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HSBC’s chief executive, Georges Elhedery, told Bloomberg Television at a conference in Hong Kong that the ongoing Iran war is undermining global economic confidence. He warned that the conflict’s duration could amplify price pressures on commodities such as oil, refined products, fertilisers and metals, extending the impact far beyond the Middle East. Brent crude, which had briefly risen above $100 per barrel, slipped 0.9% to $98.5 per barrel after a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports took effect. Negotiations between the United States and Iran are set to resume in Islamabad, but no agreement was reached in the previous talks. In London, the FTSE 100 edged up 22 points (0.21%) to 10,605, even as Imperial Brands led the losers, citing a “more uncertain geopolitical and macro environment.” The UK recruitment firm PageGroup warned that the Middle East conflict is creating an “increasingly uncertain outlook” for the rest of the year, with salaries lagging behind 2022‑2023 levels across the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. HSBC holds a 31% stake in Saudi Awwal Bank, making it one of the European banks most exposed to the region, which contributes roughly 4% of its pre‑tax profit according to JP Morgan analysts. Nevertheless, Elhedery noted that capital outflows from the Middle East have been “very benign” so far. Since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran on 28 February, some affluent Middle‑Eastern investors have started exploring relocation to financial hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong. HSBC chair Brendan Nelson stressed that a peace settlement is essential to restore global energy flows, warning that prolonged disruption would lift inflation and suppress growth. “The longer the disruption continues, the more the indirect effects from higher energy costs will lift inflation and depress growth,” he said at the HSBC Global Investment Summit. Manufacturers reliant on petroleum‑derived synthetic fabrics, such as sportswear maker Castore, reported cost increases of 10‑15% and warned that continued conflict could push those costs onto consumers. Co‑founder Tom Beahon described price volatility as “very difficult to plan,” with daily swings of up to 40%. Logistics are also strained: airlines have reduced flights and vessels remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, complicating product shipments. Castore hopes that a resolution in the coming weeks will limit the impact on customers. Virgin Atlantic chief executive Corneel Koster told the Financial Times that jet‑fuel prices have more than doubled since the war began, adding that “some of this disruption to global energy prices will be here to stay.” UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, speaking at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, called for coordinated economic action, stating that the Iran conflict must become “a line in the sand” for how the world handles crises and instability.

The ongoing global finance talks between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) have taken a contentious turn. Governments are being urged not to mention climate change, despite its growing impacts and the pressing need for climate finance.The climate crisis has significant implications for developing countries, which are already paying billions to repair damage from droughts, floods, and storms. The World Bank Group aims to devote 35% of its funding to climate-related activities, but US pressure may hinder these efforts.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has demanded the removal of some climate finance targets from the World Bank's aims, insisting on an 'all-of-the-above approach to energy' that includes financing for gas, oil, and coal. This move has sparked alarm among other countries, including large developed economies.Experts warn that sidelining climate change discussions would be disastrous for the developing world. Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa thinktank, described the situation as 'beyond absurd', emphasizing that fossil fuels and the climate emergency are inextricably linked.The World Bank is the biggest single source of climate funding, and many donor countries channel their climate finance largely through the multilateral development banks. At the Cop29 UN climate summit in Azerbaijan in 2024, countries agreed that at least $1.3tn a year should flow to the developing world by 2035 to help countries cut greenhouse gas emissions and cope with the impacts of extreme weather.Lord Stern, a former World Bank chief economist, suggested that much could still be achieved without formally labelling projects as climate-related, emphasizing that investing in low-carbon infrastructure and energy systems is crucial for sustainable development.

The economic consequences of an Iran war could have devastating effects on global poverty, with 32 million people at risk of being pushed into poverty worldwide. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) warns that developing countries will bear the brunt of this impact. In a report released amid concerns over a fragile ceasefire, the UNDP highlights a 'triple shock' affecting energy, food, and economic growth. This conflict is reversing international development gains, with uneven regional impacts expected. Alexander De Croo, UNDP administrator and former Belgian prime minister, emphasizes that even if the war ends, its impact will persist, especially in poorer countries where people may be pushed back into poverty. He notes that those who had previously escaped poverty are now at risk of falling back into it. The report outlines three scenarios for the war's impact. In the worst-case scenario, involving six weeks of major disruption to oil and gas production and eight months of higher costs, 32.5 million people globally could fall into poverty. The UNDP uses the upper-middle-income poverty line, an international standard defined as income below $8.30 per person per day, calculated by the World Bank. To mitigate these effects, the UNDP suggests targeted and temporary cash transfers to protect vulnerable households in developing nations, estimating a cost of about $6 billion to neutralize the shocks for those falling below the poverty line. The agency also recommends interventions like temporary subsidies or vouchers for essential services. The news comes as Western governments face criticism for cutting aid spending amid economic pressures and increased defense spending. The UNDP and other international agencies stress the importance of maintaining or increasing development aid to support countries hardest hit by the economic fallout.

The collapse of talks between the US and Iran has sent shockwaves through global markets, fuelling fears of a prolonged energy crisis and rising inflation. The failure to reach a peace deal has left large numbers of oil tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf, with oil prices fluctuating wildly in response to the uncertainty.US Vice-President JD Vance has blamed the collapse of the talks on Tehran's refusal to abandon its nuclear weapons programme, while Iranian sources have hit back at what they describe as 'excessive' demands from Washington. The stalemate has raised concerns about the long-term impact on the global economy, with governments and central banks warning of higher inflation and interest rates.Mohamed El-Erian, an adviser to Allianz, has cautioned that uncertainty will continue to dominate assessments of the financial impact from the conflict. 'Absent a swift resumption of negotiations, the immediate reaction of financial markets when they open for the trading week will be to push oil prices higher and borrowing costs higher,' he said.The International Monetary Fund and World Bank's spring meetings in Washington will focus on the war's impact on the global economy, with the IMF's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, indicating that the fund will present three scenarios predicting lower economic growth and higher inflation. The IMF is also expected to highlight the impact on vulnerable economies.In the short term, oil prices have ended the week lower, with Brent crude at $94.26 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude at $95.63 a barrel. However, global stock markets have rebounded after a temporary ceasefire was announced, with the S&P; 500 close to its level before the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began.

The world's finance ministers and central bank governors are gathering in Washington for the half-yearly meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, with the global economy in a perilous spot. The US-Israeli war on Iran, coming soon after the Covid pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has triggered significant economic turbulence.Even if a durable peace deal in the Middle East can be reached, there will still be permanent economic scars. The conflict has caused damage to infrastructure, heaping further pressure on already struggling households. This is the biggest energy shock of the modern age, with oil and gas prices surging, inflation rising, and borrowing costs increasing.The IMF has said it will cut its growth forecasts for 2026 when it publishes its flagship world economic outlook. In every scenario, growth is slower and inflation higher. Households worldwide will feel the pain, with the world's poorest bearing the brunt.The fund's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, has urged officials to work together, warning that "go-it-alone actions" may have appeal but would ultimately make matters worse. The IMF cautions that any energy support should be targeted and temporary to limit the costs of blanket support and avoid stoking inequality.For central banks, the fund urges them to remain vigilant, with financial markets expecting interest rates to be kept on hold or raised to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. The economic problems are interlinked with political instability, making it a challenging situation for governments worldwide.

The International Monetary Fund has cautioned that the US‑Israel war on Iran could ignite a new wave of global inflation, jeopardising the outlook for world growth even if the current cease‑fire endures. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva announced on Thursday that the Fund will lower its growth projection for the global economy at next week’s IMF‑World Bank Spring Meetings, stating that the conflict has turned a potential upgrade into a growth downgrade. Earlier this year the IMF had lifted its forecast to 3.3 % growth for the 191‑member economies. That optimism evaporated after the war erupted on 28 February, driving up oil and natural‑gas prices, damaging energy infrastructure such as refineries and tanker terminals, and disrupting fertilizer shipments essential for global agriculture. Georgieva warned that the conflict is eroding business and consumer confidence and urged member nations to “get your house in order” as heightened defence spending adds further strain to the world economy. She also expressed confidence that the IMF will secure U.S. congressional approval this year for a 50 % increase in quota‑based lending resources, unlocking more of its roughly $1 trillion lending capacity. The United States, the Fund’s largest shareholder, would thereby provide crucial financial reassurance amid uncertain future developments. In a newly released report, the IMF estimated that countries directly involved in armed conflict typically see output fall by about 3 % at the outset, accumulating to roughly 7 % losses over five years. However, the study noted that economies like the United States may avoid severe economic damage because the fighting does not physically affect their own territory. Central banks are also on alert. Georgieva emphasized that “the central bank cannot afford to let inflation spiral out of control,” a statement that precedes the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two‑day policy meeting scheduled for 28–29 April, where interest‑rate decisions will be made amid political pressure from President Trump to lower rates. Other monetary authorities, including the Bank of Mexico, warned that the Middle‑East turmoil could push inflation higher in Latin America’s second‑largest economy, underscoring the broader spill‑over risks of the conflict.

Iran launched a new barrage of missiles at Israel following President Donald Trump’s televised claim that Washington had "destroyed the Iranian military" and was on the brink of completing its war objectives. Trump’s address, delivered hours after he asserted that Tehran had requested a ceasefire—a claim Tehran promptly denied—also featured a pledge to "finish the job" and a statement that the core strategic goals of the United States were "nearing completion." Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized that Iran holds no hostility toward the peoples of the United States, Europe or neighboring states, while urging the American public to question the motives behind the continued conflict. In Tehran, the war has intensified: US‑Israeli air campaigns continue to cause casualties and infrastructure damage, and Iranian forces persist with missile and drone counter‑attacks. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that, despite receiving messages from Washington, "trust remains at zero" for any negotiation. Senior political figure Kamal Kharazi, a former foreign minister, was seriously wounded when a strike hit his home in Tehran, killing his wife. Kharazi had been involved in back‑channel talks through Pakistan aimed at reviving negotiations. In the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates reported intercepting incoming Iranian missiles and drones, and a tanker off Doha sustained damage from a projectile, though no casualties were reported. President Trump publicly thanked Gulf allies, pledging that the United States would not allow them to be harmed. Within the United States, analysts such as Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute noted that Trump’s speech offered little new information, essentially summarising recent tweets and suggesting a lack of a clear operational plan. Israel’s military confirmed that its air‑defence systems were actively intercepting Iranian missiles, but the attack wounded 14 civilians, including an 11‑year‑old girl, near Tel Aviv. Israeli officials said the timeline outlined by Trump aligns with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assessment of the campaign. Regional spill‑over continued: an Israeli strike on Beirut killed a senior Hezbollah commander and at least seven civilians, while an air strike on Iraq’s Anbar province killed seven fighters and injured 13 at a military healthcare clinic. On the economic front, the World Bank expressed "extreme concern" about the conflict’s impact on inflation, employment and food security, and is consulting member states on emergency measures. Despite the turmoil, global equity markets rallied and oil prices fell after Trump’s optimistic remarks, indicating short‑term investor relief.

A virtual gathering of over 40 countries will set the agenda for a global military planning meeting next week, focusing on clearing sea mines and rescuing vessels immobilised in the Strait of Hormuz.UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper opened the summit by condemning what she described as “Iranian recklessness” that endangers global economic security and threatens the flow of vital energy supplies.The discussions are proceeding without direct US involvement; instead, the UK, France, Germany, Australia and several Gulf states are exploring practical steps to restore access to the strategic waterway.President Donald Trump has urged nations that depend on the strait to “build up some delayed courage” and “just grab it,” a comment that has drawn criticism from UK officials.The strait transports 10‑25% of the world’s oil and gas. Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned that reopening the lane “will not be easy,” given the scale of the disruption.Cooper outlined a multi‑pronged approach: diplomatic and economic pressure, reassurance for industry, insurers and energy markets, and coordinated actions to guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers.She cited more than 25 Iranian attacks on vessels, estimating around 20,000 seafarers on roughly 2,000 ships are currently stranded.Highlighting the broader stakes, Cooper referenced World Bank projections that a prolonged blockage could push 9 million people into food insecurity and trigger unsustainable spikes in oil and food prices worldwide.At a follow‑up session scheduled for Tuesday, military planners will consider how to marshal collective defensive capabilities, including the removal of mines that Tehran may have laid to sink ships.The meeting will be hosted by Britain’s Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood, London, with many international leaders joining virtually.Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch warned President Trump not to abandon “a mess he’s made” in the Middle East, echoing former US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s dictum, “if you break it, you own it.”Reform UK’s Nigel Farage said he was not “angry” with Trump for entering the conflict but found the president’s press briefings “difficult to interpret.”Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey urged Prime Minister Starmer to “step up” plans and present a clear alternative for reopening the oil‑ and gas‑laden shipping route.

A devastating explosion at a military base in Burundi's economic capital, Bujumbura, has resulted in at least 13 civilian fatalities and 57 injuries. The blast, caused by an electrical short circuit, occurred at the main ammunition depot of the Burundi National Defence Force (FDNB) in Musaga, a densely populated area.The army reported that houses and private vehicles were damaged in various neighborhoods, while military equipment and facilities were destroyed or burned. Three soldiers were among those wounded, but the army did not specify if any soldiers had been killed.The explosion occurred in a densely populated area adjoining the Higher Institute for Military Cadres (ISCAM), where aspiring army officers are trained and housed. Firefighting efforts were initially slowed by a water shortage, exacerbating the damage.Burundi, ranked by the World Bank as the world's poorest country by GDP per capita in 2023, has faced years of deep economic crises, including a severe fuel shortage. President Evariste Ndayishimiye expressed his sympathy to the victims, while authorities urged citizens to report unexploded munitions.