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Sudan's power grid has collapsed, leaving many towns and cities without electricity. The crisis has been worsened by the ongoing war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, now in its fourth year. The country's reliance on imported fuel has been disrupted, driving up costs and further straining the economy.In Khartoum, residents like Husna Mohamed are struggling to cope with the daily burden of fetching water and managing household chores without electricity. Fuel prices have surged by over 40% in recent weeks, making it difficult for people to afford basic necessities. The Sudanese pound has also lost roughly 20% of its value against the US dollar.The economic impact is being felt across various sectors. Transport costs have risen, and food prices are increasing, with a 10-kilogramme bag of sugar rising from 28,000 to 35,000 Sudanese pounds in just one week. Merchants are hesitant to sell, waiting to see how prices will develop.Economist Mohamed al-Tayeb notes that Sudan's economy is especially vulnerable to energy disruption due to its heavy reliance on land transport and power-dependent production. The crisis is not only economic but also infrastructural, with informal and makeshift power poles causing frequent failures across the grid.Local solutions, such as solar panels and shared generators, are being implemented, but they remain partial and fragile. The crisis has exposed the limited margin for error in Sudanese households, which were already absorbing multiple shocks, including the war, currency collapse, and displacement.

Europe is projected to run out of jet fuel in about six weeks, according to the head of the International Energy Agency, raising the spectre of widespread flight cancellations.Fatih Birol told the Associated Press that without a rapid restoration of oil shipments from the Middle East, airlines could soon be forced to drop routes, warning that “some flights from city A to city B might be cancelled as a result of lack of jet fuel.”The shortage stems from the US‑Israel war on Iran, which has snarled global energy markets since the initial strikes in late February. In retaliation, Iran has effectively sealed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for Gulf oil exports.Although a two‑week ceasefire was recently brokered, negotiations to end the hostilities have stalled, leaving the supply disruption unresolved.Meanwhile, Brent crude futures are trading more than 30% above pre‑war levels, intensifying pressure on fuel prices and adding to political scrutiny in the United States.Jet‑fuel shipments that departed before the conflict have largely arrived in Europe, but the remaining reserves are rapidly being drawn down, leaving the continent vulnerable.Airports Council International Europe has warned EU energy and transport commissioners that the region could face fuel shortages within three weeks, echoing industry norms that typically maintain about six weeks of fuel on hand.Birol warned that the situation represents a “dire strait” with serious ramifications for the global economy, noting that prolonged disruption would exacerbate inflation and dampen growth worldwide.The anticipated fallout includes higher petrol, gas and electricity prices, with the impact expected to be uneven across different regions.Airlines are already scrapping marginally profitable routes, especially those without robust hedging strategies, and even carriers with hedged fuel costs may need to reconsider schedules.Despite the broader concerns, British low‑cost carrier easyJet asserted it has sufficient fuel visibility through mid‑May and does not anticipate supply‑related issues in the near term.

The UK is bracing for possible gaps on supermarket shelves this summer as the ongoing conflict in Iran threatens to disrupt carbon dioxide (CO2) supplies, a critical component in the food industry. CO2 is essential for the humane slaughter of livestock, packaging of fresh meats and produce, and production of fizzy drinks and beer.Government ministers are reportedly drawing up contingency plans for a 'reasonable worst-case scenario' if the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane, remains closed. This could lead to shortages of CO2, impacting supplies of chicken, pork, and fizzy drinks.The business secretary, Peter Kyle, has reassured the public that ministers are making contingency plans to deal with possible consequences of the Iran war. The government has invested £100m to reopen the mothballed Ensus bioethanol plant on Teesside to mitigate potential CO2 shortages.The CEO of Tesco, Ken Murphy, has expressed confidence in the company's ability to manage supply chains, stating that they have 'seen nothing at this point' in terms of problems within their supply chain caused by CO2 availability issues. However, the UK is one of Europe's largest users of CO2, and any disruption could have significant impacts on the food industry and beyond.

The prospect of a renewed U.S. oil blockade has sparked concerns across Havana’s tobacco fields, where the cigar industry remains a cultural and economic cornerstone. Analysts warn that restricting oil supplies could disrupt the energy‑intensive processes essential for curing, rolling, and transporting premium cigars, potentially undermining production volumes and export revenues. Cuba’s cigar sector accounts for a significant share of the island’s foreign‑exchange earnings, with premium brands commanding premium prices in markets worldwide. A sustained energy shortage would not only raise operational costs but could also force producers to scale back output or seek alternative, less efficient energy sources, eroding the competitive edge that Cuban cigars have long enjoyed. Beyond the immediate economic impact, the blockade could deepen existing tensions in U.S.-Cuba relations. The move may be interpreted as a strategic lever to pressure the Cuban government, yet it also risks alienating stakeholders in the global tobacco trade and could invite retaliatory measures. While the full extent of the blockade’s effect remains uncertain, experts stress that any disruption to the cigar supply chain would reverberate through related sectors—tourism, agriculture, and logistics—exacerbating the island’s broader fiscal challenges. Policymakers on both sides are therefore urged to weigh the economic costs against geopolitical objectives before implementing such a measure.

President Donald Trump declared that the war with Iran is "very close to over," even as Washington maintains a naval blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. In Washington, D.C., Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors convened for uncommon direct talks, seeking a cease‑fire while Israel pressed for Hezbollah’s disarmament. Trump also hinted at a possible second round of negotiations with Tehran, suggesting talks could resume in Pakistan within days. The United States, however, is set to let a temporary sanctions waiver on stranded Iranian oil expire, tightening economic pressure on Tehran. The International Committee of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies delivered its first shipment of medical supplies and humanitarian aid into Iran since hostilities began, offering a modest lifeline to civilians. Inside Tehran, minor explosions caused limited damage and injuries, underscoring ongoing instability. Iran estimates its war‑related losses at $270 billion and plans to seek reparations. On the diplomatic front, the United Nations' IAEA chief Rafael Grossi noted that the duration of any uranium‑enrichment moratorium would be a political decision, reflecting the delicate balance of future negotiations. In the United States, the Senate is poised to vote as early as Wednesday on a Democratic initiative to restrict the president’s war powers, signaling growing congressional scrutiny of the conflict. Former defence official David Sedney warned that the Hormuz blockade is backfiring, increasing pressure on Washington as global trade routes are disrupted and domestic support wanes. Meanwhile, CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper affirmed that the blockade of Iranian ports is fully operational and that U.S. forces retain maritime superiority in the region. President Trump publicly rebuked Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni for not joining U.S. actions against Iran, describing her stance as lacking courage. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that American forces will intercept Chinese tankers carrying Iranian oil through the Hormuz Strait, effectively cutting off Iran’s oil exports while allowing non‑Iranian cargo to pass. Israel has proposed a long‑term troop presence extending up to 8 km into southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is dismantled, and continues air strikes aimed at encircling the strategic town of Bint Jbeil. Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman highlighted a growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli priorities, noting Israel’s heightened concern over Iran’s ballistic‑missile program. In Lebanon, Israeli raids have resulted in multiple civilian casualties, with reports of villages being razed in a manner likened to Gaza. Hezbollah has rejected the ongoing Israel‑Lebanon talks, while public opinion remains split between hopes for peace and opposition to negotiations. The International Monetary Fund warned that any further escalation could push the global economy toward recession. It cut its 2026 growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa to 1.1 % from 3.9 %, citing disruptions to Gulf oil and gas exports. On the markets, stock indices rose while oil prices slipped, reflecting renewed optimism for a diplomatic resolution and the reopening of the Hormuz Strait.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a major energy crisis. The strait, located between Iran and Oman, is a critical passage for global oil shipments, making it a vital artery for the world's energy supplies.A disruption in this region could have significant implications for the global economy, potentially leading to higher oil prices and increased volatility in energy markets. The IMF's warning underscores the importance of maintaining stability in this critical region.

Cuba is on the brink of transforming its energy landscape with a bold plan to invest $8bn in renewable energy, which could reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and pave the way for energy independence from the US. The proposal, put forth by the Common Wealth thinktank's Transition Security Project (TSP), suggests that this investment could cover 93.4% of Cuba's electricity generation needs.The US has imposed a crippling energy blockade on Cuba, severely limiting the island nation's access to oil. Since January, Cuba has received only one shipment of oil, from Russia, and its national electric grid has collapsed, leading to repeated blackouts and widespread disruptions.The TSP analysis outlines four different scenarios for Cuba's transition to renewable energy, with costs ranging from $5bn to $19.2bn. The most ambitious proposal would see three-quarters of electricity generation provided by solar power, with wind, hydropower, and bioenergy making up the remainder.The report argues that electricity costs would decrease in every renewable investment scenario, with the cost per unit of energy falling from 14.3¢ per kWh in the baseline scenario to 6.5¢ with $8bn of investment. The transition would require a society-wide transformation, but Cuba has demonstrated its ability to adapt in the past, such as its rapid shift to agroecology and self-sufficiency in the 1990s.The question remains: who would pay for this transition? The report suggests that financing should be understood as "reparative climate finance", with Cubans able to pay back investments through savings on cheaper energy. The transformation would not only benefit Cuba but also set an important example of a rapid energy transition under conditions of external constraint.

The United States' recent move to impose a naval blockade on Iran is poised to intensify the ongoing global energy crisis. By restricting Iran's ability to export oil, the blockade could further tighten an already constrained supply chain, potentially pushing oil prices higher and increasing volatility in international markets. Analysts warn that the measure may have ripple effects beyond the Middle East, affecting nations that rely on Iranian crude to meet domestic demand. With global fuel inventories already low, any additional disruption could heighten inflationary pressures and strain economies still recovering from recent shocks. While the blockade aims to achieve strategic objectives, its broader economic implications underscore the delicate balance between geopolitical actions and energy security. Stakeholders across the energy sector are closely monitoring the situation, anticipating possible policy responses to mitigate the impact on consumers and industries worldwide.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has sharply cut its forecasts for global oil supply and demand growth, citing disruptions caused by the US-Israel war on Iran that are impacting oil flows and weighing on the global economy.According to the IEA's report, global oil demand is expected to fall by 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, a significant drop from the projected year-on-year rise of 640,000 bpd in its previous monthly report.The forecast comes after the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and IEA urged countries to avoid hoarding energy supplies and imposing export controls that could exacerbate the shock. IEA chief Fatih Birol appealed to all countries to let energy stocks flow to the markets, warning that demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist.The IEA report highlighted that the deepest cuts in oil consumption have come from the Middle East and Asia Pacific, particularly for naphtha, LPG, and jet fuel. A projected 1.5 million bpd drop in demand in the second quarter of this year would mark the deepest contraction since the COVID-19 pandemic.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also lowered its prediction for world oil demand in the second quarter, but kept its full-year outlook unchanged. The IEA noted that attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz have led to the largest oil supply disruption in history, with 10.1 million bpd lost in March.Iran's de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy shipments, sent gas and petrol prices skyrocketing around the world. The US blockade on Iranian ports has further clouded the outlook for global energy security and the supply of goods that rely on petroleum.The IEA warned that oil demand could plunge even further if the strait remains closed, and emphasized that resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing pressure on energy supplies, prices, and the global economy.Meanwhile, Russia has benefited from the disruptions, with its revenues from crude oil and refined products rising in March due to the surge in prices. Moscow's crude oil exports rose by 270,000 bpd last month to 4.6 million bpd, driven by higher seaborne shipments.