix of implicit oil-and-gas subsidies, administered tariffs, state-controlled pricing, and sometimes direct financial support. However, the negative impacts of the war with Israel and the United States on the economy mean the government has fewer tools at its disposal to deal with an energy crisis this summer. Data Analysis Despite having the world's third-largest proven crude oil reserves, Iran will have to import fuel again as demand outpaces refinery output. The administration's attempts to tackle the subsidies burden due to a mounting budget crunch have resulted in only limited increases in petrol through a complex three-tiered pricing system. Most users of Iranian-made vehicles have access to 60 litres (15.85 US gallons) per month of subsidised petrol at 15,000 rials (0.8 cents) and another 100 litres (26.42 gallons) at 1.6 cents. Any use over tier 1 and tier 2 is priced at 50,000 rials (around 1.4 cents) and Iranians are allowed a maximum of 30 litres of fuel per day under any of these prices schemes. Impact Analysis The Iranian government is running similar schemes for natural gas, electricity and urban water, with fears of social unrest making them averse to any sudden price hikes. There appears to be little the government can do to bridge the divide between lower energy production and growing demand for subsidised fuel, illustrated by the perpetual queues at petrol stations since the start of the war. Prediction The situation has worsened during the war, with strikes on Iranian energy facilities seeing Iran's gasoline production capacity drop marginally from 115 million litres (30.37 million gallons) per day to 110 million litres (29.06 million gallons). Meanwhile, consumption has jumped from 10 million litres (2.64 million litres) in 2025 to 140 million litres this year (36.98 million litres). US President Donald Trump's threats of more strikes on power plants have heightened fears of further blackouts and gas shortages this summer, meaning the energy crisis is likely to continue in the coming months.

The St Petersburg International Economic Forum: A Platform for Russia's Global Outreach The St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) is a three-day annual gathering that has become a showcase for Russia's efforts to deepen ties with countries in the Global South. This year's event, attended by 20,000 guests from over 130 countries, takes place against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and Russia's estrangement from the West. The Event Details: A Shift in Russia's Economic Strategy The SPIEF has evolved into one of Russia's most prominent international events, combining investment discussions and political debates. This year's sessions range from energy markets and artificial intelligence to information warfare and media influence. The Guest List: A Diverse Range of Attendees Notable attendees include an official US delegation, led by Rodney Mims Cook Jr, chairman of the US Commission of Fine Arts, as well as Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu Hassan, and China's Vice President Han Zheng. Saudi Arabia is the guest country this year, with Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud expected to attend. The Impact Analysis: Russia's Economic Pivot The SPIEF serves as a platform for Moscow to present its vision of the global order and cultivate political ties abroad. The forum has become a crucial event for Russia to demonstrate its integration into parts of the global economy and to redirect trade and investment towards new partners across Asia, Africa, and South America. The Prediction: A Strengthening of Russia's Global Ties As the SPIEF continues to attract foreign officials, executives, and investors, Moscow is likely to strengthen its ties with countries in the Global South. The forum will provide a platform for Russia to outline its economic priorities and foreign policy ambitions, potentially leading to increased cooperation and investment between Russia and its new partners.

The Trump Administration's U-Turn on Wind Energy French energy giant TotalEnergies is embroiled in a lawsuit between seven US states and the federal government as the administration of President Donald Trump upends domestic energy policy, shutting down some wind energy projects while pushing fossil fuels. The Impact on Offshore Wind Farms The case is tied to two offshore wind farms that TotalEnergies had planned in the US. The larger one, Attentive Energy, was to be built 54 miles south of Jones Beach, New York, and would have powered a million homes and businesses in New York and New Jersey. The smaller one, Carolina Long Bay, was meant to start operations in the early 2030s in North Carolina. The Financial Implications In March, TotalEnergies agreed a deal with the Trump administration to abandon those plans for $928m and invest in oil and gas projects instead. This week, seven northeastern states sued the Trump administration over that arrangement. The administration would pay the developers more than $2bn for withdrawing from the four leases and investing in oil and gas projects instead. The Future of Renewable Energy The Trump administration's move has raised questions about the predictability of the business and investment environment under a president who has peddled back many policies that were set up under his predecessor, President Joe Biden, a Democrat, including on investing in renewable energy. The suit filed by the northeastern states says the interior department 'failed to (1) provide a reasoned explanation for cancelling the Lease; (2) explain their change in position or account for New York's reliance interests; (3) address alternative means of achieving their objectives; or objectives; or (4) provide a genuine justification for their actions.' The Road Ahead Industry analysts say other developers have also received offers to reach similar payment deals to withdraw from their leases. Any more withdrawals from leases will further undermine investments made by states on building ports and other infrastructure, as well as training for people who would work there. 'Those companies who remain resolute may fare better in the long term,' said Kit Kennedy managing director for power, climate and energy at the Washington, DC-based environment non-profit, National Resources Defense Council. 'This moment will pass.'