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The Looming Threat of a 'Super' El Niño A powerful, or “super” El Niño – marked by 2C (3.6F) or greater increase in sea surface temperatures – is now highly probable for this year, lasting into 2027. Weakened trade winds allow warm surface waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific. This disrupts ocean circulation and alters weather patterns worldwide. Exacerbating Global Economic Inequality El Niño is intensifying an already unequal global economy. Food insecurity is not simply a climatic problem, but rooted in dependency and global market integration, while climate shocks expose how supply chains push risk on to the world’s poorest populations. 10 Potential Worst-Case Scenarios What follows are 10 potential worst-case scenarios – impacts that will not be evenly felt but disproportionately borne by poorer farmers and workers. Drought Drought hits rain-fed agricultural regions particularly hard. In parts of sub-Saharan Africa grain yields often fall during and following El Niño’s, increasing import dependence and raising food prices. Shock to global food supply chains Globally, there is a heightened risk of a shock to global food supply chains. Four crops – wheat, rice, maize and soybeans – provide more than 60% of the world’s calorie intake. Wildfire risk El Niño can heighten wildfire risk in some regions. In South America, it often reduces wet‑season rainfall, leaving vegetation drier and more fire‑prone; severe fires in Brazil in 2016 and 2024 burned millions of hectares. Excess rainfall Parts of the southern United States and South America, the Horn of Africa and central Asia often experience excess rainfall during El Niño, leading to flooding. Increased coal consumption Greater heat can increase already high levels of coal consumption in parts of the world. El Niño brings above-average temperatures and intensifies prolonged heatwaves in south Asia by weakening monsoon rains, which increases demand for air conditioning. Coal-based power systems in Asia supply about 70% of electricity in India and approximately 55% in China. Grid failure risk Drought also affects hydropower generation, increasing risk of grid failures. Colombia, for example, relies upon hydropower for about 65% of its energy generation. Declining fish stocks El Niño stops cool water upwelling in parts of the Pacific, limiting nutrient availability for phytoplankton and leaving small fish such as anchovies and sardines without enough food. Heightened geopolitical tensions over critical agricultural inputs More extreme weather could exacerbate geopolitical tensions. Rising temperatures reduce crop fertility and farmers often respond by applying more fertilizers. Higher rates of heat illness All these dynamics affect societies unequally. Workers exposed to heat stress face heightened health risks, particularly in physically demanding jobs such as agriculture and construction. Civil conflict Reduced crop yields and weakened economies often intensify social tensions. The likelihood of civil conflict in affected tropical countries can double during El Niño years. The Way Forward There is also extensive knowledge on building resilient agricultural systems that can generate food security while contributing to ecosystem restoration. But again, breaking out of an export-orientated, chemically intensive agricultural system will take large-scale political transformations.

As the 2026 FIFA World Cup reaches its climax, streets from New York to Tokyo are filled with jubilant fans, fireworks, and public screenings. In stark contrast, the enclave of Gaza experiences the tournament through flickering screens and intermittent broadcasts, a reminder that even global celebrations can be unevenly felt. Global Festivities Amidst Conflict in Gaza Major host cities in the United States, Canada, and Mexico have organized massive fan zones, live concerts, and street parties. Meanwhile, Gaza’s limited electricity supply forces residents to rely on battery‑powered devices and satellite dishes to catch the action. Community groups have set up small, improvised viewing areas, but power cuts often interrupt the experience. Viewership Numbers Highlight Global Engagement 1.2 billion people worldwide are projected to watch the final, according to FIFA. 85 % of households in the host nations have access to live broadcasts. In Gaza, only an estimated 30 % of households report reliable access to the matches. Humanitarian Lens: Sports as a Unifying Yet Elusive Hope The World Cup’s universal appeal offers a brief respite from daily hardships, yet the reality in Gaza underscores broader issues: restricted movement, damaged infrastructure, and limited media access. Humanitarian organizations note that even simple pleasures like watching sport become luxuries under blockade conditions. Looking Ahead: Sports Diplomacy and Gaza's Future Participation Stakeholders argue that inclusive sporting events can foster dialogue, but meaningful change requires sustained investment in Gaza’s infrastructure and lifting of movement restrictions. As the tournament concludes, calls grow for international bodies to leverage the global spotlight to address the disparity between celebration and deprivation.

The ScottishPower Debacle: A Pattern of Insensitivity A recent case highlights ScottishPower's ongoing struggle with handling deceased customers' accounts. A woman, who is the sole executor of her late brother's estate, received a debt collection letter demanding £130 for his gas account, despite informing the company of his death. Meanwhile, the company owed a £430 credit on his electricity account, which it eventually paid with a cheque issued in her late brother's name, rendering it uncashable. Repeated Errors and Lack of Communication The company issued multiple cheques in the name of the deceased, which could not be cashed. Despite numerous emails, ScottishPower eventually informed her that his electricity account would be closed, and it stopped replying to her emails. This is not an isolated incident, as other readers have reported similar experiences of receiving calls, cheques, and letters addressed to the deceased. The Data Analysis: A Trail of Distressing Encounters A newly bereaved widow received letters, emails, and calls from ScottishPower over nine months. A man received a cheque for £312 credit on his late mother's account, made out to her, along with a bill in her name for £191 and a letter promising a £60 refund. A woman received emails from ScottishPower complaining about unpaid direct debits from her late husband's account, weeks after informing them of his death. The Impact Analysis: A Culture of Insensitivity ScottishPower's repeated errors and lack of communication have caused significant distress to grieving relatives. The company's response to these incidents has been inadequate, with promises to review its failings but no concrete actions to prevent similar incidents in the future. The Prediction: Improvement Needed ScottishPower must take immediate action to improve its handling of deceased customers' accounts. This includes updating its records, communicating effectively with relatives, and providing a higher level of care and understanding to those affected. Until then, the company risks facing further criticism and reputational damage.

The Book Review It's difficult in 2026 to talk about Iran without confronting a lot of crude certainty. The average non-Iranian gets their information in snippets, filtered by algorithms. The Iranian diaspora is too fractured and traumatised to educate everyone. And the regime has muffled the voices inside its borders, responding to every major uprising with internet blackouts that hide both the people's rage and its own violent response. The History of Iran's Recent Past Bozorgmehr Sharafedin and Yeganeh Torbati's powerful history of the Islamic republic is a badly needed corrective because it is at once an engrossing story and a balanced, meticulously researched primer on modern Iran (the clearest I've ever read). And it is dramatic, personal and often heartbreaking, told through six lives lived at the forefront of the Iranian people's almost five-decade struggle with a corrupt regime that has stolen their freedoms, votes and many thousands of their lives. The 1979 Revolution and Its Aftermath In the 1979 revolution that toppled the Shah, the clerics united Iran's many unhappy factions by promising independence from western influence and economic prosperity (the first supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, 'declared that 'no one must remain without a dwelling in this country' and promised to ensure free electricity and water for the poor'). But, in the place of the monarchy, Khomeini and his acolytes built a mafia state that instituted gender apartheid, worsened every social injustice, killed the arts, decimated living standards, and isolated Iranians from the global culture and economy. The Rise of the Hardliners As they slowly push the reformists out, the hardliners stop pretending to be running a democracy. High-level bureaucrats flaunt their wealth more boldly. The clerics empower 'the [Revolutionary] Guards to enrich themselves', turning a military police force into a business empire that competes for government contracts and runs smuggling networks to overcome sanctions. The Future of Iran These movements are homegrown and deep-rooted, each building on the lessons and mistakes of previous generations. In present-day Iran, it's no longer religious minorities or women or young liberals protesting: it is Muslims, old men, parents, the poor. Stolen Revolution is a careful and unwavering account of the regime's absurdities and crimes. It should be required reading for anyone who cares about human rights or justice in the Middle East.

The City Council’s Unanimous Vote to Freeze New AI Data CentersOn Tuesday, June 10, 2026, Seattle’s city council approved a year‑long moratorium on the construction of new data centers serving the artificial‑intelligence sector. The decision makes Seattle the largest U.S. city to enact such a pause amid growing backlash against AI‑heavy infrastructure.Details of the One-Year Moratorium and Expansion AmendmentThe moratorium is framed as a window to draft regulations that address the electricity‑intensive nature of AI data centers and protect residents from environmental risks and rising utility bills. Mayor Katie Wilson emphasized that the pause will also let the city evaluate whether data centers constitute a “good use of urban land” and could tie future permits to local transit and housing investments.An amendment passed unanimously permits existing data centers to apply for expansions requiring up to 20 megawatts of additional power during the moratorium, a point that activists warn could undermine the pause’s intent.Quantifying the Energy and Investment StakesFive proposed data centers could consume up to one‑third of Seattle’s current electricity demand.Amazon and Microsoft are projected to spend $390 billion on AI investments in 2026.The amendment allows up to 20 MW of extra power for existing facilities.Implications for Seattle’s Tech Landscape and ResidentsLocal tech workers, including groups like Amazon Employees for Climate Justice and 350 Seattle, mobilized a campaign that generated nearly 100,000 emails to lawmakers. Activists argue AI expansion threatens jobs and could exacerbate power consumption, while lawmakers differentiate between civic‑purpose facilities (e.g., health and emergency services) and large‑scale AI centers.Mayor Wilson indicated the city will push for state‑level regulation of data centers in the upcoming Washington legislative session, and activists are extending their outreach to other Washington cities such as Spokane and Walla Walla.What the Next Year Could Hold for AI Infrastructure RegulationThe moratorium creates a testing ground for policy tools that could balance AI growth with environmental and social concerns. If the city successfully drafts stringent zoning and power‑usage standards, Seattle may set a precedent for other tech hubs. Conversely, the expansion amendment could spark legal challenges or pressure to lift the ban early if power demand spikes.

Government as Sole Electricity Buyer: The Core Proposal The Common Wealth think‑tank recommends that the UK government act as the "single buyer" of power generated in England, Scotland and Wales. Under the plan, a publicly accountable body would contract directly with generators – including gas, nuclear, wind and hydro – and resell electricity to consumers, breaking the current link between wholesale gas prices and retail electricity rates. Projected Savings: £74bn to £41bn Over Five Years Assuming gas‑driven wholesale prices stay at £100/MWh, the reforms could generate up to £74 billion in total savings over five years. If the Iran‑related energy shock eases and wholesale prices fall to £70/MWh, total savings are estimated at about £41 billion. Average household savings are projected at roughly £185‑£200 per year, equating to nearly £200 for many families. Why the Current Gas‑Linked Pricing Model Stalls Low‑Cost Power At present, electricity prices to consumers are set by the cost of gas, which determines the wholesale price for 80‑90% of the time while contributing only about a quarter of total generation. This structure funnels billions in windfall profits to private gas generators and leaves UK households with some of the highest bills globally, despite increasing renewable output. Potential Path Forward: From Pilot to Nationwide Reform The report suggests a phased rollout: Establish a public procurement agency to negotiate "public power purchase agreements" based on the average generation mix rather than gas prices. Maintain a strategic gas reserve to ensure reliability when renewables dip or nuclear units are offline. Encourage demand‑side response by incentivising consumption during cheaper periods and investing in battery storage. Align with the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero’s clean‑energy mission to reduce reliance on volatile fossil‑fuel markets. If adopted, the model would mirror centralized electricity markets used in other countries and the pre‑privatisation system of the 1980s, curbing excessive profits for gas generators and delivering more predictable, lower‑cost power to consumers.

Bold 35% Electrification Target Sets the Tone for Cop31Murat Kurum, Turkey’s environment minister and co‑president of the upcoming UN climate summit, announced a new ambition: 35% of final energy demand should be supplied by electricity by 2035. The goal is presented as a cornerstone of the Cop31 agenda, intended to accelerate the transition to a low‑carbon economy.Details of the Electrification Proposal Unveiled at the Opening SessionCurrent electricity share of final energy: ~20%Renewable share of global electricity generation: ~33%Fossil fuels still provide ~80% of final energyTarget sectors: transport, heating, industryKey speakers: Chris Bowen (Australia’s climate minister) and UN climate chief Simon StiellThe proposal was delivered alongside calls to curb the “worst energy crisis in our history” and highlighted the falling cost of clean technologies such as electric vehicles and heat pumps.Financial and Market Context Underpinning the TargetOil prices have surged above $100 per barrel due to the Iran‑Russia conflict.Renewable electricity is now the cheapest source of power in most markets.Electrification technologies are already commercially mature, but adoption remains uneven.These market signals reinforce the economic case for a rapid shift toward electricity‑based energy services.Implications for Global Climate Action and Energy SecurityElectrifying transport, heating and heavy industry could dramatically reduce greenhouse‑gas emissions, lower exposure to volatile fossil‑fuel markets, and improve energy security for vulnerable regions—from African clean‑cooking initiatives to Pacific solar‑diesel replacements.Experts warn that without a clear target, previous COPs have struggled to deliver on renewable‑energy and efficiency promises. The 35% goal provides a measurable benchmark for governments and the International Energy Agency to assess progress.Looking Ahead: What 35% by 2035 Could Mean for the WorldPotential reduction of global CO₂ emissions by several hundred megatonnes annually.Accelerated investment in grid upgrades, storage, and demand‑side management.Increased policy coordination as the International Energy Agency prepares a dedicated report on meeting the target.If achieved, the target would reshape energy markets, lock in lower‑cost renewables, and set a precedent for future climate negotiations.

The Revolutionary Undersea Data Centre InitiativeThe world's first wind-powered underwater datacentre has started operations off the coast of Shanghai, marking a significant advancement in sustainable technology for artificial intelligence infrastructure. This innovative project addresses China's pressing energy challenges amid its AI boom, combining renewable energy with natural cooling mechanisms to create a more efficient data processing solution.Technical Specifications of the Shanghai Lingang ProjectThe Shanghai Lingang undersea datacentre demonstration project, launched in May, represents a joint effort between HiCloud Technology and China Communications Construction, a state-owned enterprise. Located more than 6 miles (10km) off the coast of Shanghai, the facility is submerged 10 metres below the water's surface and operates with a capacity of 24 megawatts. Unlike previous underwater datacentre experiments, this project is uniquely powered by a nearby offshore windfarm, making it the first of its kind globally.Energy and Water Efficiency BreakthroughAccording to the Chinese government, the underwater datacentre reduces power consumption by more than one-fifth compared with traditional land-based datacentres. This efficiency stems from two key factors: renewable wind power and the natural cooling effect of seawater. In conventional datacentres, between 25% and 40% of total electricity demand is consumed by cooling systems that pipe chilled water around servers to prevent overheating.The underwater location also eliminates the need for freshwater supplies typically required for cooling, addressing a critical environmental concern. Traditional datacentres, known as the physical backbone of AI, have come under increasing scrutiny for their substantial water usage, with the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health warning that the water footprint of datacentres could reach 9.3 trillion litres by 2030.Investment and Economic ImplicationsThe Shanghai Lingang datacentre received 1.6 billion yuan of investment (£177 million), demonstrating China's commitment to advancing sustainable AI infrastructure. This financial commitment reflects the strategic importance of data centres to China's economic development, with the government having made support for AI a central pillar of its economic strategy.China released an AI action plan last year that called for the acceleration of datacentre construction, and has pledged that clean energy supplies for AI infrastructure will be "significantly increased" by 2030. The project's location in Lingang, a hi-tech free-trade zone that also hosts a Tesla gigafactory, underscores the integration of this technology within China's broader innovation ecosystem.Global Context and Competitive AdvantageWhile China is not the first country to experiment with underwater datacentres—Microsoft launched a pilot in the waters around Orkney, Scotland in 2018—the Shanghai project represents the first commercial deployment powered by offshore wind. Dr. Hanjiang Dong of Hong Kong Polytechnic University noted that "Microsoft was earlier in proving the concept, while China moved further on commercial deployment because it was able to bring together market demand, industrial capability, marine engineering and policy support more quickly into a commercial project."This technological advancement positions China as a leader in sustainable data infrastructure development, potentially influencing global standards for energy-efficient AI computing as the industry continues to expand.Environmental Considerations and Future OutlookDespite its benefits, underwater datacentres present potential environmental risks, including disturbance of sediments and localized heating of seawater. Experts suggest these concerns are manageable but require ongoing monitoring. Professor Rick Stafford, a marine biologist at Bournemouth University, commented that "while the cooling using seawater will result in some localised elevated temperatures, these will not be far reaching."As China continues to invest in and develop this technology, the success of the Shanghai Lingang project could pave the way for more underwater datacentres globally, potentially transforming how we approach the energy and water challenges of expanding digital infrastructure. The integration of renewable energy with natural cooling mechanisms may become a blueprint for sustainable data processing in the coming decades.

The Call for a Fair Return Over the past few months, tens of thousands of Australians have emailed their local MP calling for a 25% tax on gas exports. More than 2,200 people have even chipped in their own money to fund billboards promoting the idea. Australians can see what’s happening: multinational gas companies posting enormous profits from exporting a finite resource while paying less in petroleum resource rent tax than Australians collectively pay in beer excise. The Investment in AI and Datacentres Huge investment in this space is pouring into Australia. In the past year, Microsoft has announced $25bn will go into Australian datacentres and Amazon Web Services has committed another $20bn. The prime minister has posed for photos with the CEOs of both companies, welcoming the investment with open arms despite a growing backlash by communities against AI and datacentre construction. The Environmental Impact By 2030, Australian datacentres are expected to consume as much electricity as every household in Victoria combined. Water consumption is forecast to more than triple. The Climate Council has warned that, without significant new renewable generation and storage, growing demand from datacentres could push wholesale electricity prices more than 20% higher by 2035. The Need for a Balanced Approach Australia should embrace new technology that improves our lives and helps us live within the bounds of ecological limits. We should welcome investment that creates value and helps build our future economy but we should also learn from our past. If multinational tech companies are going to use Australian land, Australian energy, Australian water and Australian workers to build the infrastructure that powers the AI revolution, then Australians deserve a fair return.