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Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.

The UK government's proposal to boost North Sea oil and gas drilling is unlikely to provide relief to consumers in the form of lower energy prices. Oil prices have surged to $100 a barrel following the US and Israel's attack on Iran, with potential increases to $150 a barrel due to supply issues in the Strait of Hormuz.Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative party, has introduced a plan to 'get Britain drilling' by opening new oil and gas fields in the North Sea. However, experts argue that this will not reduce energy bills for UK consumers. Oil and gas are sold on international markets, and prices are set globally, so there is no direct discount for UK consumers.The Conservative party has previously acknowledged this, but now suggests that tax reforms and removal of VAT on bills could deliver £200 cuts to household energy bills. The plan involves scrapping the windfall tax on North Sea producers, which has raised about £12bn so far.Critics argue that the windfall tax is essential and that removing it would not stimulate production significantly. The tax does not increase prices to consumers and has the support of the International Energy Agency.Analysis suggests that redirecting tax revenues from the North Sea back to consumers would have a minimal impact on bills. A study found that households would gain only about £16 a year if tax revenues from a maximally exploited North Sea were redistributed.Badenoch's claims about job creation in the North Sea are also disputed. The sector is declining, and geology, not politics, will dictate the future of North Sea oil and gas. Most of the UK's sector has already been drained, with only about 218m tonnes of oil recoverable by 2050 from existing fields.New drilling could add only 74m tonnes of oil and 1.1% to gas production, equivalent to putting off the end of the North Sea by a year or two. Job losses in the sector are a concern, with at least 70,000 jobs lost in the decade to 2024.Experts stress that renewable energy sources are a more secure and sustainable alternative. The UK should focus on creating conditions for clean energy infrastructure to attract investment and drive growth.

Energy crises do more than lift household bills; they can reshape an entire economy. In the 1970s the United Kingdom responded to oil shortages by expanding North Sea extraction and becoming a net energy exporter. Today, with a 10 million‑barrel‑per‑day supply deficit and a fifth of global LNG trade under strain, that strategy no longer offers security.The UK is now acutely vulnerable to volatile gas prices. Inflation expectations are rising, markets anticipate higher interest rates, and borrowing costs have surged to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. The ripple effect is already evident in food markets, where inflation hit 3.3 % in February and could climb sharply within three months.New data reveal that the hundreds of North Sea licences granted since 2010 have added merely 36 days of extra gas production. Major oil majors such as BP are re‑emphasising oil and gas to reassure investors, while Shell continues aggressive share‑buy‑backs. The reality is clear: fossil‑fuel giants cannot be the rescue plan.Gas should no longer set the price floor for electricity. As the grid leans more on wind and solar, gas must be treated as a backup resource, compensated with a fixed or regulated price rather than wholesale market volatility. Research from University College London and Common Wealth outlines a practical model for this approach.Beyond market reforms, households need a safety net. An essential energy guarantee—a capped, affordable band of consumption for every home—mirrors schemes adopted in Austria, the Netherlands and Poland after the 2022 crisis and would be more targeted than the current blanket price‑support guarantee.Similarly, a protected basket of staple foods, backed by long‑term procurement and direct support for domestic producers, could stabilise prices. France’s 2023 anti‑inflation shopping‑basket experiment offers a template, and the UK already supplies over 60 % of its own food, though it remains dependent on imports for fruits, vegetables, rice and fertilisers.The long‑term solution lies in renewable power. Record wind generation this year has already reduced gas‑fired output, while consumer interest in solar panels, batteries and heat pumps is soaring. A typical solar‑plus‑battery system can slash a household’s electricity bill to under £2 per month, and electric‑vehicle owners can save more than £1,000 annually on fuel costs.To unlock these savings, the government must back financing mechanisms such as zero‑interest loans, subscription‑style purchases for solar and heat‑pump kits, and leasing schemes for electric vehicles. On a larger scale, a dual‑interest‑rate policy—standard rates for the broader economy and preferential, low‑cost funding for clean‑energy projects—could mirror the green‑lending models already used by China’s central bank and the Bank of Japan.In short, the United Kingdom faces a decisive moment. The 1970s taught that energy shocks can remake a nation; the question now is whether the UK will seize this crisis to protect living standards and build a resilient, low‑carbon energy system for the decades ahead.

The Iran war has triggered a massive energy shortfall in Asia, forcing governments to ramp up their use of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel. Countries across the region, including South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, India, and Bangladesh, are trying to compensate for a drop-off in imported energy, much of which comes from the Middle East.Climate experts have warned that the increased use of coal will have a devastating environmental impact, and that the energy crisis should be a wake-up call for governments to invest in renewables. The crisis has highlighted the importance of renewable energy for energy security in Asia.The global market has flipped within four weeks from a healthy supply surplus to a severe deficit, leading to price spikes and fuel shortages. Almost 30bn cubic meters of LNG has been removed from global supply chains, with over 80% of this loss affecting the Indo-Pacific region.Experts warn that it will take years to recover LNG supplies and that the crisis will have a lasting impact on the energy landscape in Asia. Governments are racing to overcome shortfalls, with some countries introducing measures to reduce energy consumption, such as four-day workweeks and remote work arrangements.

New legislation takes effect on 31 March 2026 as the UK government rolls out the Simpler Recycling framework, requiring every council in England to provide distinct collections for food & garden waste, paper & card, all other dry recyclables (glass, metal, plastic, cartons) and residual waste. This uniform approach replaces the historic “postcode lottery” of waste services, applying to all households – including flats and communal properties. Recycling performance: England’s municipal recycling rate has plateaued at ~44% for several years, well below Wales (57%) and Northern Ireland (≈50%). The government’s ambition is a 65% recycling rate by 2035, a target that will require substantial behavioural and infrastructure shifts. Environment minister Mary Creagh confirmed that councils have received a notable budget increase for 2026 to support the rollout. How collected material is processed: Once gathered, waste is taken to Materials Recovery Facilities where magnets, optical scanners and air jets separate streams into paper, plastics, glass and metals. These are then baled and sent to reprocessors for conversion into new products. Approximately 50% of the UK’s recycled plastic is exported, mainly to Turkey, the Netherlands and Malaysia. This export trend has drawn criticism for undermining the domestic recycling sector, which industry estimates could generate £2 billion in revenue and support around 5,000 jobs. In the past two years, 21 plastic‑recycling facilities have closed, citing low virgin‑plastic prices, competition from cheap Asian imports and the scale of exports. By contrast, the UK still lacks a ban on plastic‑waste exports to developing nations, a policy the EU has already adopted. Paper and cardboard recycling also relies heavily on overseas processing, with 3.4‑4.3 million tonnes shipped abroad each year. Food waste collection overhaul: The most visible change is the introduction of free, weekly food‑waste collection for every household. Residents will receive a small kitchen caddy and a larger outdoor bin. When separated, food waste can be fed into anaerobic digestion facilities to produce renewable energy and bio‑fertiliser, reducing landfill‑derived methane – a greenhouse gas over 80 times more potent than CO₂. The policy is also expected to raise public awareness of personal waste generation, encouraging more responsible disposal habits. Implementation timeline: While all councils must standardise dry‑recycling collections by 31 March, a transitional arrangement allows 31 councils to delay the start of weekly food‑waste collection beyond the initial Tuesday. Contamination risks: Mixing biodegradable or compostable plastics with conventional recyclable plastics can contaminate entire batches, rendering them unrecyclable. Similarly, placing paper or cardboard in residual waste diverts it to landfill or incineration, increasing greenhouse‑gas emissions. Toothpaste tubes have historically been problematic, but a Wrap‑led initiative now makes most tubes 100% recyclable. Consumers can verify local acceptance via RecycleNow, and Boots stores also collect used tubes for recycling.

More drilling in the North Sea will not enhance the UK’s energy security, a group of former senior military leaders told The Guardian on Monday, as the Conservative Party’s energy minister Kemi Badenoch launched a campaign to revive offshore oil and gas licences. The veterans, including retired Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, a climate‑security professor at University College London, warned that extracting the remaining hydrocarbons “is not the answer” to the country’s rising energy costs and geopolitical vulnerability. Morisetti emphasized that global market forces, not domestic production, set fuel prices and that reliance on imports leaves the UK exposed to “structural chokepoints” such as the Strait of Hormuz or insurance withdrawals. He urged the government to focus on a rapid transition to a diversified mix of wind, solar, tidal and nuclear power, alongside a major renewal of the electricity grid and expanded storage capacity. A recent E3G think‑tank report supports this view, stating that “structural chokepoints” in oil and gas supply chains mean that increasing fossil‑fuel output anywhere does not improve national security. The report highlights that reducing reliance on imported hydrocarbons through electrification, efficiency, and domestic clean energy offers the most durable protection against supply shocks. Maria Pastukhova, senior policy adviser at E3G, explained that while clean‑energy systems are not immune to disruptions, they shift control “under domestic ownership,” lowering exposure to geopolitical and market volatility. Data cited by the report show that the North Sea is a “mature basin” whose output has fallen 75 % since its peak. New licences granted between 2010 and 2024 have produced only 36 days of gas, according to research by the Uplift campaign and consultancy Voar, underscoring the limited impact of further drilling. Retired Lt Gen Richard Nugee compared the UK’s situation to recent developments in Spain, where electricity prices are increasingly set by renewables rather than fossil fuels, reducing dependence on vulnerable chokepoints. He argued that “going for renewables gives greater independence, greater sovereignty, less vulnerability to attack and more opportunity,” contrasting it with the finite and externally‑controlled nature of gas supplies. Experts such as Khem Rogaly of the Transition Security Project warn that reliance on “expensive and volatile fossil fuels” makes British households vulnerable to shocks from global conflicts, including US‑led oil wars. James Meadway, director of the Verdant think‑tank, added that the war in Iran has revealed the fragility of large, centralized power systems to both kinetic attacks and cyber‑threats, reinforcing the case for a more distributed energy architecture. In sum, the former military leaders and independent analysts concur that the only credible route to lasting UK energy security lies in **accelerating renewable deployment, improving efficiency, and modernising the grid**, rather than expanding North Sea drilling.

President Donald Trump's aggressive pursuit of fossil fuels, particularly in the context of the Iran conflict, has exposed the volatile nature of the fossil fuel era, according to critics. The ongoing tensions have resulted in significant economic and environmental costs, including a spike in global energy costs and a substantial humanitarian toll.The conflict has led to a humanitarian and environmental crisis in Iran and southern Lebanon, with threats of further escalation likely to exacerbate these issues. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil transportation, has had far-reaching economic implications, with consumers worldwide paying over $100 billion extra to fossil fuel companies since the conflict began. In the US, the average national cost of gasoline has risen to nearly $4 a gallon.Experts, such as Alice Hill from the Council on Foreign Relations, have expressed concerns about Trump's reliance on fossil fuels, stating that it is a risky strategy. Hill emphasized that countries investing in clean energy like solar and wind power will be better positioned to weather such crises. However, Trump's administration has actively sought to undermine clean energy projects, including banning them from federal land and waters and removing their subsidies.The Trump administration's actions have been contrasted with the growing global investment in renewable energy. Despite the declining cost of wind and solar power, the administration has taken steps to promote fossil fuel extraction, including attempting to seize oil supplies from Iran and Venezuela. This approach has been criticized for its potential to exacerbate climate change and undermine global efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources.The ongoing dependence on fossil fuels has been highlighted by recent environmental disasters, including toxic black smoke from missile strikes on oil depots in Iran and an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. These incidents have underscored the need for a shift towards cleaner energy sources to mitigate the risks associated with fossil fuel extraction and consumption.

Submersible hydroelectric systems are emerging as a pivotal component of North America’s clean‑energy strategy, especially as the Trump administration eliminates key subsidies for solar and wind. The technology, already proven in Alaska and Maine, is now being deployed in the densely populated Great Lakes corridor, where electricity demand and prices are climbing sharply. Last month, Ocean Renewable Power Company (ORPC) announced its first urban installation on the St Lawrence River in Montreal, slated to launch two carbon‑fiber turbine units later this year. ORPC’s CEO Stuart Davies highlighted the river’s “consistent, high‑velocity water” and estimated a 60‑90 MW resource potential for the Montreal area alone. In parallel, ORPC is preparing a second project on the Niagara River near Buffalo, New York, and plans a future deployment on the lower Mississippi River between Baton Rouge and New Orleans. The timing coincides with record electricity price spikes across the Great Lakes. New York’s public service commission approved substantial rate hikes in September, and further increases are scheduled for 2027, while Michigan and Ohio face similar pressures driven by data‑center expansion. These economic pressures are driving interest in marine‑based power. Unlike traditional hydropower, ORPC’s devices resemble “push‑lawn‑mower blades” and can generate between 0.5 MW and 5 MW continuously, offering a potential baseload for industrial users and a reliable backup during grid outages. Environmental considerations remain central. While Quebec benefits from long‑standing, low‑cost hydropower, U.S. projects endure an average eight‑year licensing timeline. Critics worry about impacts on fish and wildlife, though ORPC cites its Alaska deployment—operating since 2019 without recorded fish injuries despite massive salmon migrations—as evidence of minimal ecological risk. Researchers are also expanding the technology’s reach to slower‑moving waters. University of Michigan professor Michael Bernitsas demonstrated the Vivace system on the St Clair River, capable of harvesting energy from currents as low as 0.5 m/s, suggesting broader applicability across the Great Lakes watershed. Operating in fresh water offers a distinct advantage: the absence of salt eliminates corrosion, extending turbine lifespan and reducing costs compared with ocean‑based projects. Some European tidal installations have even anchored devices to riverbeds to avoid ice damage, a practice ORPC may adopt. Financially, the sector benefits from a 40‑50 % investment tax credit that remains intact, even as the Trump administration phases out Biden‑era subsidies for solar and wind. The National Hydropower Association confirms that marine‑energy tax incentives will stay in place through at least 2033, reshaping the competitive landscape and attracting inquiries from entities in over 70 countries. As electricity bills rise and policy shifts favor alternative renewables, submersible hydropower could become a cornerstone of the Great Lakes’ energy mix, delivering resilient, low‑carbon power while navigating regulatory and environmental hurdles.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will lead to higher prices and slower global growth, affecting countries worldwide. The Washington-based organisation emphasised that a rise in energy and food costs will harm economic growth this year and could leave lasting scars on the global economy.The IMF's analysis, published in a blogpost by its main department heads, including chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that governments with high levels of borrowing will have limited access to funds to cushion the worst effects of the crisis. The organisation warned that all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth should the conflict continue to disrupt the supply of oil, gas, and fertiliser from the Gulf.While some countries, such as the US, may gain from higher fossil fuel prices as net exporters of oil and gas, the rise in bills for petrol, diesel, and food will harm living standards. Businesses are also forecast to come under pressure to raise prices, possibly forcing central banks to raise interest rates to combat inflation.The IMF highlighted that about a third of fertiliser production travels through the strait of Hormuz, which could push up prices. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation projects that global prices could average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists. Natural gas prices have more than doubled in the UK since last December to about £140 a therm, while a barrel of Brent crude that cost about $60 before the conflict hit more than $116 on Monday before falling back to $112.The IMF added that forecasts for sharp rises in the cost of gas and electricity in Europe next winter are forcing governments to consider higher subsidies and welfare payments to the worst-affected households. The organisation noted that countries such as Italy and the UK are especially exposed by their reliance on gas-fired power, while France and Spain are relatively protected by their greater nuclear and renewables capacity.