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The piece titled The war on Iran: Nobody won, everyone paid examines the aftermath of the recent hostilities involving Iran. It argues that the conflict failed to deliver a decisive victory for any side, while inflicting widespread losses that reverberated throughout the Middle East.By highlighting the shared burdens—ranging from disrupted trade routes to strained diplomatic ties—the analysis underscores how the war deepened regional instability rather than resolving underlying tensions.In sum, the article portrays the Iran war as a costly stalemate, reminding policymakers that the true price of conflict is borne by all parties involved.

Djibouti, a one‑million‑strong nation perched on the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait, is set to hold its presidential election on April 10. All signs point to incumbent Ismail Omar Guelleh securing a sixth term with little genuine opposition. The country’s strategic location—linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden—makes it a linchpin for global trade and a magnet for foreign military installations. The United States, France, China, Italy and Japan all maintain bases there, earning Djibouti the reputation of hosting the highest concentration of overseas military sites. Officially, Djibouti recognizes French and Arabic, while Somali and Afar are widely spoken among the two main ethnic groups, which together comprise roughly 95% of the population. Islam is practiced by about 94% of residents, and the Djiboutian franc remains the national currency. According to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, 243,471 citizens—about a quarter of the population—are registered to vote, up from roughly 215,000 in the 2021 poll. Historical turnout averages around 67%. IGAD’s eight‑nation bloc has dispatched 17 observers from Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda to monitor the process, with a post‑vote statement slated for April 12. Ismail Omar Guelleh, 78, leads the ruling People’s Rally for Progress. After parliament lifted the 75‑year age ceiling in November and abolished term limits back in 2010, Guelleh is now eligible for another term. Critics label his rule as authoritarian, yet they also acknowledge the relative stability he has maintained in a volatile region. Guelleh’s administration has turned Djibouti’s lack of natural resources into a revenue engine by signing infrastructure deals with China and leasing military facilities to Western powers. In 2017, Finance Minister Ilyas Dawaleh estimated that the bases generate roughly $125 million annually, with the United States contributing nearly half of that sum. The U.S. installation, Camp Lemonnier, remains the only permanent American base on the continent. The sole challenger, Mohamed Farah Samatar, runs under the Unified Democratic Centre after breaking away from the ruling party. His campaign slogan—“another Djibouti is possible”—has resonated only modestly, and observers such as Horn‑of‑Africa expert Sonia le Gouriellec describe the contest as a “token competition”. Human‑rights advocates echo this sentiment, calling the election a “masquerade” and a foregone conclusion. Key issues dominate the discourse. Democratic freedoms have eroded; opposition parties have boycotted elections since 2016, and Guelleh captured over 90% of the vote in 2021. The country ranks 168th out of 180 in the 2025 Reporters Without Borders press‑freedom index, and allegations of corruption and nepotism persist, including speculation that Guelleh’s stepson, Naguib Abdallah Kamil, is being groomed for succession. Economically, Djibouti’s reliance on Chinese financing is creating fiscal strain. By 2026 the nation owed China roughly $1.2 billion in loans, prompting the IMF to label its debt profile “in distress and unsustainable”. Massive infrastructure projects—most notably a railway to Ethiopia—have failed to curb poverty, with 73% of the youth unemployed. The country’s lifeline is its port system, which handles virtually all of Ethiopia’s maritime trade, amounting to about $2 billion in annual revenue. Ethiopia’s recent flirtation with a Somaliland port deal threatened Djibouti’s monopoly, though a Turkey‑mediated agreement in late 2024 redirected Ethiopia toward a “reliable and sustainable” sea corridor with Somalia. In sum, the upcoming election is less about a competitive political showdown and more about reaffirming a status quo that intertwines Djibouti’s geopolitical leverage, foreign‑military income, and mounting debt challenges.

The fragile peace between the US and Iran is heavily contingent upon Israel's actions, with growing international calls for restraint to prevent escalation in the region. As tensions simmer, the delicate balance of power in the Middle East hangs in the balance, with Israel's moves being closely watched by global powers. Any provocative actions by Israel could potentially derail the ceasefire, plunging the region into renewed conflict and instability. International observers stress the need for calm and measured responses from all parties involved to ensure a lasting peace.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made a significant statement regarding potential ceasefire negotiations with Iran. According to Netanyahu, a ceasefire with Iran will not include Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group based in Lebanon and a key ally of Iran. This declaration underscores the complexity of the Middle East peace landscape, where Iran's influence extends beyond its borders through various proxy groups, including Hezbollah. Netanyahu's stance suggests that Israel views Hezbollah as a distinct entity that will not be part of any agreement aimed at de-escalating tensions with Iran. The relationship between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah has been a focal point of Middle East conflict for years. Israel has been concerned about Iran's nuclear program and its support for militant groups across the region, viewing these as direct threats to its security. Netanyahu's comments come at a time when diplomatic efforts are underway to address the Iranian nuclear issue and regional instability. The Israeli Prime Minister's firm stance on Hezbollah's exclusion from any ceasefire agreement highlights the challenges in achieving a comprehensive peace that addresses the concerns of all parties involved.

The two‑child benefit cap, introduced in 2015 by Chancellor George Osborne as a fairness measure, has been widely criticised for penalising families rather than influencing birth rates. Eleven years on, evidence shows the policy did not reduce family size but instead increased hardship for the poorest households.Research estimates that the cap pushed 350,000 children into poverty and drove another 700,000 deeper into deprivation. The impact fell disproportionately on the most vulnerable universal‑credit claimants, with a notable over‑representation of Muslim and Jewish families. Affected children missed out on school uniforms, extracurricular activities, and even regular meals.On Monday, the government announced the cap’s removal – a move that analysts say could deliver the most significant reduction in child poverty seen in a single parliamentary term. Modelling suggests that by 2030 450,000 children could be lifted out of poverty, while roughly 480,000 families may see an annual boost of £4,100. Parents anticipate being able to avoid food banks, afford hot school meals, and prevent bullying linked to clothing.The reversal was not inevitable. Persistent campaigning by think‑tanks, charities, and a handful of rebellious Labour MPs – some of whom faced suspension for defying party whips – forced the issue onto the political agenda. Nevertheless, the editorial notes that an estimated four million children will remain in poverty without further systemic reforms, such as raising Universal Credit rates and increasing local housing allowances.Public opinion remains divided: a recent YouGov poll found that six in ten Britons previously supported keeping the cap, though support for removal rose when the policy was framed as giving every child a good start. The editorial warns that other parties, including Reform UK, have pledged to reinstate the limit, underscoring the need for Labour to consolidate this victory and push for broader anti‑poverty measures.

The ceasefire deal between Iran and the US has been hailed as a significant achievement for China, which has been actively working to promote de-escalation and an end to hostilities in the region. Beijing's powerbrokers are being credited with pushing Iran towards agreeing to the ceasefire, bolstering its status as a regional mediator.In China's tightly censored domestic media, articles basking in the glory of China being the grown-up in the room at a time of international crisis were allowed to circulate. China's role in the negotiations was confirmed by US President Donald Trump, who told the Agence France-Presse news agency that he believed China had got Iran to agree to a ceasefire.However, some analysts are sceptical about how influential China could actually have been in the late-night discussions. The deal is advantageous to Iran, and encouraging the regime to agree to it would have been like 'pushing an open door', according to one analyst. Nicholas Lyall, a senior researcher at Trends, a research and advisory firm in Abu Dhabi, said: 'In terms of whether China had to do much pushing of Iran for it to agree to the temporary ceasefire, and whether Iran was swayed by this reported Chinese effort, it's essential to clarify what Iran has actually agreed to.'Officially, China has not confirmed or denied reports that it played an active role in the Islamabad negotiations. At a press conference on Wednesday, the foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said only that China 'had been actively working to promote de-escalation and an end to all hostilities'. China's economic interests are also at stake, as the risk of a global recession and soaring fossil fuel prices poses a threat to the Chinese economy, which is heavily dependent on exports.Analysts are even more sceptical of the idea that China might act as the guarantor of any ceasefire agreement in the Middle East. Song Bo, a fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said: 'China doesn't have a direct stake with any of the parties in the Middle East. Acting as a guarantor for a ceasefire would be an extremely high-cost diplomatic undertaking, and I don't think China would commit to that easily.'

In a recent statement, Janet Vance warned that a ceasefire with Iran can only be realized if the parties engage in good‑faith talks. She emphasized that mutual trust and sincere negotiation are essential for any lasting pause in hostilities, highlighting the delicate nature of the diplomatic process.

Iran and the United States each declared a triumph after agreeing to a two‑week ceasefire that was announced just before President Donald Trump’s deadline to force Tehran’s surrender. The conflict, which began on 28 February, has already claimed 2,076 lives in U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran and has caused thousands more deaths across the region. The fighting has also shocked global energy markets, stranding oil tankers and pushing prices to unprecedented levels. Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would halt bombing Iran after receiving a “workable” 10‑point ceasefire proposal, adding that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to.” Iran, for its part, said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, even as some citizens denounced the government’s perceived capitulation. Both parties are set to resume Pakistan‑mediated talks in Islamabad on Friday, though analysts warn that earlier red lines may resurface. Key terms of the Tuesday agreement: the United States will suspend air strikes for two weeks, citing that it has already achieved its military objectives and is close to a “definitive agreement concerning long‑term peace.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, pledged to halt “defensive operations” and to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while also indicating willingness to fund reconstruction from fees collected on transiting ships. Domestic reaction in Iran remains volatile. University of Tehran professor Foad Izadi noted that the public’s pessimism stems from two prior escalations—June’s 12‑day war and the February 28 strikes—both of which occurred amid ongoing negotiations. Earlier demands: The United States had presented a 15‑point plan on 25 March, calling for a 30‑day ceasefire, immediate reopening of the Strait, Iran’s de‑commissioning of its nuclear facilities, a total ban on uranium enrichment, handover of nuclear stockpiles to the IAEA, cessation of support to regional proxies, strict limits on ballistic missiles, and a full lift of sanctions, among other items. Iran responded with a 10‑point proposal that emphasized a non‑aggression commitment from the United States, controlled passage through the Strait, acceptance of its enrichment programme, comprehensive sanctions relief, withdrawal of U.S. combat forces, compensation for war damages via shipping fees, and a binding UN Security Council resolution. Both sides have already made concessions. Iran moved from demanding a permanent ceasefire to accepting a two‑week pause, and it shifted from insisting on reparations to proposing reconstruction funding from Strait fees. The United States, meanwhile, has softened its demand for an “unconditional” Iranian surrender and has not reiterated its earlier insistence on dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities. One of the most contentious issues remains the status of Lebanon. While Pakistan’s prime minister said the ceasefire would extend to Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied any such inclusion, and Israel launched a major bombing campaign in Beirut shortly thereafter, killing hundreds. Looking ahead, analysts highlight that the United States is unlikely to concede on the complete withdrawal of its roughly 50,000 troops stationed across 19 Middle Eastern sites—a demand Tehran has placed on the table. The outcome of the upcoming talks will hinge on whether Washington can accommodate Tehran’s broader political and economic requests without compromising its strategic objectives.

Iran and the United States announced a two‑week ceasefire that will also guarantee safe navigation through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves.The pause comes as the conflict entered its 40th day, with hopes now fixed on a diplomatic breakthrough during talks scheduled to begin in Pakistan on Friday.President Donald Trump declared that the truce would be activated once Tehran fully reopened the waterway, linking the cessation of hostilities to the restoration of a critical global supply route.Celebrations erupted across Iran, and numerous world leaders publicly welcomed the development, describing it as a step toward broader regional stability.The fighting, which has drawn in virtually the entire Middle East, saw Iran claim to target U.S. assets in several Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, while Gulf nations accused Tehran of striking civilian infrastructure.Hezbollah’s March 2 attacks on Israel pulled Lebanon into the war, and although Israel has signaled support for the ceasefire, it warned that the agreement does not extend to Lebanon.Against this backdrop, Gulf and neighboring states have issued statements outlining their positions on the ceasefire:Saudi Arabia welcomed the truce, urging an immediate end to regional attacks and calling for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, emphasizing that the ceasefire should lead to a “comprehensive sustainable pacification.”Qatar described the ceasefire as an “initial step toward de‑escalation,” stressing the need for rapid implementation, full adherence by Iran, and the protection of maritime security and international trade under international law.United Arab Emirates diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash hailed the outcome as a victory for a war the UAE sought to avoid, claiming the nation now possesses greater leverage and capacity to shape regional affairs.Oman expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s mediation and called for intensified efforts to address the root causes of the conflict, aiming for a permanent end to hostilities.Iraq welcomed the ceasefire but urged the United States and Iran to launch “serious and sustainable dialogue” that tackles underlying disputes and rebuilds mutual trust.Egypt framed the truce as a crucial opportunity for negotiations, diplomacy, and dialogue, insisting that any lasting peace must respect freedom of navigation and consider the legitimate security concerns of Gulf states.Turkey supported the ceasefire and pledged backing for the upcoming Islamabad talks, emphasizing the importance of full ground‑level implementation and strict adherence by all parties.Sudan called the two‑week pause a “positive step toward de‑escalation,” highlighting its potential to foster diplomacy and regional stability.