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Donald Trump announced over the weekend that he wants to "take the oil in Iran" by seizing control of Kharg Island, the strategic outpost through which roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow. Experts say the remark underscores a blatant disregard for international law and exemplifies what they term “fossil‑fuel imperialism.” Patrick Bigger, co‑director of the Transition Security Project, described the approach as a "might‑makes‑right" logic that is both "abhorrent and spectacularly miscalculated." Trump is slated to give an update on the Iran‑U.S. conflict on Wednesday. He previously claimed the war could end within weeks, a statement that sent the stock market soaring on expectations of de‑escalation. Iran, however, has insisted it needs guarantees against future attacks before halting its counter‑offensive. The fighting continues, highlighted by an Iranian strike on a fully loaded crude tanker in Dubai and threats to "blow up and completely obliterate" Iran’s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened promptly. Kharg Island, a five‑mile strip that handles the bulk of Iran’s oil shipments, along with its power plants and oil wells, has been singled out by Trump. He told the Financial Times that U.S. forces should take over the island and the oil stored there. "My favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran," Trump said, adding that critics in the United States are "stupid people." Amir Handjani, an energy lawyer at the Quincy Institute, warned that the statement "completely discredited" the war’s stated objectives and revealed a classic play for natural resources. Handjani noted that Trump’s desire to seize Iranian oil is not new; he voiced similar ambitions in a 1988 interview while promoting The Art of the Deal, saying he would "do a number on Kharg Island" if elected. The former president has also floated comparable ideas for Iraq, Syria and Venezuela, suggesting the United States could appropriate their oil to offset war costs or bolster strategic reserves. Handjani emphasized that international law provides no framework for waging war to capture sovereign nations' natural resources. From a military perspective, taking Kharg Island would be extremely challenging. Iranian missile defenses have rendered regional U.S. bases inoperable, meaning any assault would likely require a parachute insertion of Marines into heavy fire, with the risk of massive Iranian retaliation. Handjani warned that such retaliation could target oil export terminals across the Persian Gulf, potentially driving crude prices to $200‑$300 per barrel and destabilising the global economy. The conflict has already caused the largest-ever disruption to global energy supplies, killing thousands and sparking sharp fuel‑price shocks. While consumers bear the brunt, major fossil‑fuel companies are enjoying windfall profits. Bigger noted that higher oil prices benefit oil majors and are being used as a pretext to expand U.S. drilling, further entrenching reliance on carbon‑intensive fuels. According to Bigger, Trump’s rhetoric reveals a belief that "fossil fuels are a linchpin of his domestic industrial strategy," and that controlling oil equates to controlling global power. He argues that this mindset threatens the international order and hampers the transition to cleaner energy.

The UK is set to host 35 countries, excluding the US, to discuss ways to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route for oil and gas that has been blocked by Iran. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that the next phase of discussions, led by the UK and France, will take place on Thursday, with Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, alongside international leaders.The meeting will focus on assessing viable diplomatic and political measures to restore freedom of navigation, guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers, and resume the movement of vital commodities. British military planners will meet afterwards to discuss how to marshal their capabilities and make the strait accessible and safe after the fighting has stopped.The blockade has resulted in around 1,000 ships being stranded, with only about 130 ships passing through since the war began, compared to the normal daily number. The strait is a critical route, with a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies and a third of global fertilisers passing through before the conflict.The US has not been directly invited to participate in the talks, which will include countries that signed a joint statement last month, such as the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, as well as Japan, Canada, South Korea, and New Zealand. The Ministry of Defence has sent military planners to US Central Command to explore options for getting tankers through the strait.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to 'enemies of this nation', and US President Donald Trump has posted that there will be no ceasefire with Iran until it relinquishes control of the waterway.

Israel has unleashed a significant military operation against Iran, launching two waves of attacks on Tehran and killing a senior Hezbollah commander. The attacks have escalated tensions in the region, with Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, denying claims of a ceasefire request.US President Donald Trump has claimed that Iran's leadership is seeking a ceasefire, but Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson has denied this, calling Trump's account 'false and baseless'.The conflict has resulted in at least 1,900 people killed and 20,000 injured in Iran, according to estimates from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent societies. The Israeli military has also reported that 10 of its soldiers have been killed since fighting broke out on the Lebanese front.The attacks have had significant economic implications, with the strait of Hormuz effectively closed to oil and gas tankers and other merchant shipping since the beginning of the conflict, hiking oil prices and causing critical shortages around the world.Iran's president has written to Americans, asking which of their interests are being served by this war, and stating that Iranians 'harbor no enmity towards other nations, including the people of America'. The conflict continues to escalate, with further waves of attacks reported across the densely populated centre of Israel.

The UK's declining birthrate has been a growing concern in recent years, with long-term fiscal pressures expected to arise from supporting an ageing population. A new report by the Resolution Foundation thinktank, titled 'Bye Bye Baby', suggests that politicians should prioritize tackling housing affordability to encourage young people to have more children.The report highlights a significant shift in the proportion of women who are not yet mothers by age 30, rising from 48% for those born in the late 1980s to 58% for those born in the early 1990s. This trend is most pronounced among non-graduate women aged 25-29, with more than half (54%) having no children by 2023, up from one in three in 2011.The analysis attributes this shift to falling partnership rates and a major shift away from home ownership towards costly private renting and living with parents, making it harder for young people to start a family. The share of non-graduates in their late 20s in private rented accommodation has doubled to 33% in 2023-24, while home ownership has halved over the same period.The thinktank's research suggests that financial constraints play a significant role in young people's decisions to have children. Among 32-year-olds who are not yet parents, twice the proportion of those in the lowest quarter of earners said they intended to remain permanently childless, compared with those in the top quarter of earners.Politicians have proposed various policies to encourage young people to have children, including expanding free childcare and introducing married tax allowances. However, the Resolution Foundation's research suggests that focusing on housing struggles may be a more successful approach.“Deciding whether to have children is a deeply personal choice, but it’s clear that financial constraints are at play too,” said Charlie McCurdy, senior economist at the thinktank. “Policymakers should look to address the financial barriers that are hindering young people’s ability to start a family – such as increasing housing affordability and opportunities to get on the housing ladder – to make parenthood more achievable for those who want it.”

The UK government is facing growing pressure to address the looming energy crisis sparked by the Iran war. Despite the £117-a-year cut to household utility bills announced in the autumn budget, energy costs are expected to rise again in the summer. The latest forecast from consultancy Cornwall Insight estimates the cost of a dual-fuel bill will rise by 17.6% from July.Labour ministers have been urging people to 'keep calm and carry on,' but critics argue that this message may be underplaying the scale of the challenges ahead. Andrew Sissons, director of the climate programme at Nesta, says the reality is that the global supply of oil and gas is going to be down by maybe 20%, and everybody needs to consume less.The government is trying to balance the need to address the cost of living crisis with the risk of sowing panic and denting consumer confidence. However, experts argue that a more nuanced message, such as 'keep calm but cut down,' could be more effective in encouraging people to reduce their energy consumption.Jill Rutter, of the Institute for Government thinktank, suggests that people can take steps to manage down their consumption, such as being more efficient and switching to clean electricity. The government is also facing pressure to reconsider its plans to reverse the Tories' 5p cut to fuel duty.As the conflict continues, the 'keep calm and carry on' message may sound increasingly adrift from reality. The government must navigate the challenges of addressing the energy crisis while avoiding panic and maintaining consumer confidence.

The UK hospitality sector is bracing for significant job cuts and business closures as cost increases from new business rates and higher wage bills come into effect. An industry-wide survey of 20,000 hospitality businesses found that 64% of firms plan to cut jobs, 42% intend to reduce trading hours, and one in seven will be forced to close.The increased costs are attributed to changes announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves at the November budget, including increases to the national living wage and national minimum wage, which are expected to result in an extra £1.4bn in costs for the sector. Additionally, changes to business rates will see the average hotel in England facing an increase of £28,900 more this year (up 30%), while the average restaurant can expect a 15% increase worth £1,800.The trade bodies, including UKHospitality and the British Beer and Pub Association, have warned that the conflict in the Middle East will accelerate the impact of rising wage and tax costs, with energy bills expected to rise steeply. The economic shock wave caused by the war in the Middle East has pushed economic confidence to an all-time low, according to new figures from the Institute of Directors (IoD).The IoD's Economic Confidence Index fell to its lowest ever score of -76 in March, with business directors citing labour bills, supply chain inflation, and energy as the biggest drivers of cost increases over the next 12 months. The thinktank estimates that UK companies invest the equivalent of 11.1% of GDP, well behind countries such as Japan at 18.2%, and European nations including France, at 12.7%, and Germany, at 12%.

Ukrainian unmanned aircraft have targeted the Russian Baltic port of Ust‑Luga for the fifth time within a ten‑day span, intensifying Kyiv's campaign against Russia's oil‑export infrastructure. Regional governor Alexander Drozdenko reported that three individuals, two of them children, received medical care after the latest overnight raid, and several structures sustained damage. He added that regional air‑raid alerts have since been lifted, though details on port damage remain scarce. Located on the southeastern coast of the Gulf of Finland, Ust‑Luga comprises an extensive network of oil‑processing plants and export terminals. The facility moved 32.9 million metric tonnes of oil products in the previous year and typically handles around 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day. The series of strikes on March 22, 25, 27, 29 and 31 forced temporary suspensions of export operations. According to market‑based calculations, the cumulative effect of drone attacks, a contested pipeline strike and the seizure of tankers has halted roughly 40 % of Russia's oil export capacity. The disruption has contributed to a surge in global oil prices, with Brent crude climbing above $116 a barrel – its highest level in nearly two weeks amid escalating conflicts involving the United States, Israel and Iran. While Kyiv continues to press its aerial campaign, the European Union dispatched senior diplomats, including top envoy Kaja Kallas, to the Ukrainian capital. Their visit, timed with the fourth anniversary of the Bucha massacre, underscored EU commitment to holding Russia accountable for alleged war crimes. Kallas posted on X, describing Bucha as a symbol of Russian brutality, and affirmed that the EU will not allow such atrocities to go unpunished. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha echoed the message, urging international partners to keep their focus on Ukraine despite the widening war in the Middle East. Financially, the EU’s planned €90 billion loan for Ukraine has been stalled by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who objects to Russia's oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline and is also impeding Ukraine's EU accession talks. In parallel, Kyiv announced that its air‑defence forces intercepted 267 of 289 Russian drones launched overnight, while Russian officials claimed control of the village of Mala Korchakivka in the Sumy region. The convergence of intensified drone attacks on Russian oil assets, soaring energy prices, and high‑level EU diplomatic activity highlights the expanding geopolitical ripple effects of the Ukraine conflict across Europe and the broader Middle‑East theater.

Iranian news agency Fars reported that the US-Israeli attacks on Isfahan province targeted some military sites. The incident has heightened tensions in the region, with no official confirmation of casualties or damage.In a separate incident, firefighters successfully extinguished a blaze on Kuwait's Al-Salmi oil tanker at the Dubai port following an attack on the fully loaded ship.

A drone attack on a fully loaded Kuwaiti crude oil tanker at Dubai Port sparked a fire that was later extinguished, authorities said. The Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) reported that the Al Salmi tanker was struck in an Iranian attack while anchored at the port in the United Arab Emirates, causing damage to the vessel and a fire on board.The incident is part of a string of assaults on merchant vessels by missiles or explosive air and sea drones in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz since the United States and Israel's war on Iran began on February 28. The tanker was loaded with two million barrels of oil from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, according to data from Lloyd's and TankerTrackers.Iran's foreign minister insisted that Tehran's attacks on the Gulf Arab states only target US forces, even after assaults have hit civilian targets throughout the region. The incident has raised concerns about a possible oil spill in surrounding waters, with Kuwaiti state news agency KUNA reporting that authorities warned of this risk.Multiple loud explosions were heard in Dubai, starting at around 6 or 7pm local time on Monday until about 1 or 2am on Tuesday, said Al Jazeera's Zein Basravi, reporting from Dubai. The attacks seem to be getting closer, louder, and one of them hit that oil tanker off the coast of the waters of Dubai.