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Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green Party, has made a strong call to action for the UK government to withdraw its trade agreement with Israel in light of the recent Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Polanski expressed his concerns about Israel's actions, accusing them of 'behaving in a completely uncontrolled way.'During the launch of the Green party's local election campaign in London, Polanski urged the government to take a firmer stance against Israel, stating that it is 'outrageous that Israel is still enjoying diplomatic and trade privileges from the international community.' He emphasized the need for robust sanctions against Israel and an end to the 'genocide.'Polanski also criticized the UK government's claim of not being involved in the conflict with Iran, arguing that its bases had been used to aid US bombers attacking Iran. He called for the disentanglement of UK and US military operations and a ban on the US using UK airspace.When asked about the economic implications of ending the trade deal with Israel, Polanski prioritized human lives over financial concerns, stating that the UK should not put 'a cost on people's lives.'In addition to his comments on Israel, Polanski criticized Labour's housing policies, arguing that Green-run councils would focus on building new council houses and 'stand up' to property developers who resist building affordable homes. He accused Labour councils of building 'luxury, unaffordable buildings that no one's ever going to live in.'Labour responded by accusing Green party councillors of trying to block 42,000 homes across the country since 2018 and said they were not delivering social rented housing in areas where they were in power.

Labour leader Ed Miliband is facing a dilemma over whether to support new oil and gas licences in the North Sea, a move that could undermine the party's commitment to renewable energy and climate action. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is pushing for the licences as a way to cut fuel bills, and some trade unions are also expressing support.However, Labour's green-friendly manifesto and Miliband's long-standing commitment to combating climate change make it difficult for the party to backtrack on its opposition to fossil fuel extraction. The issue has become a battleground between Labour and Reform UK, with Farage framing it as a fight between the 'common man' and the 'elites'. The North Sea oil and gas industry is in decline, and even if new licences were granted, it would take five to seven years for the wells to become productive. Moreover, the global energy market is driven by fossil fuel prices, so extracting more oil from the North Sea would have a minimal impact on UK energy prices.Instead of succumbing to pressure from the right, Labour should focus on investing in renewable energy and breaking the energy market into clean power and fossil power. This approach would not only help combat climate change but also provide a more sustainable and resilient energy supply.The article concludes that Labour must stay committed to its green agenda and not give in to the 'nostalgic fantasy' of North Sea drilling, which would only serve to benefit Nigel Farage and Reform UK.

Oil and gas markets rallied on Thursday as investors grappled with the shaky outlook for the two‑week Iran‑Israel ceasefire. Brent crude rose more than 2% to $96.77 a barrel, while New York light crude climbed nearly 3% to $97.23, still shy of the $100 threshold that many traders watch. The previous session had seen Brent plunge 13.29% to a four‑week low of $94.75. In the gas sector, the UK month‑ahead contract rebounded 1% to 115.35p per therm after a 15% drop the day before. European natural‑gas futures also recovered, edging toward €46/MWh from a five‑week trough of €45.30. The price uptick reflects growing scepticism about the durability of the ceasefire announced a day earlier by the United States and Iran, which included a pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. UAE and Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian drones, and Iran’s parliamentary speaker accused the United States and Israel of breaching several agreement points. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned of a “regret‑inducing response” if Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue. The latest Israeli barrage killed at least 254 people and wounded 837, prompting the Fars news agency to note that oil‑tanker traffic through the strait had been halted. Former President Donald Trump used his Truth Social platform to threaten that U.S. forces would remain in the region until a “real agreement” is fully honoured, warning that any non‑compliance would trigger “stronger than anyone has ever seen before” military action. Asian equity markets reacted negatively: Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.7%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged down 0.4%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 dipped 0.1%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.3%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB slipped 0.2%. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 trimmed 0.1% after a near‑4% rally the day before, while U.S. futures pointed to a lower opening on Wall Street. Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid noted that market stress has eased compared with 24 hours earlier, as the ceasefire news generated renewed optimism and reduced fears of a stagflationary shock. On the diplomatic front, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that Vice‑President JD Vance will lead a delegation to Islamabad, with initial talks slated for Saturday morning. Jefferies chief European economist Mohit Kumar argued that, despite its fragility, the truce is likely to hold because of the “mutually assured destruction” calculus. He added that both sides now see a ceasefire as the lesser‑evil, given the escalating costs of continued conflict and the strategic challenges of securing cheap drone interceptors and a reliable Hormuz passage.

On 23 June 2016, the United Kingdom’s electorate shifted from party‑centric voting to a binary choice between staying in or leaving the European Union. A decade later, about 60 % of the population still define themselves by the side they chose in that single referendum, turning a one‑off political decision into a lasting personal identity.While analysts often focus on the policy fallout—economic turbulence, party infighting, and shifting trade relations—the real impact runs deeper. The referendum ignited a civil‑war‑like split that continues to shape elections, media narratives, and everyday conversations across the country.Before the global upheavals of the George Floyd protests and the Covid‑19 vaccine rollout, Brexit was Britain’s most potent form of identity politics. It spawned new media outlets, such as GB News, and programmes like The Rest Is Politics, while also marginalising older cultural tropes like the “centrist dad” or “gammon” heckler on Question Time. Figures such as Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski now occupy the political fringe rather than the mainstream.The analysis draws on the new book Tribal Politics: How Brexit Divided Britain by political scientists Sara Hobolt and James Tilley. Their longitudinal surveys reveal a simple yet striking pattern: the referendum transformed a previously lukewarm public attitude toward the EU into a powerful, identity‑based habit.Prior to 2016, most Britons held only a mild Euroscepticism and gave the EU little thought. Even former Prime Minister David Cameron tried to silence the issue in 2006, believing it failed to engage voters. The sudden elevation of a niche concern to a national obsession forced ordinary citizens to pick a side, discuss it in pubs, and embed it into their self‑image—a process James Clear describes as building “identity‑based habits”.Data from Hobolt and Tilley show that emotional attachment to the Brexit identity was modest before the vote, rose sharply as the referendum approached, and surged dramatically after the result was announced. The post‑vote period saw a flood of EU‑themed merchandise, street rallies, and even flag‑clashes at cultural events such as the 2017 Last Night of the Proms.Crucially, the tribal divide has not faded. By 2025, only around 40 % of “Leavers” feel comfortable discussing politics with “Remainers”, and the sentiment is reciprocated. This goes beyond mere disagreement; it reflects a level of social discrimination where individuals on opposite sides would hesitate to share a home or marry into each other’s families.The authors note that the split now extends to perceptions of reality itself. Even in 2024, Remainers and Leavers disagreed on basic economic indicators, illustrating how the referendum reshaped not just policy preferences but fundamental worldviews.Class‑based voting, which dominated the 20th‑century British political landscape, has been largely supplanted by this new cultural cleavage. A previous study co‑authored by Tilley showed that the Labour Party’s turn toward the political centre in the 1990s eroded traditional working‑class loyalty. Today, leader Keir Starmer’s working‑class credentials appear largely symbolic, offering little substantive change.With class politics receded, culture wars have taken centre stage. The Brexit campaign’s vague promises about trade left the nation with a protracted, messy adjustment period. Immigration, famously dubbed the “baseball bat” issue by Dominic Cummings, remains the most polarising policy divide, followed by foreign aid and even the death penalty.Hobolt and Tilley’s most striking chart shows that while Remainers and Leavers clash over immigration, they share little disagreement on economic equality, workers’ rights, or public ownership—issues that directly affect household incomes. This suggests that the political battle is driven more by symbolic identity than by material concerns, benefitting those already financially secure.In sum, the United Kingdom’s post‑Brexit reality is one of entrenched tribalism, where a single referendum has reshaped social bonds, political discourse, and perceptions of truth itself. The nation continues to grapple with the legacy of a vote that turned a policy decision into a lasting cultural fault line.

At least 50 new accounts on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, made substantial bets on a US-Iran ceasefire on Tuesday, resulting in profits of hundreds of thousands of dollars. These bets were placed despite escalating rhetoric from Donald Trump and few signals of an imminent deal.An analysis of blockchain data shows that one wallet, created on Tuesday at 10am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8¢ and cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another wallet, which joined the platform on April 6, won $125,500.The trading pattern of newly created accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets has raised questions about insider trading and the need for regulation in prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators and representatives have introduced legislation to broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.“This is why these markets need regulation,” said Todd Phillips, a professor at Georgia State University. “We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”Polymarket and other industry players, including Kalshi, have acknowledged the need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms.

The recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran may provide temporary relief, but the oil crisis triggered by their conflict is far from over. After 40 days of fighting, the two nations agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with negotiations set to begin in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad.One of the key points in Iran's 10-point proposal is allowing shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20 percent of the world's oil and gas is shipped during peacetime. The strait has been effectively closed since the start of the war, causing global oil and gas prices to soar.Following the announcement, oil prices dropped to $92 on Wednesday, down from over $110 for much of the war. However, delays in restarting production and transport mean the energy crisis is far from over. For ships to continue operating, they need certainty about security during the next two weeks of the ceasefire.Even with the waterway reopened, it will take weeks for large oil tankers – now scattered thousands of miles away – to return to the Gulf to collect the millions of barrels sitting in large reservoirs. With very few tankers able to load or unload and their onshore storage full, producers began shutting wells, causing regional oil output to plummet despite efforts to reroute limited volumes via overland pipelines.Economists warn that the true impact on grocery bills will likely persist throughout 2026 and into 2027. Additionally, it will take years for the Gulf energy industry to repair facilities damaged or destroyed during the war.Shipping data shows that combined exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates fell from 469 million barrels in February to 263 million barrels in March – a decline of 206 million barrels, or 44 percent. Iraq's crude exports have been hit the hardest, falling 82 percent from 94m barrels in February to 17m in March.The 206 million barrels of Gulf oil lost since the start of the war would fill approximately 103 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the workhorse supertankers of the global energy trade. A single VLCC stretches nearly 330 metres (1,080 feet) in length, nearly the same height as the Eiffel Tower in Paris.To put that in more practical terms, if you drove a pick-up truck that averages 24 miles per gallon (or 10 litres per 100km), one barrel of crude oil would carry you about 730km or 450 miles. That is about the distance from New York City to Cleveland, Ohio.For much of the war, oil has traded above $100 per barrel, hitting a peak of nearly $128 on April 2. The value of 206 million lost export barrels at various oil prices is significant, with Brent crude being the global benchmark.

Since its inauguration in 1875, Mumbai’s Sassoon Dock has transitioned from a Gulf‑bound trading hub to the beating heart of the city’s fishing sector. Today, the once‑bustling harbour is marked by an unsettling silence.Rows of fishing boats sit idle under the morning sun, their colourful flags fluttering against the skyline. The familiar chorus of net‑unloading, diesel‑engine rumble, ice‑hauling and fish‑monger shouts has faded.Boat owner Shekhar Chogle, weather‑worn from years at sea, has been compelled to keep his vessel moored since the conflict began. Plummeting earnings, relentless labour costs and diesel prices soaring above $1.20 per litre ($4.54 per US gallon) have rendered fishing operations virtually impossible.The dock’s diesel pump now sits abandoned, draped with a wilted marigold garland. A worker returns from the petrol station empty‑handed, his wooden barrow holding six unfilled containers, underscoring the fuel shortage that has crippled cooperatives that normally supply affordable fuel, ice and equipment to fishers.This fuel crisis reverberates beyond Mumbai, affecting fishing communities throughout India and wider Asia. Fishers confront a stark choice: stay ashore and forfeit income, or brave the sea at the risk of further financial loss, jeopardising both individual families and entire coastal economies.A recently announced two‑week ceasefire between Iran, the United States and Israel offers a glimmer of hope, yet analysts warn that normalising fuel supplies will take time.For Chogle, the clock is ticking. “Our income has dropped significantly since we have not been able to take our boat out to sea,” he lamented.Despite the soaring fuel costs, a few boats still venture out. Morning markets persist, though catches are modest. Women in vibrant saris haggle over the limited fish, and a mother balancing a baby on her hip scrutinises each purchase, weighing cost against necessity.“If diesel prices don’t come down soon, I don’t know how we’ll survive,” Chogle warned, encapsulating the precarious future of Mumbai’s once‑thriving fishing trade.

Iran and the United States announced a two‑week ceasefire that will also guarantee safe navigation through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves.The pause comes as the conflict entered its 40th day, with hopes now fixed on a diplomatic breakthrough during talks scheduled to begin in Pakistan on Friday.President Donald Trump declared that the truce would be activated once Tehran fully reopened the waterway, linking the cessation of hostilities to the restoration of a critical global supply route.Celebrations erupted across Iran, and numerous world leaders publicly welcomed the development, describing it as a step toward broader regional stability.The fighting, which has drawn in virtually the entire Middle East, saw Iran claim to target U.S. assets in several Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, while Gulf nations accused Tehran of striking civilian infrastructure.Hezbollah’s March 2 attacks on Israel pulled Lebanon into the war, and although Israel has signaled support for the ceasefire, it warned that the agreement does not extend to Lebanon.Against this backdrop, Gulf and neighboring states have issued statements outlining their positions on the ceasefire:Saudi Arabia welcomed the truce, urging an immediate end to regional attacks and calling for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, emphasizing that the ceasefire should lead to a “comprehensive sustainable pacification.”Qatar described the ceasefire as an “initial step toward de‑escalation,” stressing the need for rapid implementation, full adherence by Iran, and the protection of maritime security and international trade under international law.United Arab Emirates diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash hailed the outcome as a victory for a war the UAE sought to avoid, claiming the nation now possesses greater leverage and capacity to shape regional affairs.Oman expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s mediation and called for intensified efforts to address the root causes of the conflict, aiming for a permanent end to hostilities.Iraq welcomed the ceasefire but urged the United States and Iran to launch “serious and sustainable dialogue” that tackles underlying disputes and rebuilds mutual trust.Egypt framed the truce as a crucial opportunity for negotiations, diplomacy, and dialogue, insisting that any lasting peace must respect freedom of navigation and consider the legitimate security concerns of Gulf states.Turkey supported the ceasefire and pledged backing for the upcoming Islamabad talks, emphasizing the importance of full ground‑level implementation and strict adherence by all parties.Sudan called the two‑week pause a “positive step toward de‑escalation,” highlighting its potential to foster diplomacy and regional stability.

Djibouti, a country with a population of less than a million people and no significant natural resources, has become a crucial hub for foreign military bases. The nation's strategic location at the entrance to the Red Sea, a vital maritime chokepoint through which roughly 12 percent of global maritime trade passes daily, has made it an attractive location for global powers.The country's President, Ismail Omar Guelleh, has leveraged Djibouti's strategic importance to advance his own aims, welcoming bases from the US, China, France, Japan, and Italy. These countries pay significant fees for the privilege of hosting their bases, with the US paying $65 million annually, France $30 million, China $20 million, and Italy and Japan over $3 million each.The Bab-el-Mandeb strait, a narrow corridor barely 30 kilometers wide, is a critical passage for global trade and communication cables. The region's instability, particularly with the US and Israel at war with Iran, has heightened Djibouti's importance. Federico Donelli, author of 'Power Competition in the Red Sea,' notes that Djibouti sits at the center of many global interests, including trade, shipping, and fiber optic connectivity.Djibouti's base-for-cash model is part of a broader development strategy, including significant infrastructure investment from Chinese firms and a new railway linking landlocked Ethiopia to the coast. However, the country's economic benefits have not trickled down to its citizens, with official unemployment near 40 percent and over one in five people living in extreme poverty.The opposition leader, Daher Ahmed Farah, has criticized Guelleh's rule, stating that the country's strategic position and hosting of military bases have not benefited the Djiboutian people. The US embassy has warned Americans to avoid areas near Camp Lemonnier, citing threats against US interests, while Finance Minister Ilyas Dawaleh has expressed concerns about the Iran war risks pushing Djibouti into deeper economic uncertainty.