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Oil prices have reached their highest level in nearly two weeks, with Brent crude rising over 3% to $116 a barrel on Monday morning. The surge comes amid escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, with Iran accusing the US of preparing for a ground invasion.The conflict has disrupted about one-fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) supplies, plunging the world into its biggest energy crisis in decades. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a nearly 60% rise in oil prices since the start of the war.Analysts warn that oil prices are likely to keep rising unless maritime traffic returns to normal levels in the strait. US President Donald Trump has threatened to 'obliterate' Iran's energy infrastructure if Tehran does not relinquish its stranglehold on the waterway by a deadline of April 6.Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Capital Group, said energy consumers are only beginning to feel the true fallout of the turmoil, with Brent expected to rise towards $120 and beyond. The scale of the disruption has yet to be fully appreciated, with physical premiums at their highest ever.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will lead to higher prices and slower global growth, affecting countries worldwide. The Washington-based organisation emphasised that a rise in energy and food costs will harm economic growth this year and could leave lasting scars on the global economy.The IMF's analysis, published in a blogpost by its main department heads, including chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that governments with high levels of borrowing will have limited access to funds to cushion the worst effects of the crisis. The organisation warned that all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth should the conflict continue to disrupt the supply of oil, gas, and fertiliser from the Gulf.While some countries, such as the US, may gain from higher fossil fuel prices as net exporters of oil and gas, the rise in bills for petrol, diesel, and food will harm living standards. Businesses are also forecast to come under pressure to raise prices, possibly forcing central banks to raise interest rates to combat inflation.The IMF highlighted that about a third of fertiliser production travels through the strait of Hormuz, which could push up prices. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation projects that global prices could average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists. Natural gas prices have more than doubled in the UK since last December to about £140 a therm, while a barrel of Brent crude that cost about $60 before the conflict hit more than $116 on Monday before falling back to $112.The IMF added that forecasts for sharp rises in the cost of gas and electricity in Europe next winter are forcing governments to consider higher subsidies and welfare payments to the worst-affected households. The organisation noted that countries such as Italy and the UK are especially exposed by their reliance on gas-fired power, while France and Spain are relatively protected by their greater nuclear and renewables capacity.

The war in Iran has sent shockwaves through the UK economy, causing gilt yields to surge to their highest levels since the 2008 global financial crisis. This increase in borrowing costs has significant implications for Chancellor Rachel Reeves' fiscal policy, potentially eroding the £23bn in 'headroom' she had built up against her fiscal rules.Reeves had hoped that this cushion would allow her to focus on tackling inflation and stimulating growth, but with oil prices up 50% since the onset of the war, investors are now expecting higher inflation and interest rates. As a result, the government's cost of borrowing is set to rise, impacting its ability to fund public spending.The yield on 10-year gilts has jumped to nearly 5%, pushing up the cost of borrowing and forcing Reeves to reconsider her spending plans. This development has also raised concerns about the UK's economic fragility and the potential for a Labour leadership contest to be triggered after the May local elections.Economists warn that the chancellor has probably already lost a third to half of her headroom due to the combination of higher inflation, weaker employment, and surging gilt yields. The situation is further complicated by the UK's high debt levels and reliance on global markets, leaving little room for maneuver for any future government.The implications of this crisis extend beyond Reeves, raising questions about the economic pitch of any potential steward of the economy, whether from Labour or other parties. As Angela Rayner considers John Healey as a potential chancellor, the need for a carefully plotted economic policy that balances growth and fiscal responsibility has become increasingly urgent.

The concept of luck has long been shrouded in mystery, often attributed to chance or fate. However, behavioural neuroscience has made significant strides in uncovering the underlying mechanisms that govern luck. According to research, luck is not just a roll of the dice, but rather a complex interplay of brain chemistry and behaviour that can be influenced and cultivated.The neuroscience behind luck reveals that it operates through identifiable patterns of brain chemistry and behaviour. Studies have shown that the consistently lucky are not blessed by fate, but rather, they possess a unique set of habits and characteristics that enable them to capitalize on opportunities and navigate challenges more effectively. Brain imaging techniques have even identified specific regions of the brain that are activated when individuals perceive themselves as lucky, shifting their perception from threat-detection mode to opportunity-recognition mode.Serotonin production, regulated by morning sunlight, tryptophan-rich foods, and a regular sleep-wake cycle, plays a critical role in determining one's luck. Individuals who prioritize these factors are more likely to experience a boost in serotonin levels, which in turn, enhances their mood, social confidence, and resilience. Conversely, those who lead erratic lifestyles and neglect these factors may find themselves chronically sleep-deprived and less likely to encounter fortunate events.Lucky individuals also tend to possess a clear awareness of their interests and passions, which guides their decision-making and behaviour. By following their 'fascination compass', they are more likely to stumble upon opportunities and experiences that align with their values and goals. Novelty-seeking and a willingness to take calculated risks also characterize lucky individuals, as they understand that each small departure from routine can be a ticket to new experiences and encounters.Generosity and a willingness to help others without expectation of return are also key characteristics of lucky individuals. Brain imaging studies have shown that acts of genuine generosity activate the brain's deepest reward centre, releasing feel-good chemicals that reinforce positive behaviours and build social capital. By investing in others and cultivating meaningful relationships, lucky individuals create a network of opportunities and support that can help them navigate life's challenges.In conclusion, luck is not just a matter of chance, but rather a complex interplay of brain chemistry, behaviour, and habit. By understanding the underlying mechanisms that govern luck and incorporating these insights into daily life, individuals can increase their chances of experiencing fortunate events and leading a more fulfilling life.

Gulf countries are increasingly concerned about the threat posed by Iran-backed militias and proxy armed groups in the region. These groups, which include Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, have been used by Iran as a pillar of its foreign and security policy for decades.In a joint statement, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan condemned Iranian attacks on their soil, both as strikes carried out directly from Iran and “through their proxies and armed factions they support in the region”. The statement also called on the Iraqi government to take measures to halt attacks launched by factions, militias, and armed groups from Iraqi territory.Kuwait recently foiled a plot to kill state leaders and arrested six suspects believed to be associated with Hezbollah. The Houthis also confirmed they had launched a missile strike on Israel, the first time the proxy group have admitted involvement in the war in the Middle East.The threat of these groups is seen as particularly worrying for countries such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, which have a history of Iran-backed militia carrying out violent attacks. Analysts warn that the presence and danger of Iranian proxy groups in the Gulf had not reached levels anything close to those during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, but the threat remains greater the longer the conflict with Iran drags on.Bilal Saab, a senior managing director of the Trends US thinktank, said: “If this war escalates, the worst-case scenario for the Gulf countries is Iran activating their sleeper cells and these Shia militia movements in the region. We could see a whole lot more if things really escalate.”

The US stock market closed on Friday with a significant selloff, sending the Dow into correction territory and marking the fifth consecutive week of declines. The Dow fell 800 points, while the Nasdaq index dropped another 2% and the S&P; 500 closed 1.6% lower.Oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude surging past $110 a barrel. Despite Donald Trump's announcement of extending a pause on Iranian energy strikes, markets remained on edge. Trump has suggested that oil prices and the stock market will stabilize once the conflict ends, but it's unclear if markets will believe him.Consumer sentiment in the US has also declined, with a 6% drop in March, according to a University of Michigan survey. This decline was observed across all age groups, political parties, and income levels. Inflation expectations rose from 3.4% to 3.8%, the largest one-month increase since last April.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revised its global GDP growth projections downward, citing the Iran conflict as a significant source of uncertainty. The report warned of higher global inflation due to the spike in energy prices and noted that the Middle East conflict would disproportionately affect the UK's economy.

US markets witnessed a significant downturn on Thursday, marking their biggest slump since the onset of the US-Israel war with Iran. The Dow closed 450 points down, while the S&P 500 dipped 1.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 2.3%, plunging into correction territory, which occurs when an index falls at least 10% below its most recent peak. The conflict has led to a surge in oil prices, reaching levels not seen since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At the end of the day on Thursday, Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, was about $107 a barrel, while US crude hit $93 a barrel. Average US gas prices at the pump reached $3.98 a gallon, according to AAA. Despite the soaring prices, Donald Trump said that oil prices “have not gone up as much as I thought” during a cabinet meeting on Thursday. He predicted that prices would “come back down to where it was, and probably lower,” and that the impact on the stock market would reverse once the conflict ends. Markets have been growing weary of Trump's mixed signals on the US's stance in negotiations with Iran. Stocks dipped on Thursday morning after Trump posted a warning to Iranian negotiators that they “better get serious, before it’s too late.” However, later in the morning, Trump said that there were “very substantial talks” happening with Iran and that the country allowed 10 oil tankers to pass the blocked strait of Hormuz. The White House announced it will extend a pause on Iranian energy infrastructure strikes by 10 days, until 6 April. A new report estimates US inflation will average 4.2% this year, compared with an average of about 2.6% in 2025, according to the Organization for Economic and Cooperation and Development (OECD). The increase in inflation reverses what was expected to be strong growth for the global economy before the conflict began.

In 2025, England's rivers and seas were hit by 291,492 instances of raw sewage discharge from storm overflows, a 35% reduction from the previous year. The discharges lasted for 1.8 million hours, a significant decrease from almost 4 million hours in 2024. The Environment Agency (EA) reported that some water companies achieved reductions of over 60% and 70% compared to the previous year. However, campaigners argue that the discharges, which are only supposed to occur in extreme weather conditions, are still too frequent and harmful to the environment. Richard Benwell, chief executive of Wildlife and Countryside Link, stated, 'When sewage is pouring out even in a dry year, you really know the system is broken.' He emphasized that rivers, lakes, and seas should not be used as pressure valves for pollution. The water industry acknowledged that dry conditions contributed to the reduction in discharges but also cited record levels of investment in the system. Water UK stated that the industry aims to halve spills over the next five years by building bigger storm tanks and expanding capacity at sewage treatment works. Michelle Walker, technical director for the Rivers Trust, highlighted that many discharges occur on dry days and are therefore illegal. She warned that the impact of these discharges will be more concentrated and damaging in already stressed ecosystems. The government and water companies face criticism for the ongoing pollution. Water minister Emma Hardy said there is still an unacceptable amount of sewage entering waterways and a long way to go in cleaning up rivers, lakes, and seas.

Europe is bracing for a potential energy crisis, with fuel rationing possible as early as April if the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil and gas supplies, remains closed. Shell's CEO, Wael Sawan, issued this stark warning at a major oil industry conference in Texas, highlighting the escalating risks to global energy supplies.The crisis, now in its fourth week, has already led to energy rationing in Asian countries and significant price hikes for jet fuel, which has doubled in price since the start of the conflict. Sawan predicts that diesel and petrol will come under pressure next, particularly as the summer driving season begins in the US and Europe.Oil prices have fluctuated, dipping back to about $100 a barrel on Wednesday after reaching highs of around $114 earlier in the week. These developments have raised concerns about the potential for a prolonged global economic recession if oil prices continue to rise, with some predictions suggesting they could hit $150 a barrel.Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, warned of profound implications for the world economy if the conflict continues to drive up oil prices. He outlined two possible scenarios: one where the conflict resolves quickly, allowing oil prices to return to pre-crisis levels of about $70 a barrel, and another where prices remain high for years, potentially leading to a stark and steep recession.Germany's economy minister, Katherina Reiche, also spoke at the conference, cautioning that energy supply scarcity could occur in late April or May if the conflict continues. She criticized Germany's decision to phase out nuclear energy and emphasized the need for greater imports of gas via super-chilled tankers from overseas.