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Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.

When billionaire hedge‑fund manager Chris Rokos announced a £190 million contribution to the University of Cambridge, the move instantly became the largest single donation to any UK university in modern history. The funds will establish a new “school of government” aimed at bridging policy, science and emerging technologies. Rokos, a 55‑year‑old Oxford graduate, has amassed an estimated £2.6 billion fortune, primarily through his firm Rokos Capital Management (RCM), which he founded in 2015 after a high‑profile stint at Brevan Howard. RCM now oversees **over £22 billion** in assets, employs roughly 350 staff, and operates from offices in London, New York, Singapore and Abu Dhabi. In the most recent fiscal year ending March, Rokos paid himself nearly £500 million, according to Companies House filings, reflecting the firm’s strong performance amid volatile markets. Beyond finance, Rokos has kept a remarkably low public profile. He famously declined to provide a photograph when launching a £500 million fund in 2007, and he has avoided media attention despite owning one of England’s most expensive private residences. The £175 million refurbishment of the Grade I‑listed Tottenham House in Wiltshire – featuring a tennis pavilion, private cinema, basement squash court and a proposed “subterranean family link” to a pool house – has drawn local council scrutiny but stands as a tangible testament to his wealth. Rokos’s career trajectory began in banking at UBS and Goldman Sachs, moving to Credit Suisse where he was recruited by Alan Howard. He later joined the founding team of Brevan Howard in 2002, generating roughly $4 billion (≈£3 billion) in investor profits and about £600 million for himself before departing in 2012. His philanthropic philosophy emphasizes diversity of thought. In a video released by Cambridge, Rokos warned that a school populated only by “centrist, socially liberal” voices would be a failure, insisting on a broad spectrum of intellectual viewpoints. Earlier this year, RCM’s exploratory talks to bring former UK business secretary Peter Mandelson onto its advisory board collapsed after revelations about Mandelson’s connections to the late Jeffrey Epstein. Rokos also ranks among the UK’s biggest taxpayers and maintains a family office in Mayfair. A lingering legal dispute over a five‑year non‑compete clause with a former employer was settled out of court, clearing the way for his current venture. Overall, the record‑breaking Cambridge donation not only reshapes the university’s academic landscape but also underscores how hedge‑fund wealth is increasingly channeled into high‑impact philanthropy, blurring the lines between finance, education and public policy.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, specifically the US-Israel war on Iran, has sent shockwaves through the global economy, with the Bank of England predicting that over 1.3 million more UK households could face increased mortgage payments. Financial markets have reacted swiftly, with banks pulling around 1,500 mortgage products and raising interest rates on their remaining 7,000 home loan products in recent weeks, according to the Bank's financial policy committee (FPC). The FPC warns that approximately 5.2 million borrowers, or roughly 58% of borrowers across the country, could face higher mortgage payments by the end of 2028, up from 3.9 million before the conflict began. The data provider Moneyfacts reported that the average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate has risen to 5.84%, up from 4.83% at the start of March. Caitlyn Eastell, a personal finance analyst at Moneyfacts, noted that the impact on borrowers has been almost immediate, with borrowing costs sharply rising. The FPC emphasized that a prolonged war increases the possibility of large, frequent and possibly overlapping shocks that could put global financial stability at risk. The UK's economic outlook has deteriorated, increasing pressure on households and businesses, with the FPC adding that a prolonged conflict could amplify risks that were already present before the conflict began. The Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, cautioned that markets may be getting ahead of themselves by pricing in interest rate hikes in response to the Iran war, stating that the Bank's remit is to cause the least damage to the economy and jobs.

President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing a request for Arab countries to fund the U.S.–Israel war on Iran, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Monday. Leavitt said the president is "quite interested" in calling on regional partners to share the expense.The idea mirrors the financing arrangement of the 1990‑91 Gulf War, when a coalition of Arab and Western nations covered roughly 88% of the $61 billion cost, leaving the United States to foot only about 12%.Trump also hinted that, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, other export‑dependent partners should manage the crisis. The strait carries about 20% of the world’s oil and LNG shipments; its shutdown has pushed Brent crude to **$116 per barrel**, up from pre‑war levels near **$65**.Iran, meanwhile, has demanded that the United States pay reparations to Iranian victims as a precondition for any cease‑fire.So far, there is no clear commitment from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members—countries that have themselves been hit by Iranian strikes—to finance the conflict. Analysts estimate the total bill could run into tens of billions of dollars, though exact figures remain uncertain.Experts note a shift in regional attitudes: GCC states opposed the war before it began and continue to call for diplomacy, according to Zeidon Alkinani of the Arab Perspectives Institute. He added that Israel appears to be the primary driver pushing the United States into the confrontation.History shows the United States has repeatedly sought external funding for wars it leads. During the Gulf War, Saudi Arabia contributed $16.8 billion (27% of total costs) and Kuwait $16 billion (26%). Japan, Germany, the UAE and South Korea also supplied sizable sums.Post‑World War II, the U.S. administered the Marshall Plan, providing over $13 billion to rebuild Europe, while Germany and Japan paid reparations and later funded the upkeep of U.S. bases—about $1 billion annually each.In the ongoing Ukraine war, the United States once delivered the largest aid package—€114.64 billion (≈$134 billion) by mid‑2025. Since Trump returned to office in 2025, he has withdrawn **99% of U.S. support**, shifting the financial load to European allies and turning the U.S. into a major arms supplier, with weapons sales reaching a record **$318.7 billion in 2024**. Recent deals, such as a $10 billion weapons package for Ukraine financed by European partners, illustrate this new model.These precedents underscore a pattern: when U.S. leadership faces costly overseas engagements, it often looks to allies—especially those with strategic interests—to share or assume the fiscal burden.

Somalia's national army has taken control of the strategic city of Baidoa, the largest in Southwest state, prompting the regional leader to resign. The city's takeover comes two weeks after the Southwest state administration announced it was severing ties with the federal government.The city of Baidoa, located about 245 km northwest of the capital Mogadishu, is home to international peacekeepers and humanitarian agencies in an area affected by drought, conflict, and displacement.Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, the President of Southwest State, announced his resignation on Facebook, stating that he had been in office for more than seven years. His resignation comes days after he was re-elected for another five-year term, an election the federal government deemed illegal.Earlier on Monday, Somalia's federal forces entered Baidoa, taking full control of the city and marking the start of a political transition. A local elder described the city as calm but a ghost town.The Southwest state's transition began with the appointment of its finance minister, Ahmed Mohamed Hussein, as acting president through a formal decree. The central government in Mogadishu hailed the state's transition and urged calm and unity.The federal government emphasized that no acts of retaliation will be tolerated, underscoring its commitment to protecting lives and property during this sensitive political transition.The dispute with Southwest is the latest sign of strain in Somalia's fragile federal system, where disputes over elections and the balance of power between Mogadishu and regional administrations repeatedly open up political fault lines.

British hedge‑fund billionaire Chris Rokos has announced a £190 million endowment to the University of Cambridge to create a new, eponymous school of government. The pledge, comprising an initial £130 million and a further commitment of up to £60 million that the university will match, is believed to be the largest single donation ever made to a UK university. The Rokos School of Government is slated to open in temporary facilities this autumn, offering PhD and master’s programmes focused on public policy, leadership and governance. In the longer term it will relocate to a purpose‑built campus within Cambridge’s West Innovation District, positioning itself as a direct rival to Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, which was launched in 2010 with a £75 million gift. Rokos, 55, rose from a state primary school to a scholarship at Eton and a mathematics degree at Oxford before co‑founding the hedge fund Brevan Howard and later establishing Rokos Capital Management, which now employs over 350 staff. He is listed on the Sunday Times Rich List with an estimated net worth of £2.6 billion and is among the UK’s biggest taxpayers. Speaking about the donation, Rokos said, "I was fortunate to be given an education that transformed my life, and I would like to give something back to Britain. My hope is that, in time, the influence of the Rokos School of Government across the world becomes an important element of that soft power, which has been a great asset to the UK." University officials framed the new school as a response to “growing turbulence in domestic and international politics, increasing polarisation of political opinion, and long‑term structural changes in the economy.” The institution aims to provide a “unique forum for radical and remarkable thinking,” leveraging Cambridge’s tradition of scientific innovation and interdisciplinary collaboration. Vice‑chancellor Prof. Deborah Prentice added, "Tackling the enormous challenges facing our world requires radical new ways of thinking and approaches to leadership. Cambridge’s strengths across all disciplines and its convening power make it uniquely positioned to drive this innovation. Thanks to Chris’s generous support, the Rokos School will become a place where current and future leaders, together with experts from across our institution, generate the insights and solutions needed for a rapidly changing world." The school’s establishment also reflects a broader trend of private wealth shaping public‑policy education in the UK, echoing similar high‑profile gifts such as Leonard Blavatnik’s £75 million donation to Oxford. By creating a dedicated hub for governance studies, Rokos hopes to cement Cambridge’s role as a training ground for future world leaders and to reinforce Britain’s international influence. Rokos Capital Management recently made headlines when talks to appoint former UK ambassador Peter Mandelson as an adviser were terminated following renewed scrutiny of the Epstein scandal, underscoring the complex interplay between finance, politics and public perception. The £190 million endowment not only marks a milestone for UK higher‑education philanthropy but also signals a strategic investment in the development of policy expertise that could shape global governance for decades to come.

The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has confirmed that millions of victims of the country's car finance scandal will receive payouts this year. The regulator has unveiled a long-awaited industry-wide scheme to compensate people who were treated unfairly when taking out motor finance to buy a new or second-hand vehicle. The scheme, which will put £7.5bn back into people's pockets, is expected to result in a likely total bill of £9.1bn for lenders. The FCA had previously estimated that 14.2m loan agreements would be considered unfair and therefore due compensation, but this number has been cut to 12.1m. The average payout is expected to be around £830 per agreement, up from the previously estimated £695. The scheme will largely focus on people whose deal included a 'discretionary commission arrangement' (DCA), a type of car finance banned in 2021. Millions of claims will be paid out later this year, with the vast majority settled by the end of 2027. The FCA has advised people to 'complain now to get compensation sooner' and has provided a template letter on its website for those who want to make a claim. Lenders will have three months from the end of the implementation period to let people know whether they are owed compensation and, if so, how much. The payout timings vary, but for a post-April 2014 agreement, a lender must confirm if someone is owed money, and how much, by 30 September this year. The individual has a month to accept or challenge the offer, by 31 October. Then compensation is paid within one month, by November.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) will unveil the final terms of its compensation scheme for the UK car finance scandal on Monday, providing clarity for millions of drivers who may be eligible for payouts. The scheme, which is expected to cost around £11bn, will offer redress to drivers who were overcharged for loans as a result of controversial commission payments between lenders and car dealers.The FCA's proposal, outlined over 360 pages, suggests that 14m motor finance agreements will be affected, with individual compensation payouts averaging around £700. However, some groups have argued that this amount is too low, and that consumers could be due £1,500 or more.The car loan providers most impacted by the scheme include Lloyds Banking Group, Santander, Barclays, and Close Brothers. These companies have been lobbying against the FCA's proposals, arguing that they are too generous and could disrupt the car finance market.The FCA's scheme aims to draw a line under the car finance scandal, but there are concerns that it could be circumvented or delayed by aggrieved parties. Some lenders and claims law firms have signaled that they may consider legal action against the FCA's final proposals.

UK savers who want to maximize their cash Isa allowance are being warned not to leave it until the last minute, as the deadline for applications is on Easter Sunday, April 5. The cash Isa allows individuals to save or invest up to £20,000 per tax year, with returns free of tax. Experts are advising savers to take action now, as the allowance for those under 65 will be reduced to £12,000 from the next tax year. This change, announced in last year's budget, aims to encourage younger savers to consider investing in the stock market. In April 2025, a record £14 billion was paid into cash Isas, and this year is expected to see a similar surge. Anna Bowes, personal savings expert at The Private Office, emphasized that savers need to act quickly, as some providers may withdraw their offerings early to process applications before the deadline. Savers can currently find competitive interest rates, with fixed rates of around 4.45% available from providers like Close Brothers Savings, Furness building society, and Vida Savings. For variable-rate Isas, Plum is offering 4.66%, and Tembo Money is paying 4.55%, both including a bonus for the first 12 months. Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, warned that savers should not delay, as missing the deadline could mean losing the chance to use this year's allowance. She also recommended exploring options beyond traditional high street banks, as challenger banks and building societies are offering some of the best deals.