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American consumers are watching gasoline and airline fares climb, while economists warn that the war in Iran will keep pressure on prices across the U.S. economy.“The good old days are gone,” said Christopher Tang, a professor at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management who studies global supply chains. “We see gasoline prices rising now, but that’s only the tip of the iceberg; everything will become more expensive.”Since the conflict began in late February, crude oil has surged past $110 a barrel. The rally is tied to Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes.In a recent address, President Donald Trump claimed the United States is “totally independent of the Middle East” and has “plenty of gas.” However, Brookings Institute’s energy‑security director Samantha Gross reminded listeners that oil is a globally traded commodity and the U.S. still imports significant volumes, meaning American consumers will face the same high prices as the rest of the world.Iran has either halted shipments through the strait or imposed a toll of up to $2 million per vessel. Tankers are forced to take longer routes or pay the fee, inflating logistics costs for all downstream users.Major logistics players are already passing those costs on. Amazon announced a 3.5% surcharge for third‑party sellers, while UPS and FedEx have introduced fuel surcharges exceeding 25%. The United States Postal Service will add an 8% surcharge to transportation rates starting 27 April, noting the charge is “less than one‑third of what our competitors charge for fuel alone.”When the prices go up, they rarely come back down— Christopher Tang, UCLACountries have dipped into strategic oil reserves to blunt the shock, but economists such as Virginia Tech’s David Bieri warn that refilling those stockpiles will require buying oil at today’s elevated prices, keeping the upward pressure on the market.Higher oil costs ripple beyond fuel. Crude is a key feedstock for chemicals, pharmaceuticals and fertilizers, meaning the surge could translate into higher prices for prescription drugs and groceries.Cornell University’s agricultural economics professor Christopher Wolf explained that diesel, a major input for farm equipment and fertilizer production, is also climbing, raising the cost of both crop cultivation and livestock raising.Retailers and food processors are already adjusting. “If we anticipate higher costs, we start raising prices early to avoid a sudden shock later,” Wolf said, describing a “rational expectations” approach.The Independent Grocers Alliance warned that a 10‑15% rise in fuel costs could lift food prices by 2‑4% by mid‑summer, underscoring the broader impact on household budgets.Although President Trump expects the United States to exit the Iran conflict within two to three weeks, experts agree that even a swift resolution will not instantly reverse the price spikes.The strait’s strategic importance means the political risk premium on oil will linger. “You never know when this could flare up again,” said Northeastern University’s Ravi Ramamurti, adding that the effect is likely to be persistent.As Tang summed up, “When the prices go up, they rarely come back down.”

When President Donald Trump inaugurated Operation Epic Fury with Israel on 28 February, his administration outlined broad goals: neutralise Iran’s missile programme, cripple its navy and prevent a nuclear breakout. Within a month those objectives morphed, expanded and at times directly contradicted each other. On 29 March, aboard Air Force One, Trump told reporters that Iran had accepted most of Washington’s 15‑point demand list, conveyed through Pakistan, and even shipped oil to the United States as a goodwill gesture. In the same interview he floated the idea of seizing Kharg Island—the hub for 90 % of Iran’s oil exports—stating, “maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options.” The following day, 30 March, Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States was in “serious discussions with a new, more reasonable regime” in Tehran and claimed “great progress.” He simultaneously warned that, absent a swift deal, the U.S. would destroy Iran’s power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island and even its desalination facilities, and would force the Strait of Hormuz to reopen immediately. By 31 March, with U.S. gasoline prices climbing above $4 per gallon, Trump hinted at a rapid withdrawal, saying the U.S. would leave Iran “within two or three weeks.” He told European allies that if they needed oil or gas they could “go up through the Hormuz Strait” on their own, and rebuked the United Kingdom for not standing up for itself. On 1 April, Trump claimed on Truth Social that Iran’s new leadership had requested a U.S. cease‑fire, but only after the Hormuz Strait was “open, free, and clear.” He reiterated that the war was “not about oil,” yet threatened to blast Iran’s electric grid “back to the stone ages.” Iran’s foreign ministry dismissed the cease‑fire request as “false and baseless,” and the Revolutionary Guard warned the strait remained under its control. Following a U.S.–Israeli strike that demolished a bridge between Tehran and Karaj on 2 April, Trump posted that the next targets would be “bridges, then electric power plants,” signalling an escalation despite earlier talk of withdrawal. Finally, on 3 April, he suggested that reopening Hormuz and seizing Iranian oil could become a “gusher for the world,” a stark reversal of his earlier assertion that the conflict had nothing to do with oil. These rapid shifts illustrate a pattern of policy flip‑flopping that complicates diplomatic efforts, fuels market uncertainty, and raises questions about the strategic coherence of the U.S. approach to the Iran war.

More than 100 United States‑based international law scholars have signed an open letter denouncing the recent US‑Israeli strikes on Iran as a violation of the United Nations Charter and potentially amounting to war crimes. The letter, released on Thursday, asserts that the campaign – launched on February 28 – proceeded without UN Security Council authorization and without credible evidence of an imminent Iranian threat. According to the scholars, the legal basis for force against another state exists only in self‑defence against an actual or imminent armed attack, or when expressly sanctioned by the Security Council. Iran has not attacked the United States or Israel, and the Security Council did not approve the operation. The experts organize their concerns into four categories: the legality of the war decision, the conduct of hostilities, threatening rhetoric from senior officials, and what they describe as the dismantling of civilian‑protection safeguards within the US defence establishment under Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s “gloves‑off” approach. Among the most alarming incidents highlighted is the strike on a primary school in Minab, Iran on the first day of the conflict, which killed at least 175 people, the majority of them children. The letter also cites attacks on hospitals, water treatment facilities, and energy infrastructure, emphasizing that schools, health facilities, and homes have been targeted. The signatories condemn public statements by senior US officials, including a mid‑March remark by former President Donald Trump that the United States might strike Iran “just for fun,” and early‑March comments from Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth dismissing “stupid rules of engagement.” They argue that such rhetoric reflects an “alarming disrespect” for international humanitarian law, which is designed to protect civilians and combatants alike. Financially, the letter notes that the war is costing US taxpayers up to $2 billion per day, underscoring the broader economic burden of the conflict. The open letter was co‑authored by prominent legal scholars such as Yale Law School’s Oona Hathaway, former State Department legal adviser Harold Koh, NYU’s Philip Alston, and former Human Rights Watch chief Kenneth Roth. While the authors focus on the United States’ conduct, they warn of a heightened risk of atrocities throughout the region. Emphasizing the need for consistent application of international law, the scholars write: “We urge US government officials to uphold the UN Charter, international humanitarian law, and human rights law at all times, and to publicly make clear US commitment to and respect for norms of international law.”

The conflict between the US and Israel against Iran has taken a devastating toll on the country's healthcare system. At least 2,076 people have been killed and 26,500 wounded in Iran since the US and Israel first launched strikes on the country on February 28.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has strongly condemned the attacks, appealing to international health organizations to respond to the crisis. On Thursday, he wrote on X: “What message does attacking hospitals, pharmaceutical companies and the Pasteur Institute as a medical research center in Iran convey?”The Pasteur Institute, a key center for medical research and vaccine production in Tehran, has been targeted. The institute, founded over 100 years ago in collaboration with the Institut Pasteur in Paris, conducts research on infectious diseases, produces vaccines, and provides advanced diagnostics.According to the World Health Organization (WHO), over 20 attacks on healthcare facilities in Iran have been verified since March 1, resulting in at least nine deaths, including an infectious diseases health worker and a member of the Iranian Red Crescent Society.Some of the facilities hit include:Red Crescent warehouse in Bushehr province, which was destroyed by a drone strike on Friday morning.Tofigh Daru Research and Engineering Company, one of Iran’s largest pharmaceutical companies, which was hit on March 31.Delaram Sina Psychiatric Hospital in Tehran, which was significantly damaged on March 29.Ali Hospital in Andimeshk, which sustained damage from an explosion on March 21.Gandhi Hospital in Tehran, which was damaged during attacks on a nearby television communications tower on March 2.International humanitarian law states that health establishments and units, including hospitals, should not be attacked. The United Nations Security Council resolution 2286 was adopted unanimously in 2016, condemning attacks on healthcare and calling on nations to respect international law.The attacks on healthcare facilities are not limited to Iran. Israel has also targeted healthcare facilities in Lebanon and Gaza, resulting in significant damage and loss of life.

Iranian military units have launched a coordinated search for the two pilots of a United States F‑15 fighter jet that was struck by an Iranian air‑defence system over the country's southwest region. The operation, reported by the state‑run Fars news agency, is the first documented crew‑recovery effort since the US‑Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February. State media released images showing the aircraft's wreckage, including an ejection seat attached to a parachute, underscoring the seriousness of the incident. Reuters cited two U.S. officials confirming that a fighter jet was downed and that a search‑and‑rescue mission is underway for any survivors. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad‑Bagher Ghalibaf used the event to mock President Donald Trump’s repeated claims of victory, posting on social media that the conflict had been reduced from "regime change" to a plea for the location of the pilots. According to Iranian reports, the downed aircraft was an F‑15 likely crewed by two pilots. The Pentagon and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) have not issued an immediate comment, a pattern consistent with past Iranian claims that CENTCOM swiftly denied. Local Iranian television broadcast footage of the jet's debris, and officials appealed to civilians to remain vigilant for any survivors. The governor of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad province announced that anyone who captures the crew would receive special commendation, as relayed by the semi‑official ISNA news agency. U.S. lawmakers responded with statements of support. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer posted on X, "I’m praying for the safe return of the crew aboard the fighter jet and all of those working to rescue them in these dangerous conditions." Since the war's onset, the United States has reported the loss of three F‑15s in a friendly‑fire incident over Kuwait and a refuelling aircraft that crashed in Iraq, killing six crew members. Iran, meanwhile, claims to have downed dozens of U.S. drones and continues to assert that its new air‑defence system, introduced after the 12‑day war, remains operational. While President Trump and his advisers repeatedly assert that the United States has neutralised Iran’s air‑defences, the downing of the jet and the ensuing search highlight the ongoing volatility of the conflict.

A Malta‑flagged container ship named Kribi, owned by French shipping giant CMA CGM, successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz on April 2. This marks the first time a Western‑registered vessel has traversed the strategic waterway since Iran began restricting traffic following the US‑Israeli war that started on February 28.According to vessel‑tracking data from Marine Traffic, the Kribi is the first French‑owned ship to make the passage in the current conflict. The ship, sailing south along Oman’s coast, altered its declared destination to “Owner France” in LSEG shipping data, a move interpreted as a signal to Iranian authorities about its national affiliation before entering Iran’s territorial waters.The vessel was originally bound for Pointe‑Noire, Republic of the Congo, but the change in routing facilitated the safe crossing. No immediate comment was received from CMA CGM regarding the maneuver.Since March 1, only about 150 vessels—including tankers and container ships—have transited the strait, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. The majority were linked to Iran and to regional partners such as China, India and Pakistan. Beijing publicly expressed gratitude after three Chinese ships, including two Cosco‑owned container vessels, passed through the waterway earlier in the week.The strait historically carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Its effective blockage has contributed to a sharp rise in worldwide fuel prices, intensifying the ongoing energy crisis.U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that gasoline prices would drop quickly once hostilities end, but offered no concrete plan to reopen the passage, instead urging skeptical allies to take action themselves. French President Emmanuel Macron cautioned that a military operation to force open the strait would be unrealistic, emphasizing that only diplomatic efforts could restore free navigation.Macron is coordinating with European and other partners to form a coalition that would guarantee safe passage after the conflict subsides. In a commentary for *Foreign Affairs*, former Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif suggested Tehran could negotiate a deal with the United States—curbing its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and the reopening of the strait—thereby ending the war and preventing future confrontations.

At the start of 2026 Pakistan was sitting on a surplus of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). Three consecutive years of falling demand – from a peak of 8.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 6.1 million tonnes by late 2025 – were driven by cheap solar panels and reduced industrial activity. The government responded by quietly selling excess cargoes abroad and shutting down domestic wells to avoid over‑pressurising pipelines. Any gas that could not be diverted would have been pushed into household networks at a loss, adding billions to the sector’s crippling debt. Everything changed on 28 February when the United States and Israel launched the "Epic Fury" operation against Iran. The strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted missile sites, air defences and military infrastructure. Iran retaliated with hundreds of missiles and drones, choking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for roughly 20 % of global oil and gas. As part of its retaliation, Iranian drones hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City on 2 March, the world’s largest LNG export hub. Qatar, the second‑largest LNG exporter after the United States, declared force majeure and halted all production, releasing it from contractual delivery obligations. The fallout was immediate. Qatar’s forced shutdown cut its LNG output by 17 % and disrupted the supply chain that fuels Pakistan, which sources almost all of its imported gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Pakistan’s LNG arrivals plummeted from 12 shipments in January to just two in March. Monthly cargo data from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) show that the country received between eight and twelve shipments a month through 2025, but only two arrived after the conflict began. Price pressure followed. On 13 February state‑owned Pakistan State Oil and Pakistan LNG Limited bought eight cargoes at an average of $10.47 per MMBtu (totaling $257.1 million). By 12 March the two cargoes that did arrive cost $12.49 per MMBtu – a 19 % increase in just one month. Long‑term contracts have left Pakistan with little flexibility. Two government‑to‑government agreements with Qatar, spanning 15 and 10 years, commit the country to nine shipments a month. Even as domestic demand fell – LNG’s share of Asian markets dropped from ~30 % in 2020 to ~18 % in 2025 – the contracts remained binding. Solarisation has been a double‑edged sword. By 2025 Pakistan installed 34 GW of solar capacity, with about 25 GW feeding the national grid, driving an 11 % decline in overall electricity demand between 2022 and 2025. Gas‑fired power plants built for imported LNG are now under‑utilised, especially during daylight hours. Analysts warn that the surplus was predictable. “Pakistan’s energy planning has been locked into long‑term contracts with little room for adjustment,” says Haneea Isaad of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). The resulting circular debt now stands at 3.3 trillion rupees (≈ $11 billion), and the government is negotiating to off‑load 177 unwanted shipments worth $5.6 billion through 2031. With Qatar’s LNG shipments effectively halted, the country faces a potential shortfall of more than 21 % of its power generation capacity. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority confirmed that LNG supplies are under force majeure, while coal imports from South Africa and Indonesia continue. To mitigate the gap, Pakistan is reviving domestic gas production that had been throttled during the surplus period. Roughly 350–400 million cubic feet per day of domestic gas were previously held back for LNG imports, now being released to the grid. Nevertheless, analysts caution that even with restored domestic gas, imported coal and hydropower, “the energy shortage may persist, especially during the peak summer months.” Summer pressure is already building. The State of Industry Report 2025 recorded peak electricity demand of over 33,000 MW last summer, while winter demand sits around 15,000 MW, helped by solar generation of 9,000–10,000 MW daily. Furnace oil, the primary backup fuel, now costs 35 rupees per unit (≈ $0.12), more than double since the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Consumers with grid electricity face higher bills and possible outages; industrial users reliant on gas risk production cuts; those equipped with rooftop solar and battery storage are best insulated. “Returning to the spot market is unlikely given Pakistan’s dire financial position, and competing with wealthier nations would price the country out,” Isaad warns. “The realistic outcome may be planned load‑shedding of two to three hours daily.”

The conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel has escalated on day 35, with the US and Israel widening their attacks on Iranian infrastructure. The strikes have targeted a century-old medical research centre in Tehran, steel plants, and a bridge near the capital, which Iran claims was civilian infrastructure.The human toll continues to rise, with at least 2,076 people killed and 26,500 wounded in Iran since the start of the US-Israeli attacks. Iran's Foreign Ministry reports that more than 600 schools and education centres have been hit since February 28.Iran's military has vowed to continue the war until its enemies face 'humiliation' and 'surrender', warning the US against a ground invasion. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has stated that it is ready for any type of attack, including a ground attack.In a significant development, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has abruptly fired the US Army's top general and two other senior officers, sparking speculation of a wartime leadership shake-up.The conflict has also drawn in other countries, with Pakistan pushing for US-Iran talks and the United Kingdom holding talks with about 40 countries on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20 percent of the world's oil and LNG. The US has lost 13 service members in combat and two to noncombat causes, with more than 200 injured.In Israel, sirens have become 'part of life', with residents repeatedly heading to shelters, especially in the Tel Aviv area. The conflict has also intensified along the northern front, with Hezbollah carrying out 60 military operations against Israel in 24 hours.

The ongoing conflict between Iran and the US-Israeli alliance has sent shockwaves through global oil markets, with Brent crude prices surging 5% to $106.16 per barrel on Thursday morning. Despite being heavily reliant on Iranian oil, China appears to have largely insulated itself from the crisis.China's strategy involves utilizing 'teapot refineries,' small, privately owned oil refineries primarily based in Shandong province. These facilities have been importing discounted Iranian and Russian oil, accounting for one-quarter of China's processing capacity. This approach allows China to circumvent US sanctions and maintain a stable oil supply.China's teapot refineries have been stockpiling oil reserves, providing a buffer against potential supply disruptions. According to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, China's seaborne crude imports in March stood at 10.19 million barrels per day (mbd), down from 11.51mbd in February but still in line with the 2025 average of 10.41mbd.The US has previously imposed sanctions on some of these teapot refineries for importing Iranian oil. However, China's tolerance of this independent system has proved strategically useful, allowing the country to maintain a flexible buffer for bargain barrels during crises.Experts note that while China's measures will not completely immunize the country from rising fuel prices, they do provide Beijing with more flexibility to survive a crisis compared with other nations. China's approach involves aggressive stockpiling, tolerating shadow networks, and keeping flexible buffers, demonstrating its preparedness for energy shocks.