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The conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel has escalated on day 35, with the US and Israel widening their attacks on Iranian infrastructure. The strikes have targeted a century-old medical research centre in Tehran, steel plants, and a bridge near the capital, which Iran claims was civilian infrastructure.The human toll continues to rise, with at least 2,076 people killed and 26,500 wounded in Iran since the start of the US-Israeli attacks. Iran's Foreign Ministry reports that more than 600 schools and education centres have been hit since February 28.Iran's military has vowed to continue the war until its enemies face 'humiliation' and 'surrender', warning the US against a ground invasion. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has stated that it is ready for any type of attack, including a ground attack.In a significant development, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has abruptly fired the US Army's top general and two other senior officers, sparking speculation of a wartime leadership shake-up.The conflict has also drawn in other countries, with Pakistan pushing for US-Iran talks and the United Kingdom holding talks with about 40 countries on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20 percent of the world's oil and LNG. The US has lost 13 service members in combat and two to noncombat causes, with more than 200 injured.In Israel, sirens have become 'part of life', with residents repeatedly heading to shelters, especially in the Tel Aviv area. The conflict has also intensified along the northern front, with Hezbollah carrying out 60 military operations against Israel in 24 hours.

The ongoing conflict between Iran and the US-Israeli alliance has sent shockwaves through global oil markets, with Brent crude prices surging 5% to $106.16 per barrel on Thursday morning. Despite being heavily reliant on Iranian oil, China appears to have largely insulated itself from the crisis.China's strategy involves utilizing 'teapot refineries,' small, privately owned oil refineries primarily based in Shandong province. These facilities have been importing discounted Iranian and Russian oil, accounting for one-quarter of China's processing capacity. This approach allows China to circumvent US sanctions and maintain a stable oil supply.China's teapot refineries have been stockpiling oil reserves, providing a buffer against potential supply disruptions. According to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, China's seaborne crude imports in March stood at 10.19 million barrels per day (mbd), down from 11.51mbd in February but still in line with the 2025 average of 10.41mbd.The US has previously imposed sanctions on some of these teapot refineries for importing Iranian oil. However, China's tolerance of this independent system has proved strategically useful, allowing the country to maintain a flexible buffer for bargain barrels during crises.Experts note that while China's measures will not completely immunize the country from rising fuel prices, they do provide Beijing with more flexibility to survive a crisis compared with other nations. China's approach involves aggressive stockpiling, tolerating shadow networks, and keeping flexible buffers, demonstrating its preparedness for energy shocks.

According to a new United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) briefing, the global food commodity price index climbed 2.4% in March, marking the second straight monthly increase and the first rise in five months for the broader basket of grains, meat, dairy, vegetable oils and sugar.The surge is largely attributed to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed up energy prices and freight rates worldwide. The report highlighted that vegetable oil prices jumped 5% and sugar rose 7% during the month.Analysts warn that the war could trigger a broader wave of food inflation, as higher fuel, fertiliser and electricity costs increase the expense of transporting, processing and cooking food. About one‑third of global fertiliser production passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that has been effectively closed since hostilities began.UN projections suggest that, if the crisis endures, global food prices could be 15%–20% higher in the first half of 2026 than pre‑conflict levels. The FAO noted that “price indices across all commodity groups rose to varying degrees, reflecting both market fundamentals and responses to higher energy prices linked to the conflict escalation in the Near East.”Specific commodity trends showed global wheat prices up 4.3% in March, driven by deteriorating crop conditions and drought concerns in the United States, as well as reduced planting in Australia due to soaring fertiliser costs. Better weather in Europe and strong export competition provided some offset.In the United Kingdom, the Food and Drink Federation – representing 12,000 manufacturers – now forecasts a **minimum 9% rise in food prices by the end of 2026**, a sharp increase from the 3.2% forecast made before the Middle East conflict. This outlook assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens within weeks and that major energy facilities return to normal within a year – both uncertain outcomes.British producers are already feeling the pressure. The British Tomato Growers’ Association warned that consumers could see higher prices for tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers within six weeks as gas‑heated glasshouses become more expensive to run.Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently met with leaders of major retailers—including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Marks & Spencer, Aldi and Lidl—to discuss measures that could ease the cost‑of‑living squeeze and strengthen supply chains.Nevertheless, a Bank of England survey of over 2,000 chief financial officers revealed that firms expect to raise their prices by an average of 3.7% over the next year, up from 3.4% in February. Expectations for overall economy‑wide inflation also rose from 3% to 3.5%.

The US labor market demonstrated unexpected strength in March, with employers adding 178,000 jobs, significantly exceeding economists' predictions of around 70,000. This growth comes after a revised report showed that the economy lost 133,000 jobs in February, a worse figure than initially stated. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The job figures for January were revised upward from 126,000 to 160,000. With these revisions, total employment in January and February is 7,000 lower than previously reported. Despite the positive March numbers, the overall trend in the US jobs market has been sluggish since last year. In 2025, only 116,000 jobs were added to the economy for the entire year, which is roughly the same number added per month in previous years. The slowdown in hiring is attributed to caution among employers, particularly due to consumer inflation experiencing fluctuations over the last year. US inflation dipped to 2.3% in April 2025 before rising to 3% in September. Since the start of this year, price increases have remained steady at 2.4%. The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran is expected to drive inflation higher if the situation escalates. The labor market's uncertainty is also reflected in the 'quits rate,' which fell to 1.9%, the lowest since 2020. This suggests that workers are choosing to stay in their current jobs due to uncertainty in the labor market. Adding to the economic pressure, US average gas prices recently surpassed $4 a gallon, and experts warn that every $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil can lead to a 0.2% climb in inflation, reminiscent of the price shocks seen in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Fuel prices in Northern Ireland have experienced the sharpest increase in the UK since the beginning of the Iran war. Petrol prices have jumped by 19% and diesel by 35% since the end of February. A 50-litre tank now costs an average of £75 for petrol and £91 for diesel, up from £63 for petrol and £67 for diesel on 28 February.Northern Ireland previously had some of the lowest fuel prices in the UK due to tighter competition and links to Ireland. However, the gap with other regions has narrowed, with prices remaining the lowest in the UK. Across the UK, fuel prices continue to rise as the Middle East conflict shows no sign of de-escalation. Petrol prices have jumped by 16% and diesel by 30% since the start of the war.Analysis of Eurostat and UK government data reveals that only seven other European countries have recorded larger increases in petrol prices than Northern Ireland. The pattern is similar for diesel, with prices jumping by up to 44% in Estonia. In the UK, the north has seen the sharpest increase in petrol prices among English regions, with drivers paying an average of 154p a litre, up 17% from 132p a litre on the day the war broke out.Price increases in rural areas are similar to urban areas, but data shows that at least 100 stations in mostly rural parts of England and Scotland are charging between 180p and 210p a litre for petrol. The average petrol price for 10 major retailers has risen sharply, with Shell petrol stations charging an average of 158p a litre for standard unleaded petrol.Simon Williams, head of policy at the motoring services company RAC, said: “Drivers hitting the roads this Easter weekend will be faced with some truly eye-watering fuel prices.” Separate official data analysed by RAC showed that petrol prices have gone up nearly 22p a litre – or 16% – to an average of 154.45p since the beginning of the war.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has significant implications for the UK, particularly in the energy sector. Some have called for the North Sea to be exploited for its remaining oil and gas reserves, citing energy security concerns. However, the climate crisis demands immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, making it crucial to prioritize renewable energy sources.The North Sea basin is past peak production, with only limited amounts of oil and gas remaining. Moreover, the UK is struggling to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target of 68% compared to 1990 levels and is off track to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Any revival of homegrown fossil fuel usage would undermine these efforts.The reality of the climate crisis is worsening, with record-breaking heat across the US and devastating floods in Hawaii, northern Australia, and the Gulf states. The UK has also experienced record winter rainfall and the warmest February on record in England and Wales.The article emphasizes that the world is on course to exceed the 1.5C dangerous climate change threshold within the next three years, coinciding with key climate tipping points, such as the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. The rate of global heating has accelerated since 2015, and without drastic action, the 2C limit will be shattered by the late 2030s.In conclusion, the government must hold its nerve and prioritize climate action by leaving North Sea oil and gas in the ground, rather than doubling down on fossil fuel exploitation. This approach will help reduce emissions, promote renewable energy, and mitigate the worst effects of the climate crisis.

Richard Walker, executive chair of the Iceland supermarket chain and Labour’s appointed cost‑of‑living tsar, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the government should extend the 5‑pence fuel duty cut beyond its September expiry to cushion households from soaring petrol prices. The call comes as the Strait of Hormuz—a vital conduit for roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil—remains blockaded after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February. The disruption has triggered a sharp rise in global oil prices, intensifying pressure on the UK economy. Under current policy, UK fuel duty is frozen until September, when a review is scheduled. By contrast, Australia recently announced a 14‑pence‑per‑litre cut to its fuel tax, highlighting the disparity with the UK’s modest 5‑pence reduction. Walker emphasized on air: “Given where we are, we need to be thinking about extending or enlarging the existing cut.” He noted that the original 5‑pence reduction was introduced by the Conservative government in March 2022. Chancellor Rachel Reeves had pledged in her November budget to keep the cut in place until August, followed by a gradual increase over five years. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has signalled that the planned September rise will remain “under review” in light of the ongoing conflict. Data from the RAC shows that, since the war began, the average price of a litre of diesel at UK forecourts has jumped 30 % to 185.2 pence, while petrol has risen 16 % to 154.5 pence per litre. Opposition parties are also weighing in: the Conservatives propose scrapping VAT on energy bills for several years, Reform UK calls for a VAT cut on fuel, and the Liberal Democrats advocate a 10‑pence fuel duty reduction.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about a potential global food crisis due to its impact on fertiliser supplies. The strait is a critical passage for 20% of global natural gas shipments and a third of the global trade in raw materials for fertiliser.The head of the International Rescue Committee, David Miliband, has warned that the situation is a 'food security timebomb', with the window to avert a massive global hunger crisis rapidly closing.Fertiliser prices have already risen by more than 60% in Egypt, reaching $780 (£586) a tonne, up from about $484 in late February. The Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), the world's largest single site for urea exports, has been offline for almost a month.The Middle East is the source of about 45% of the global trade in sulphur, a key raw material for fertiliser manufacture. Iran is the fourth-largest global exporter of urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertiliser.A prolonged transport shutdown could disrupt production and increase costs, leading to higher food prices and exacerbating global hunger. The world's poorest countries are among the most vulnerable to fertiliser price rises.

The United States has reaffirmed that it is still prepared to engage Tehran in diplomatic talks, despite the ongoing US‑Israel war against Iran and President Donald Trump’s renewed threats to target the country’s civilian infrastructure. State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott told Al Jazeera that President Trump had pursued negotiations with Iran before the conflict erupted, but accused the Iranian regime of persisting in its quest for a nuclear weapon. "The president is always open to diplomacy, but he’s also clear that we will see our objectives fulfilled here," Pigott said, underscoring the administration’s dual track of diplomatic engagement and military pressure. In a primetime address aired on Wednesday, Trump echoed his earlier claims that the United States is winning the war, yet offered no concrete roadmap for ending the hostilities or reopening the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint whose closure by Tehran has driven global energy prices higher. The conflict began on February 28, shortly after a round of Geneva talks that Omani mediators and Iranian officials described as “positive.” Last year, Israel struck Iran’s three primary nuclear facilities in an operation the White House dubbed “Midnight Hammer.” Iran continues to deny any intention to develop a nuclear weapon, while Israel is widely believed to possess an undeclared nuclear arsenal. Former intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard testified to Congress that Iran was not rebuilding enrichment capacity before the June 2025 attacks, and later reiterated that there have been no efforts to restore its nuclear program since the strikes. Nevertheless, Tehran insists on the right to enrich uranium domestically and has ruled out negotiations over its missile program and support for groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Pigott emphasized that the United States is maintaining high‑level diplomatic contacts across the region, stating, "We see diplomatic engagement at the highest levels of this administration, with our partners in the region, to pursue our interests and explore what can happen here." The spokesperson also accused Iran of targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, describing the threat of a nuclear‑armed Tehran as "intolerable." In response, Iran has launched missile and drone attacks against U.S. and Israeli assets, as well as energy facilities, hotels, and airports throughout the Middle East. Trump later posted footage of a U.S. strike on a major Iranian bridge, warning that similar attacks could follow. He wrote on social media, "IT IS TIME FOR IRAN TO MAKE A DEAL BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE, and there is nothing left of what could become a great country." In the same speech, he threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants and, earlier in the week, suggested the United States could also target water desalination stations – actions that legal experts say would constitute collective punishment under international law. Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, told Al Jazeera that Trump appears to be "scrambling" to intensify the war in hopes of forcing a resolution before the conflict turns into a definitive failure.