Global Economy Faces Biggest Oil Shock in Decades as US-Israeli War on Iran Escalates

The world's finance ministers and central bank governors are gathering in Washington for the half-yearly meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, with the global economy in a perilous spot. The US-Israeli war on Iran, coming soon after the Covid pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has triggered significant economic turbulence.

Even if a durable peace deal in the Middle East can be reached, there will still be permanent economic scars. The conflict has caused damage to infrastructure, heaping further pressure on already struggling households. This is the biggest energy shock of the modern age, with oil and gas prices surging, inflation rising, and borrowing costs increasing.

The IMF has said it will cut its growth forecasts for 2026 when it publishes its flagship world economic outlook. In every scenario, growth is slower and inflation higher. Households worldwide will feel the pain, with the world's poorest bearing the brunt.

The fund's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, has urged officials to work together, warning that "go-it-alone actions" may have appeal but would ultimately make matters worse. The IMF cautions that any energy support should be targeted and temporary to limit the costs of blanket support and avoid stoking inequality.

For central banks, the fund urges them to remain vigilant, with financial markets expecting interest rates to be kept on hold or raised to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. The economic problems are interlinked with political instability, making it a challenging situation for governments worldwide.