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On Tuesday, shipping data from LSEG and Kpler confirmed that at least three tankers entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, including the Panama‑flagged Peace Gulf, which is bound for Hamriyah port in the United Arab Emirates. Earlier that day, two U.S.–sanctioned vessels, the Rich Starry and the Elpis, also transited the waterway. Because none of these ships were destined for Iranian ports, they remain exempt from the U.S. blockade that began on Monday. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that, as of 10 a.m. ET (14:00 GMT) on Monday, a naval blockade was in effect against all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, in line with the presidential order issued by former President Trump. The directive applies to "vessels of all nations" operating in Iranian coastal waters, including the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Tehran has warned of possible retaliation against ports in neighboring Gulf states. In response to the blockade, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ordered every ship to follow a newly‑drawn navigation map that forces vessels to enter the strait north of Larak Island and exit south of it, citing the risk of anti‑ship mines in the former main traffic zone. Before the conflict, the strait functioned like a divided highway with two dedicated lanes—each about 3.2 km long—carrying roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments. The IRGC now classifies the original lanes as "restricted" and has effectively closed them. Ship traffic has collapsed by **more than 95 %** since the war began. Kpler’s tracking data shows that only **279 vessels** passed through the strait between Feb. 28 and Apr. 12, a stark contrast to the pre‑war average of around **100 ships per day**. Even after a cease‑fire took effect on Apr. 8, a mere **45 ships** have entered or exited the waterway. The disruption has left hundreds of tankers and other vessels stranded in the Gulf, slashing global oil and gas supplies by an estimated **20 %**—the largest fuel‑supply shock on record. Damage to Gulf energy infrastructure and the sharp reduction in shipments have pushed crude prices up by roughly **50 %**, with Asian importers bearing the brunt of the price spike. According to the same Kpler data, **22 ships** have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict started. The incidents are distributed as follows: eight in United Arab Emirates waters, six in Omani waters, two each in Iraqi and Qatari waters, and one each in Bahraini, Kuwaiti, Saudi and Iranian waters. These figures underscore the strategic vulnerability of the world’s most critical energy chokepoint and highlight how the combined effect of the U.S. naval blockade and Iran’s alternate routing has reshaped global shipping patterns and commodity markets.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a stark warning: if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by the ongoing US‑Israel conflict with Iran, the world could face a food ‘catastrophe’. The disruption is already halting shipments of vital agricultural inputs, a situation that could quickly cascade into higher food prices. FAO chief economist Maximo Torero told Al Jazeera that, for now, food prices have stayed stable because existing stockpiles are absorbing the shock. However, he cautioned that this buffer is temporary and that “the clock is ticking.” FAO agrifood economics director David Laborde added that if traffic does not resume, the resulting strain on energy and fertilizer markets will translate into “higher commodity and retail prices later this year and into 2027.” According to the FAO, 20‑45% of key agrifood inputs—including fertilizers, pesticides and feed—depend on maritime passage through the Hormuz chokepoint. Nearly half of the world’s traded urea, the most widely used fertilizer, also moves through the strait, making global agriculture highly vulnerable. Recent gas supply disruptions have already forced fertilizer plants in the Gulf and beyond to cut or halt production, raising concerns that farmers may have to reduce fertilizer use or face higher production costs. Torero emphasized that poorer countries are especially at risk because planting calendars leave little room for delays; a slowdown in input delivery could quickly lead to “lower output, higher inflation and slower global growth.” The blockade stems from Iran’s decision to bring traffic to a near‑total halt in retaliation for attacks by the United States and Israel, which launched a war on Tehran on 28 February, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The conflict has already doubled oil and gas prices compared with pre‑war levels. Negotiations between Iranian and US representatives over a 21‑hour marathon failed to secure a permanent ceasefire. Subsequently, US President Donald Trump announced a naval blockade, stating that the navy would interdict ships in international waters that had paid Iran a toll to traverse the strait. The US military later declared it would block all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, including those in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. FAO officials stress that decisive action—both a sustained ceasefire and the reopening of the waterway—is essential to prevent the looming food crisis from becoming a full‑blown catastrophe.

President Donald Trump asserted that a diplomatic path remains open for Tehran, even as the United States enforces a naval blockade of Iranian ports and Israel deepens its ground offensive in southern Lebanon. Iran’s leadership denounced the blockade as "piracy" and thousands gathered in Tehran to demonstrate against the restriction on maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The Associated Press reported that diplomatic channels are still active; Pakistan has volunteered to host a second round of negotiations in Islamabad later this week. US blockade and protests: The enforcement of the maritime restrictions has provoked Iranian accusations of illegal action and sparked street protests in the capital. Tehran’s legal stance: Iran’s armed forces labeled the blockade unlawful, warning that targeting its ports could jeopardize broader Gulf shipping. IRGC warning: A Revolutionary Guard spokesperson hinted that Iran retains "unused capabilities" and may adopt new tactics if the confrontation escalates. Parliamentary support for the Pope: Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Pope Leo XIV’s condemnation of the war, describing it as courageous. Russian nuclear staff pull‑out: Moscow has withdrawn most of its personnel from Iran’s sole nuclear power plant, a project built with Russian assistance. Qatar’s mediation call: Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani urged both Washington and Tehran to engage constructively in mediation. Pakistan’s ceasefire assessment: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the US‑Iran truce is holding, even as weekend talks failed to produce a breakthrough. Shipping disruption: A UN spokesperson warned that there is no military solution and noted that roughly 20,000 vessels are stranded, straining global supply chains, especially for fertiliser. UK push for Lebanese inclusion: London advocated adding Lebanon to the US‑Iran ceasefire framework, which currently omits Hezbollah‑related fighting. US‑Lebanon diplomatic talks: Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors are slated to meet in Washington to discuss halting hostilities. Hezbollah’s rejection: Leader Naim Qassem urged Lebanon to cancel the planned Washington meeting, reaffirming the group’s opposition to any direct dialogue with Israel. Russia’s uranium offer: The Kremlin reiterated its willingness to accept Iran’s enriched uranium as part of a broader US‑Iran settlement, echoing President Vladimir Putin’s statements. Trump on Iranian outreach: The former president claimed Iranian officials have expressed a strong desire to negotiate, though he did not identify the interlocutors. Trump’s stance on the Pope: He dismissed criticism of Pope Leo XIV as unwarranted, labeling the pontiff "weak" on key issues, including Iran. Threat to Iranian vessels: Trump warned that U.S. forces will neutralise any Iranian fast‑attack ships that approach the blockade zone. Domestic political pressure: Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, are pushing for a new vote to limit the president’s war‑making powers, citing rising U.S. fuel prices. Protester arrests in New York: Approximately 90 demonstrators, including whistleblower Chelsea Manning and actor Hari Nef, were detained during a Manhattan traffic‑stop protest against the war and U.S. arms sales to Israel. Israel’s buffer‑zone push: Israeli forces continue ground and air operations in southern Lebanon, razing structures in border towns such as Naqoura to create a security buffer. Hezbollah retaliation: The group has intensified rocket and drone attacks on Israeli positions in locations like Bint Jbeil and Biyyada. Accusations of a "Greater Israel": Hezbollah chief Hassan Qassem accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of pursuing an expansionist agenda backed by the United States. Diplomatic tension with Italy: Israel summoned the Italian ambassador after Italy’s foreign minister condemned Israeli attacks on Beirut as "unacceptable". Casualties in Lebanon: Israeli operations have raised the death toll in southern Lebanon since March 2 to at least 2,089, including a recent drone strike that killed two civilians near Nabatieh. Public opinion in Lebanon: Lebanese citizens are divided, with some weary of the conflict and hopeful for diplomacy, while others distrust Israel’s intentions. Canadian casualty: Canada’s foreign minister confirmed that a Canadian national died in southern Lebanon, though details remain scarce. Energy implications: Reuters reported that a Chinese‑owned tanker, sanctioned by the United States, successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, underscoring the challenges of enforcement. Oil market outlook: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned that oil prices could keep climbing until "meaningful ship traffic" resumes through the strait.

Washington has activated a naval blockade of Iran’s principal ports, marking the first large‑scale maritime restriction since the 2015 nuclear accord. The move, aimed at pressuring Tehran over regional activities, has raised concerns among shipping firms about disruptions to the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass. Amid the escalation, President Donald Trump asserted that Iran wants a deal ‘very badly’ and that diplomatic avenues remain open. Trump’s remarks suggest a dual strategy of coercion paired with a willingness to negotiate, a stance that could influence upcoming talks in Geneva and affect global energy markets. Tehran, however, has condemned the blockade as piracy, accusing the United States of violating international law. The Iranian military’s statement framed the action as an unlawful seizure of sovereign waters, a narrative that resonates with a growing domestic backlash. In response, thousands of Iranians gathered in Tehran to protest the U.S. measures, chanting slogans against the blockade and demanding the restoration of free navigation in the Hormuz corridor. The demonstrations underscore the political risk for the Iranian regime, which must balance nationalist sentiment with economic pressures from restricted maritime trade. Analysts warn that the standoff could ripple through global markets, potentially inflating oil prices if shipping routes are further constrained. The situation also tests the resolve of allied nations, who must decide whether to support the U.S. posture or call for a diplomatic de‑escalation to safeguard the free flow of commerce through one of the world’s most strategic chokepoints.

The United Nations has issued a clear appeal urging all parties to respect and maintain safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The statement underscores the strategic importance of the narrow waterway for international shipping and calls for cooperation to prevent disruptions.

Southampton have moved just three points off automatic promotion after a 3-0 victory over Blackburn, coupled with Ipswich’s 2-0 defeat at Portsmouth. The hosts extended their unbeaten run to 18 games in all competitions with a comprehensive victory at St Mary’s, secured by first-half goals from Cyle Larin and Ryan Manning and a late strike from Cameron Archer. The Southampton manager, Tonda Eckert, made five changes to the team which beat Derby 2-1 on Saturday but there was no disruption to the relentless rhythm which has catapulted the club up the Championship table and earned an FA Cup semi-final spot. Saints made the breakthrough in the 24th minute when Kuryu Matsuki set Archer free down the left, and he squared the ball perfectly for Larin to slot home. Shea Charles then went close with a rampaging run and shot, before Manning’s low shot deflected in past Blackburn keeper Balazs Toth two minutes from half-time. Matsuki missed a glorious chance to add a third after brilliant work from Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Larin left him with the goal at his mercy, and substitute Leo Scienza went close at the near post before Blackburn finally threatened. Daniel Peretz beat away Yuki Ohashi’s shot before Ryoya Morishita struck the post on the rebound. Archer completed the scoring late on to secure Southampton’s seventh win in a row, moving them up to fourth with a home fixture against second-placed Ipswich to come, after they head to Wembley and face Manchester City in the FA Cup. “I think no matter who we put on at the moment, they’re all ready to perform. It’s quite an easy decision at the moment to pick a team, because they’re all ready to go,” Eckert said after the game. Ipswich missed the chance to tighten their grip on second place as they slipped to defeat at Fratton Park. Conor Shaughnessy and Colby Bishop claimed quickfire goals as Portsmouth boosted their survival hopes with a crucial victory.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning that a further escalation in the Iran war could lead to a global recession, spiralling inflation, and a sharp backlash in financial markets. The Washington-based fund cited the economic damage from the Middle East conflict as steadily rising, prompting it to cut its growth forecasts for 2026.In its half-yearly update, the IMF predicted that the UK would suffer the sharpest growth downgrade and joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year. Even if the fallout from soaring energy costs can be contained by the middle of 2026, the fund warned of a close call for a global recession under a worst-case 'severe scenario'.This severe scenario, involving a drawn-out war and persistently higher energy prices, would see the world face a global recession for only the fifth time since 1980. Oil prices jumped back above $100 (£74) a barrel on Monday amid choppy trading in global markets. The IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that despite a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and downside risks remain elevated.The IMF set out three possible scenarios for the war in its World Economic Outlook (WEO), including a central 'reference forecast' based on the assumption that disruption to the world economy from the war fades by mid-2026. This forecast predicts global growth would fall from 3.4% last year to 3.1% in 2026, a downgrade of 0.1 percentage points.Under the adverse scenario, with the global oil price remaining at $100 this year before falling back to $75 in 2027, growth would fall to 2.5% this year, and inflation would rise to 5.4%. In the severe scenario, with a lengthier, intensive war keeping the oil price above $110 into 2027, global growth would collapse to about 2%, a threshold widely seen as equivalent to a worldwide recession.The IMF urged countries to stage a coordinated response to the economic fallout from the war and called on central banks to remain vigilant. It also advised governments to focus on temporary and targeted measures to support businesses and households.

HSBC’s chief executive, Georges Elhedery, told Bloomberg Television at a conference in Hong Kong that the ongoing Iran war is undermining global economic confidence. He warned that the conflict’s duration could amplify price pressures on commodities such as oil, refined products, fertilisers and metals, extending the impact far beyond the Middle East. Brent crude, which had briefly risen above $100 per barrel, slipped 0.9% to $98.5 per barrel after a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports took effect. Negotiations between the United States and Iran are set to resume in Islamabad, but no agreement was reached in the previous talks. In London, the FTSE 100 edged up 22 points (0.21%) to 10,605, even as Imperial Brands led the losers, citing a “more uncertain geopolitical and macro environment.” The UK recruitment firm PageGroup warned that the Middle East conflict is creating an “increasingly uncertain outlook” for the rest of the year, with salaries lagging behind 2022‑2023 levels across the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. HSBC holds a 31% stake in Saudi Awwal Bank, making it one of the European banks most exposed to the region, which contributes roughly 4% of its pre‑tax profit according to JP Morgan analysts. Nevertheless, Elhedery noted that capital outflows from the Middle East have been “very benign” so far. Since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran on 28 February, some affluent Middle‑Eastern investors have started exploring relocation to financial hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong. HSBC chair Brendan Nelson stressed that a peace settlement is essential to restore global energy flows, warning that prolonged disruption would lift inflation and suppress growth. “The longer the disruption continues, the more the indirect effects from higher energy costs will lift inflation and depress growth,” he said at the HSBC Global Investment Summit. Manufacturers reliant on petroleum‑derived synthetic fabrics, such as sportswear maker Castore, reported cost increases of 10‑15% and warned that continued conflict could push those costs onto consumers. Co‑founder Tom Beahon described price volatility as “very difficult to plan,” with daily swings of up to 40%. Logistics are also strained: airlines have reduced flights and vessels remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, complicating product shipments. Castore hopes that a resolution in the coming weeks will limit the impact on customers. Virgin Atlantic chief executive Corneel Koster told the Financial Times that jet‑fuel prices have more than doubled since the war began, adding that “some of this disruption to global energy prices will be here to stay.” UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, speaking at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, called for coordinated economic action, stating that the Iran conflict must become “a line in the sand” for how the world handles crises and instability.

Energy prices in the United States have continued to surge, even after President Donald Trump's administration issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, a maritime law that restricts foreign-flagged vessels from transporting goods between US ports.The waiver, which came into effect on March 18, was intended to alleviate pressure on energy supplies by allowing more foreign vessels to transport goods domestically. However, experts say the impact on oil prices has been negligible, with oil prices rising 4 percent on the day amid a US blockade of Iranian ports.“It is estimated that it’s going to be about 3 cents on the East Coast and it might go up on the Gulf Coast, but these changes are so small that they’re overshadowed by the spikes in oil prices, and the oil prices keep going up,” said Usha Haley, a professor of management at Wichita State University.The Containerized Freight Index, a benchmark for shipping container costs, has jumped more than 10 percent over the last month and is up more than 35 percent from this time last year. The average price of gas in the US has also increased to $4.125 per gallon, up from $3.63 at this time last month.Despite the waiver, shippers have adapted their routes, with more than 34,000 ships diverting from the Strait of Hormuz over the past month. Major vessel insurers have also cancelled war risk coverage for ships travelling through the waterway, dissuading ship owners from going through the Gulf.Experts predict that fuel prices will only normalise once traffic through the strait returns to pre-war levels. The ongoing conflict and disruptions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to the sustained high energy prices.