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The ongoing war in Iran has ignited a fresh oil supply shock, sending crude prices soaring and rippling through economies worldwide. Analysts note that the conflict’s persistence is tightening global oil flows, prompting immediate spikes in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel costs. Energy traders report that the heightened uncertainty has amplified market volatility, with benchmark crude benchmarks climbing to levels not seen in months. The price surge is pressuring both consumers and businesses, as higher fuel costs translate into increased transportation expenses and broader inflationary pressures. Governments and central banks are now monitoring the situation closely, aware that sustained higher oil prices could erode economic growth and strain household budgets, especially in regions heavily dependent on imported energy. While the full economic impact remains to be quantified, the consensus among experts is clear: the prolonged Iran war is reshaping the global energy landscape, underscoring the fragility of supply chains and the need for diversified energy strategies.

According to a new United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) briefing, the global food commodity price index climbed 2.4% in March, marking the second straight monthly increase and the first rise in five months for the broader basket of grains, meat, dairy, vegetable oils and sugar.The surge is largely attributed to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed up energy prices and freight rates worldwide. The report highlighted that vegetable oil prices jumped 5% and sugar rose 7% during the month.Analysts warn that the war could trigger a broader wave of food inflation, as higher fuel, fertiliser and electricity costs increase the expense of transporting, processing and cooking food. About one‑third of global fertiliser production passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that has been effectively closed since hostilities began.UN projections suggest that, if the crisis endures, global food prices could be 15%–20% higher in the first half of 2026 than pre‑conflict levels. The FAO noted that “price indices across all commodity groups rose to varying degrees, reflecting both market fundamentals and responses to higher energy prices linked to the conflict escalation in the Near East.”Specific commodity trends showed global wheat prices up 4.3% in March, driven by deteriorating crop conditions and drought concerns in the United States, as well as reduced planting in Australia due to soaring fertiliser costs. Better weather in Europe and strong export competition provided some offset.In the United Kingdom, the Food and Drink Federation – representing 12,000 manufacturers – now forecasts a **minimum 9% rise in food prices by the end of 2026**, a sharp increase from the 3.2% forecast made before the Middle East conflict. This outlook assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens within weeks and that major energy facilities return to normal within a year – both uncertain outcomes.British producers are already feeling the pressure. The British Tomato Growers’ Association warned that consumers could see higher prices for tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers within six weeks as gas‑heated glasshouses become more expensive to run.Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently met with leaders of major retailers—including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Marks & Spencer, Aldi and Lidl—to discuss measures that could ease the cost‑of‑living squeeze and strengthen supply chains.Nevertheless, a Bank of England survey of over 2,000 chief financial officers revealed that firms expect to raise their prices by an average of 3.7% over the next year, up from 3.4% in February. Expectations for overall economy‑wide inflation also rose from 3% to 3.5%.

Richard Walker, executive chair of the Iceland supermarket chain and Labour’s appointed cost‑of‑living tsar, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the government should extend the 5‑pence fuel duty cut beyond its September expiry to cushion households from soaring petrol prices. The call comes as the Strait of Hormuz—a vital conduit for roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil—remains blockaded after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February. The disruption has triggered a sharp rise in global oil prices, intensifying pressure on the UK economy. Under current policy, UK fuel duty is frozen until September, when a review is scheduled. By contrast, Australia recently announced a 14‑pence‑per‑litre cut to its fuel tax, highlighting the disparity with the UK’s modest 5‑pence reduction. Walker emphasized on air: “Given where we are, we need to be thinking about extending or enlarging the existing cut.” He noted that the original 5‑pence reduction was introduced by the Conservative government in March 2022. Chancellor Rachel Reeves had pledged in her November budget to keep the cut in place until August, followed by a gradual increase over five years. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has signalled that the planned September rise will remain “under review” in light of the ongoing conflict. Data from the RAC shows that, since the war began, the average price of a litre of diesel at UK forecourts has jumped 30 % to 185.2 pence, while petrol has risen 16 % to 154.5 pence per litre. Opposition parties are also weighing in: the Conservatives propose scrapping VAT on energy bills for several years, Reform UK calls for a VAT cut on fuel, and the Liberal Democrats advocate a 10‑pence fuel duty reduction.

The United States is reportedly contemplating a daring military operation to confiscate Iran's reserves of highly enriched uranium, a move that experts warn would be fraught with significant challenges and risks.Ensuring Iran does not possess nuclear weapons or the capability to produce them using enriched uranium has been a primary objective for the US during negotiations with Iranian officials over the past year. This goal was also cited as a justification for the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities during last year's 12-day war with Israel and for initiating the ongoing conflict in February, despite ongoing talks with Iran at the time.Iran possesses approximately 440 kilograms (970 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60 percent, a level at which it becomes considerably easier to reach the 90 percent threshold required to produce a nuclear weapon. This amount theoretically could be used to produce more than 10 nuclear warheads, according to International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi.Iran asserts that its nuclear program is exclusively for civilian energy purposes, despite enriching uranium far beyond the required threshold. Iranian officials have expressed openness to discussing a reduction in the level of enrichment during past negotiations but have refused to dismantle the country's nuclear program entirely, citing national sovereignty concerns.In 2015, the former Obama administration negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran and other nations, under which Iran agreed not to enrich uranium to high levels and to undergo frequent inspections. However, Trump withdrew the US from this agreement during his first term as president.Challenges in Accessing and Transporting the UraniumAny military ground operation to extract the uranium would face substantial chemical, logistical, and tactical hurdles. Isfahan, where about half of the enriched uranium is believed to be stored, is over 480 kilometers (about 300 miles) inland, far from the nearest US naval ships. This would necessitate transporting US forces, possibly alongside Israeli troops, over a long distance through an active warzone, accompanied by heavy equipment.Securing a substantial perimeter around the site and holding that territory for the duration of the operation would be required, all while mitigating the risk of constant fire from Iran. Experts describe this as a risky and infeasible operation.Storing and Handling the UraniumIf the US were to successfully extract the uranium, it would likely be stored in the form of hexafluoride gas, which is difficult to handle and reacts with water to produce extremely toxic chemicals. The uranium hexafluoride must be stored in small, separated canisters to prevent neutrons from multiplying out of control.Any damage to these canisters could trigger the release of toxic chemicals, posing a radiological hazard. An alternative would be to destroy the cylinders on the spot using Army Nuclear Disablement Teams, but this would result in chemical contamination and environmental hazards.Previous Operations and Potential AlternativesIn 1994, US forces undertook a secret operation dubbed Project Sapphire to remove weapons-grade uranium from Kazakhstan. A similar operation for Iran is being considered, but it would require coordination with Iranian authorities and the IAEA, and a cessation of hostilities.A less risky approach would be for the US to negotiate a deal with Iran, resulting in the stockpile being left in place but under international oversight, being downblended, or being removed with Iranian agreement.

Despite a United Nations-led ceasefire in Yemen, which largely reduced hostilities four years ago, nearly 1,200 children have been killed or injured due to shelling, gunfire, landmines, and other explosive remnants of war. According to Save the Children, since the truce brokered on April 2, 2022, at least 339 children have been killed and 843 injured, with some suffering life-altering injuries.The United Kingdom-based humanitarian organization found that 511 child casualties, nearly one in two, were due to landmines and explosive remnants of war. Data from the Civilian Impact Monitoring Project (CIMP) suggested that children were more than three times more likely than adults to be killed or injured by explosive remnants. Save the Children attributed this to a lack of mine risk awareness and increased exposure due to child labor.“These figures are a reminder that beyond the front lines, the war on children continues in their homes, schools and areas where they play and help their families tend to land,” said Rishana Haniffa, Save the Children’s country director in Yemen. “Amid escalating wider regional tensions, there is a real risk of triggering a wider confrontation in Yemen and the Red Sea that could undermine hard-won progress to reduce armed violence in the country in the past four years, exposing children to even more harm.”The conflict in Yemen has also led to significant psychological distress in children, with blast injuries causing permanent disabilities, including injuries to the spine, amputation of limbs, and loss of sight and hearing. Children have experienced difficulty sleeping, daily fear, and anxiety, with some, like Kamal, undergoing life-changing surgery.

Oil prices experienced a significant surge, rising more than $5, after President Donald Trump stated that the United States would continue its military operations against Iran. This development has heightened investor concerns about potential sustained disruptions to global oil supplies.Brent crude futures saw a notable increase, rising $6.33, or 6.3%, to $107.49 per barrel early on Thursday. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $5.28, or 5.3%, to $105.40 per barrel. These gains followed an earlier decline of more than $1 in both benchmarks prior to Trump's televised address to the nation.The recent escalation in tensions between the US and Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, in retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks. This strategic move has disrupted approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, precipitating the world's most significant energy crisis in decades.Trump emphasized that the US military is nearing its objectives in the conflict, which he expects to conclude within two to three weeks. His remarks have contributed to increased uncertainty in financial markets.Asian stocks were severely impacted following Trump's speech. Most Southeast Asian countries, which heavily rely on oil imports, are particularly vulnerable to the sharp rise in oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict. The MSCI gauge of EM Asia equities experienced a 2.3% decline, while regional currencies weakened by 0.2%.Notably, South Korea's main stock market, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), plummeted by 4.2% after initially gaining nearly 2%. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung urged parliament to promptly pass a 26.2 trillion won ($17.3bn) supplementary budget to bolster the economy during what he described as the worst energy security threat caused by the Middle East crisis.Other Asian markets also saw significant declines, with Singapore's main stock market, the Singapore Exchange (SGX), slipping 0.8%, and Malaysia's benchmark index falling 1%. Markets in Indonesia and Taiwan declined by about 1% and 1.4%, respectively. Stocks in China and Hong Kong also fell, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite index dropping 0.53% and China's blue-chip CSI300 Index losing 0.74%.

President Donald Trump has announced a new policy threatening to impose 100% tariffs on US pharmaceutical companies that do not agree to lower their drug prices. This move is part of his effort to address the high cost of prescription medications in the US.The tariffs will specifically target branded drugs and their active ingredients, while generic drugs, which account for over 90% of medicines sold in the US, will be exempt for at least one year. Additionally, certain specialty drugs, such as orphan, veterinary, and other specialty drugs, will be exempt if they are from countries with which the US has a trade deal or meet urgent public health needs.Drugmakers that enter into pricing agreements with the White House and onshore drug production will be exempt from the tariffs. Companies planning to increase their domestic manufacturing will face a 20% tariff that will escalate to 100% over four years.The policy has been met with criticism from industry groups, such as the Midsized Biotech Alliance of America (MBAA), which argues that it creates an "unfair two-tiered system" that benefits large companies with diversified portfolios.Trump has been under pressure to lower drug prices, with US patients often paying nearly triple what patients pay in other developed nations. The announcement comes as the White House faces pressure from consumers to address rising costs amid other tariff-related price increases and high gas prices triggered by geopolitical tensions.

A virtual gathering of over 40 countries will set the agenda for a global military planning meeting next week, focusing on clearing sea mines and rescuing vessels immobilised in the Strait of Hormuz.UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper opened the summit by condemning what she described as “Iranian recklessness” that endangers global economic security and threatens the flow of vital energy supplies.The discussions are proceeding without direct US involvement; instead, the UK, France, Germany, Australia and several Gulf states are exploring practical steps to restore access to the strategic waterway.President Donald Trump has urged nations that depend on the strait to “build up some delayed courage” and “just grab it,” a comment that has drawn criticism from UK officials.The strait transports 10‑25% of the world’s oil and gas. Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned that reopening the lane “will not be easy,” given the scale of the disruption.Cooper outlined a multi‑pronged approach: diplomatic and economic pressure, reassurance for industry, insurers and energy markets, and coordinated actions to guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers.She cited more than 25 Iranian attacks on vessels, estimating around 20,000 seafarers on roughly 2,000 ships are currently stranded.Highlighting the broader stakes, Cooper referenced World Bank projections that a prolonged blockage could push 9 million people into food insecurity and trigger unsustainable spikes in oil and food prices worldwide.At a follow‑up session scheduled for Tuesday, military planners will consider how to marshal collective defensive capabilities, including the removal of mines that Tehran may have laid to sink ships.The meeting will be hosted by Britain’s Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood, London, with many international leaders joining virtually.Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch warned President Trump not to abandon “a mess he’s made” in the Middle East, echoing former US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s dictum, “if you break it, you own it.”Reform UK’s Nigel Farage said he was not “angry” with Trump for entering the conflict but found the president’s press briefings “difficult to interpret.”Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey urged Prime Minister Starmer to “step up” plans and present a clear alternative for reopening the oil‑ and gas‑laden shipping route.

Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.