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The Escalating US-Iran Standoff United States President Donald Trump has claimed a second round of negotiations with Iran will take place in Pakistan on Tuesday as mediators try to revive negotiations before the end of an ongoing yet fragile two-week ceasefire. The announcement on Sunday came alongside a sharp escalation in rhetoric. Trump warned that Iran must agree to a deal "one way or another – the nice way or the hard way" and threatened to target key infrastructure if negotiations fail. He also renewed his threat of striking "bridges and power plants", which experts said could amount to war crimes under international law. Iran, however, has so far denied it will participate in the talks, accusing the US of "armed piracy" after US forces struck and seized an Iran-linked tanker on Sunday, further heightening tensions between the longtime adversaries. US Position and Demands On Sunday, Trump announced that US negotiators would travel to the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Monday for talks aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran. In a social media post, the president did not say which officials would be sent to the talks. Last weekend's first round of talks, at which Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, ended without a deal. Trump accused Iran of violating their two-week ceasefire, which is due to expire on Wednesday, by opening fire on Saturday in the Strait of Hormuz. The US president threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran if it doesn't accept the terms of the deal being offered by the US. "We're offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. In a further escalation, Trump said an Iranian-flagged ship called the Touska was "stopped" by US forces in the Gulf of Oman "by blowing a hole in the engine room". He said it was trying to get past the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. US forces boarded the ship and took physical control of the vessel. Iran's Response and Position Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya military headquarters confirmed the US attack on the Iranian-flagged tanker and said it would "respond soon". Then, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Iranian forces had sent drones in the direction of US military ships. Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, told Al Jazeera that Iran's actions during talks with the US are strictly guided by national interests and security. When asked if Tehran intends to participate in the talks in Islamabad, he said, "Iran acts based on national interests." "We see the current negotiations as a continuation of the battlefield, and we see nothing other than the battlefield in this," he said. "If it yields achievements that sustain those of the battlefield, then the negotiation arena is also an opportunity for us … but not if the Americans intend to turn this into a field of excessive demands based on their bullying approach." Key Points of Friction Since the start of the war on February 28, a number of new sticking points have emerged – alongside old challenges: Strait of Hormuz Dispute A central dispute is over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route linking the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. One-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were shipped through the strait before the war began. Iran insists on sovereignty over the waterway, which lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman and does not fall into international waters, and stated that only "nonhostile" ships could pass. It has also floated the idea of levying tolls while Washington demands full freedom of navigation. After the war began, Iran in effect closed the strait by forbidding transits, attacking ships and reportedly laying sea mines. Shipping traffic has since dropped by 95 percent. A week ago, the US implemented a blockade of its own. Its Navy has been blocking Iranian ports to pressure Tehran to reopen the vital waterway, adding another obstacle to the talks. According to Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King's College London, Trump's stance on the strait has shifted during the conflict and remains unclear. "We've had Trump say that he would be open to jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, where both sides collect a toll for shipping," Geist Pinfold noted, calling this "completely different to the demands of the US on paper but also the demands of the US's regional allies like the Gulf states and Israel, … who would regard any deal that entrenches Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz … as a stab in the back". "This isn't just between the US and Iran. It's about the US having to keep its regional allies on side," Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera. Nuclear Enrichment Standoff Another core issue is Iran's nuclear programme, particularly its stock of enriched uranium. The US and Israel are pushing for zero uranium enrichment and have accused Iran of working towards building a nuclear weapon while providing no evidence for their claims. Iran has insisted its enrichment effort is for civilian purposes only. It is a signatory to the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In 2015, the US was a signatory to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under then-US President Barack Obama. In that agreement, Iran pledged to limit its uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent, which is substantially below weapons grade, and to comply with inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to insure it wasn't developing nuclear weapons. In return, international sanctions on Iran were lifted. However, in 2018, during his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA despite the IAEA saying Iran had complied with the agreement up to that point. In March 2025, Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of national intelligence, testified to Congress that the US "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon". A month later, the IAEA estimated that Iran had 440kg (970lb) of 60-percent enriched uranium. While that is also below weapons grade, it is a short jump to achieve the 90-percent purity needed for atomic weapons production. On Sunday, in strongly worded comments, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Trump had no justification to ⁠⁠"deprive" Iran of its nuclear ⁠⁠rights. Maryam Jamshidi, a law professor at the University of Colorado in Boulder, said Iran's position on enrichment is based on Article IV of the NPT, "which recognises that all state parties [to the treaty] have the inalienable right to research, develop and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes". "In demanding that Iran have no enrichment, the United States is denying Iran its rights under this treaty," she told Al Jazeera. "In insisting that its right to enrichment be preserved, Iran is expressing a reasonable desire to be treated the same as any other state under international law." Lebanon Conflict Complicates Talks Two days after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28, in which Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei was killed, the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon began firing rockets and drones into northern Israel, and Israel struck back, launching an invasion into southern Lebanon. Iran is adamant that its ceasefire with the US extends to Lebanon and is demanding Israel end its offensive against its ally Hezbollah and its invasion of Lebanon. After initially denying the two-week ceasefire included Lebanon, Israel accepted a 10-day truce starting on Thursday night after direct Israel-Lebanon talks. However, that ceasefire is also teetering on collapse amid renewed hostilities. On Monday, the Israeli military claimed that it struck a loaded launch system in the Kfarkela area of southern Lebanon overnight while Hezbollah claimed responsibility for multiple explosions that it said hit a convoy of eight Israeli armoured vehicles, also in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is Tehran's most powerful ally in the region and a central part of its "axis of resistance", a network of armed groups across the Middle East aligned with Iran against Israel. The network also includes Yemen's Houthis and a collection of armed groups in Iraq. Evolving US Demands Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran had always insisted negotiations be exclusively focused on Iran's nuclear programme. US demands, however, have extended beyond the nuclear file. Before the war, Washington and Israel demanded severe restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile programme. Iran has said its ability to maintain its missile capabilities is non-negotiable. On February 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran's refusal to discuss its missile programme was a "big problem". Yet, since the two-week ceasefire was announced on April 8 and the Pakistan-brokered negotiations began, the US has not made any mention of Iran's ballistic missiles, which have been a major feature in Iran's retaliation against US and Israeli forces. Regime Change and Proxy Support The US and Israel have also made no secret of their desire for a change in Iran's government. Asked two weeks before the war began if he wished for a toppling of the government in Tehran, Trump said: "Seems like that would be the best thing that could happen." After the killing of Khamenei and multiple other senior Iranian leaders, Trump claimed the US-Israel war had in effect brought about "regime change", claiming key leadership layers were "decimated". Experts, however, disputed Trump's assertions, saying the government was very much intact, if not stronger. Salar Mohandesi, a professor at Bowdoin College in Maine, argued that despite US claims, what is happening in Iran does not meet any serious definition of "regime change". "The fundamental structures of the Islamic Republic are intact, and the new leaders are regime loyalists who are arguably more hardline than their assassinated predecessors," he told Al Jazeera. Mohandesi said the war has arguably strengthened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), something that is an "acceleration of an existing" trend and does not necessarily amount to regime change, "certainly not in the way Trump means it". "Trump's declaration that he has succeeded in 'regime change' is just a rhetorical move to try to claim victory where none exists," he added. Proxy Group Support Three days before the war began during his State of the Union address to the US Congress, Trump accused Iran and "its murderous proxies" of spreading "nothing but terrorism and death and hate". The US and Israel have long demanded Iran stop supporting its nonstate allies – primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and a number of groups in Iraq. Tehran to date has refused to enter into any dialogue about limiting its support for these armed groups. But on Friday, Trump claimed Iran had agreed to almost all of the US demands, including support for its proxies. A statement by Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected that any such agreement was in place, saying: "The Americans talk excessively and create noise around the situation. Do not be misled!" Prospects for a Breakthrough On Sunday, Iran's top negotiator and speaker of its parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, acknowledged that while "conclusions" had been reached on some issues, "we are far from a final agreement." Analyst Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera that deep divisions between the US and Iran make a comprehensive deal unlikely in the near term despite some openings created by Trump's shifting positions. "The primary complication that would mean a deal is less likely but also one of the potential curveballs that would make a deal more likely is the Trump administration's equivocations regarding what its red lines actually are," he said. "At the moment, the gaps look insurmountable," Geist Pinfold added, noting that "the best-case scenario would be the extension of the ceasefire rather than the actual deal." The US-Iran talks face major structural obstacles despite growing speculation about a negotiated end to the current crisis, according to Bowdoin College's Mohandesi. "Donald Trump feels that he needs to somehow convert this disastrous defeat into some sort of win," he noted, adding: "It's unclear what that would look like at the negotiating table." On the Iranian side, Mohandesi sees little room for compromise on the core strategic issues. "Iran will absolutely not abandon its missile programme. It will not stop supporting its allies in the region, and it will almost certainly not agree to zero enrichment," he said. The academic questioned whether even a restoration of maritime traffic would constitute meaningful success for Washington. Even if Trump "were to somehow convince Iran to return the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war status quo, it's unclear how that would be a major win since the strait was open before he started the war", Mohandesi said.

In Yemen, the government's efforts to curb the devaluation of the Yemeni riyal have led to a stabilisation of the currency, but have also created a severe liquidity crunch. The Central Bank of Yemen, based in the southern city of Aden, has implemented measures to control currency speculation and provide traders with hard currency.Despite these efforts, cash shortages have worsened, with people in government-controlled cities such as Aden, Taiz, and Mukalla struggling to access Yemeni riyals. Many are unable to convert foreign currency, such as US dollars or Saudi riyals, into local cash, leading to a thriving black market for currency exchange.The cash shortage has paralysed businesses and left many Yemenis unable to access their savings or use their hard currency. Mohammed Omer, a small grocery shop owner in Mukalla, said he has spent hours trying to convert Saudi riyals into Yemeni riyals, but has been unable to do so due to the cash shortage.The Yemeni government has acknowledged the cash shortage and approved short-term measures to address the problem. However, the crisis has highlighted the country's ongoing economic struggles, which have been exacerbated by the war between the Saudi-backed government and the Iran-aligned Houthis.

Sanaa, Yemen – At 7 a.m., 14‑year‑old Qasim wakes, grabs a one‑metre‑by‑half‑metre white sack and heads out to collect plastic bottles, hoping to fill it by 11:30 a.m. A full sack can bring in up to 1,500 Yemeni riyal (≈ $3), which the family uses for daily meals. When Qasim returns home, he can briefly be a child again, playing football with neighbours. By evening, his 12‑year‑old brother Asem takes over the bottle‑collecting, selling the haul at night to cover dinner costs. For the siblings, school is a luxury they cannot afford. "I was in fourth grade in 2024, but I stopped because I needed to help my family," Qasim told Al Jazeera, wiping his cheeks. "Sitting in a classroom would not feed me," he added. The conflict that began in 2014 between Iran‑backed Houthis and the Saudi‑backed government has devastated Yemen’s education system. UNICEF estimates that 3.2 million school‑aged children are out of school, with another 1.5 million displaced children at risk of permanent dropout. Even though a cease‑fire was declared in April 2022, the war’s economic fallout persists. During the fourth Riyadh International Humanitarian Forum, Yemen’s Minister of Planning Waed Badhib said the war has cost the national economy **over $250 billion** and pushed unemployment to **35 %**. Parents like Qasim’s father, 48‑year‑old daily‑wage worker Abdu, no longer see education as a viable path. "Seeing a hungry child hurts more than seeing a child drop out," he said, noting that many university graduates now work as construction guards or porters. Experts warn that this short‑term coping strategy harms long‑term prospects. Mahmoud al‑Bukari, a Taiz academic, explained that forcing children into work “creates further social and economic problems for both individuals and society.” Sociology professor Afrah al‑Humaiqani stressed that denying education violates children’s rights and breeds anxiety, undermining future economic development. Infrastructure damage compounds the crisis: more than 2,400 schools are destroyed, partially damaged, or repurposed (Save the Children). Remaining classrooms are overcrowded, and teachers—many unpaid for years—are demotivated, leading to a decline in teaching quality. Fatima Saleh, a teacher in Sanaa, described educators as the "engine" of learning. "When that engine falters, students lose interest and drop out," she said, noting that unpaid salaries force many teachers to quit or seek other work. Journalist Mohammed Abdu al‑Samei argues that the cease‑fire alone cannot revive education without addressing the underlying economic collapse. International aid has also dwindled, leaving a critical funding gap for programs that once kept children in school. For Qasim, returning to a classroom is no longer realistic. He now aims to acquire a trade—painting, carpentry, or welding—to earn a living, saying, "I will not return to the classroom, but I will learn a skill that helps my family."

Israel has appointed Michael Lotem as its first ambassador to Somaliland, marking the latest milestone after the country officially recognized the self‑declared state in December 2025. Lotem, who previously served as Israel’s ambassador to Kenya, was announced by Israel’s public broadcaster on Wednesday. Somaliland’s president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, hailed the appointment in a joint parliamentary session, declaring Israel a “reliable partner” and prompting applause from lawmakers. In stark contrast, Somalia’s foreign ministry condemned the decision, labeling it a “direct breach” of Somali sovereignty and unity. The condemnation echoed broader disapproval from the UN Security Council, the African Union, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the European Union, all of which have criticized Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. Since the December announcement, diplomatic activity has accelerated. Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar visited Hargeisa in January, and Somaliland’s water ministry sent a delegation to Israel for training in water‑management techniques. President Abdullahi told Reuters in February that a trade agreement with Israel is expected soon. Israel has also granted diplomatic approval to Mohamed Hagi, a presidential adviser instrumental in securing recognition, designating him as Somaliland’s first ambassador to Israel. Somali officials warn that the deepening ties could destabilise the region. President of Somalia earlier this year called Israel’s outreach the “gravest attack” on Somali sovereignty and suggested Israel might seek to establish a military base to launch operations against Yemen. Geographically, Somaliland sits across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen, where the Iran‑backed Houthi movement controls the northwest and remains hostile to Israel. The Houthis have publicly stated that any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be a legitimate target. In March, Somaliland’s minister of the presidency, Khadar Hussein Abdi, told Bloomberg that the country aims for a “strategic relationship” with Israel that includes security cooperation. He did not rule out the possibility of an Israeli military base, noting that such a decision “will be analysed at some point.” Somalia’s state minister for foreign affairs, Ali Omar, reiterated to Al Jazeera that Somalia does not want its territory drawn into external confrontations that could further destabilise an already sensitive region. The appointment of an Israeli ambassador therefore not only solidifies bilateral ties but also introduces new strategic calculations for regional actors, potentially reshaping security dynamics in the Horn of Africa and the broader Red Sea corridor.

The 2027 Asian Cup draw in Saudi Arabia has been rescheduled for May 9 in Riyadh, owing to the US-Israel war on Iran that has impacted regional sporting events. The draw was initially set for last Saturday. The Asian Football Confederation (AFC) announced the postponement to ensure full participation of all key stakeholders and member associations. The event will take place at the historic At-Turaif District in Diriyah. Several sporting events in the region have been postponed or cancelled due to the war, which began on February 28. Saudi Arabia will host the 24-team, quadrennial continental championship from January 7 to February 5, 2027. With 23 of the 24 teams already confirmed, the draw will divide the qualified nations into six groups of four. The final qualification spot will be decided on June 4 in a playoff between Lebanon and Yemen. Defending champions Qatar, along with four-time winners Japan and fellow World Cup qualifiers South Korea, Iran, Jordan, Australia, and Uzbekistan, have already secured their places in the finals.

President Donald Trump has signaled that the U.S. Navy will enforce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, targeting any vessel that has paid a toll to Iran. The announcement sent oil futures soaring past $100 per barrel on Monday, reviving fears of a deeper global energy crisis. U.S. Central Command later clarified that the operation would focus on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, a narrower scope than the initial threat to shut the entire strait. Nonetheless, experts say the move would still choke a critical chokepoint in world oil supply. "Anything that removes oil from the market pushes prices higher, which in turn lifts gasoline costs," explained Trita Parsi, co‑founder of the Quincy Institute. He warned that if Iran’s allies, notably the Houthis in Yemen, retaliate by closing the Bab al‑Mandeb strait, oil could surge above $150 a barrel. Bab al‑Mandeb serves as an alternative route for Gulf oil to reach the Red Sea and Indian Ocean. Its closure would compound the disruption already caused by the Hormuz threat. Since the start of the U.S.–Israeli conflict on February 28, Iran has limited traffic through Hormuz, allowing only a handful of vetted ships. Windward estimates that about 3,200 vessels were stranded west of the strait as of Saturday. Former chief economist Anas Alhajji of NGP Energy Capital Management expects non‑Iranian carriers to avoid the strait regardless of U.S. assurances, citing rising insurance premiums and the risk of Iranian retaliation. "The Trump blockade of Iranian ports is effectively a blockade of the Hormuz Strait," he told Al Jazeera. The ripple effects extend beyond fuel. Higher oil and gas prices will lift the cost of chemicals, fertilizers and plastics feedstocks, analysts say. Cameron Johnson, senior partner at Tidalwave Solutions, predicts a rapid increase in raw‑material prices if the blockade persists into late April or early May. "The wild card is the timeframe," Johnson noted. "If it’s a short‑term negotiating tactic, the market may absorb it, but a prolonged blockade will spike global commodity prices." Supply‑chain experts warn of broader repercussions. Deborah Elms of the Hinrich Foundation highlighted that rising fabric costs and packaging shortages could strain food production and consumer goods later in the year. Industry observer Chad Norville of Rigzone said the mere threat erodes confidence in the strait’s stability, likely driving up insurance costs and reducing daily trade volumes. In sum, a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports would mark a stark reversal of recent policy, which had briefly eased sanctions to alleviate the energy crunch. The potential escalation underscores how geopolitical moves can quickly translate into higher energy bills and broader economic strain worldwide.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel and Iran has significantly altered the dynamics of the nuclear programme negotiations. Former US envoys who dealt with Iran have stated that the US-Israeli attack on Iran and Tehran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have given Iran new tools and resolve to resist pressure to shutter its nuclear programme.Two senior negotiators for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Obama-era agreement to limit Iran's nuclear uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, said the Trump administration's war had handed Iran a coveted weapon by demonstrating its ability to cut off the Strait of Hormuz, an economic chokehold that one negotiator said would help Iran 'balance the asymmetry of power' with the US.Alan Eyre, a former diplomat who helped negotiate the JCPOA, noted that 'this administration, to say it more politely, cannot unsoil the bed. There's no way to get back to the status quo ante before this war started.'In 2018, Donald Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA, which barred Tehran from enriching its uranium to weapons-grade. Trump called the deal 'one of the worst and most one-sided transactions' the US had ever entered into.However, after a strategy of high pressure – first through returning sanctions and then, after Trump's return to power in 2025, a war that was meant to destroy Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities – the current US administration has found itself in more complex negotiations than before its campaign of economic and military strikes.Robert Malley, a Yale lecturer who was former special envoy to Iran under Joe Biden and a lead negotiator on the JCPOA, said: 'The strait of Hormuz wasn't an issue before the US decided to strike. You have all the issues inherited from the past, but you just added a few, because the US has handed Iran a tool that it always had, but it never thought of using, or never felt it could.'The chances for a comprehensive agreement addressing all of the US and Iran's grievances appear slim. While the Obama administration sought to negotiate exclusively on Iran's nuclear programme in the lead-up to the 2015 agreement, the Trump administration has sought a broader deal limiting Iran's ballistic missiles programme and its support for regional proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

In the war-torn city of Taiz, Yemen, a 14-year-old boy named Ibrahim was killed by a sniper while walking to school with his younger siblings. The incident has sent shockwaves through the community, with locals blaming the Houthi rebels for the tragedy.Ibrahim's mother, Umm Ibrahim, expressed her grief, asking, 'Why did they kill my child, my source of strength?' She had already lost her husband nearly a decade ago and relied heavily on Ibrahim as they struggled to survive in the economically deprived city.The Houthi rebels have been besieging Taiz for 11 years, and the city lies on the front line of the war between the Houthis and the Yemeni government. A 2025 UN report found that 66% of sniper killings in Yemen took place in Taiz, with 21 deaths, including nine children.The killing has sparked an outpouring of anger in Taiz, with a mass turnout for Ibrahim's funeral and protest vigils organized by local schools. The government-run Education Office condemned the killing, calling it a 'cowardly terrorist' act.Najib al-Kamali, head of the Alef Observatory for the Protection of Education and Children's Rights, stated, 'Targeting a child going through their educational journey is an act that goes beyond a violation to the level of a symbolic assassination of hope within a society.'

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced on Wednesday that the United States had achieved a "decisive" military victory over Iran, claiming the Iranian missile programme has been "functionally destroyed." Speaking alongside General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Hegseth described the operation—codenamed Operation Epic Fury—as a "historic and overwhelming" triumph that met every objective, including the dismantling of Iran’s navy, air‑defence systems and missile‑production capability. The declaration came a day after President Donald Trump stepped back from a threatened full‑scale assault on Iran, just two hours before a self‑imposed deadline for Tehran to reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. The resulting cease‑fire agreement stipulates that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon and that the United States will monitor the country’s enriched uranium stockpiles. While Hegseth emphasized that "they can still shoot here and there, but that would be very unwise," he also warned that US forces will remain in the region to ensure compliance with the two‑week cease‑fire and to oversee the safe transit of vessels through the strategic waterway. Iran’s response was equally emphatic. The Supreme National Security Council, cited by IRNA, congratulated the Iranian people on a "victory" and urged perseverance until the details of that victory are finalized. The council highlighted Iran’s alliances with the so‑called "axis of resistance" in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and occupied Palestine, claiming the coalition has delivered blows to the enemy over the past 40 days. At the same briefing, General Caine confirmed that US military objectives in Iran have been met, but framed the cease‑fire as a "pause" rather than a permanent end to hostilities, noting that forces remain ready to resume combat if necessary. In parallel diplomatic developments, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday or Friday, contingent on a cease‑fire framework being reached ahead of a scheduled US‑Iran meeting in Pakistan. The closure of the strait has previously disrupted global oil and gas markets, making its reopening a critical economic signal. Trita Parsi, vice‑president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that President Trump needed an exit from a war he described as "an absolute disaster" and that the next two weeks are "crucial" for any genuine diplomatic opening, though he cautioned that the situation is not yet resolved. Analysts note that the cease‑fire’s success will hinge on Iran’s willingness to allow unfettered navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and on US verification of Iran’s uranium holdings. The coming fortnight will test whether the declared victory translates into lasting stability in a volatile region.