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The recent announcement of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US has been hailed by Donald Trump as a victorious dawn of a new era, but it is Iran that enters peace talks with the stronger hand. The Tehran regime has demonstrated its power to close the Hormuz strait and holds a stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), the original crux of the conflict with the US, Israel, and allies.Trump won instant gratification with the ceasefire, which allowed him to remain the central player in the drama and claim a few hours later to have dramatically reversed course and be “far along” along the road to an enduring Middle East peace. However, the actual ceasefire terms remain hazy with varying interpretations in circulation.Iran's 10-point plan, not Trump's 15-pointer, was referred to when welcoming the ceasefire, calling it “a workable basis on which to negotiate”. The Tehran government included the right to enrich in the Farsi version of the ceasefire terms, but not in the English translation, suggesting it was put there for domestic consumption as the regime boasted victory.There seems little doubt that Iran will make the right to enrich uranium a red line at talks over a long-term settlement, as it has in all its negotiations with the west, and its possession of 440kg of HEU (enough in theory to make a dozen nuclear warheads) will be a powerful bargaining chip.

Oil markets experienced a dramatic correction on Wednesday, with Brent crude falling 13.9% to $94.10 per barrel and U.S. WTI futures sliding almost 16% to $95, marking the steepest daily percentage drop since the COVID‑19 crash of April 2020. Despite the plunge, prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels, when Brent traded below $73.The price shock followed President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week, conditional ceasefire with Iran, contingent on Tehran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed the strait would be managed by the Iranian military during the grace period, while Iran’s national security council accepted the ceasefire on the condition that U.S. attacks be halted.Equity markets reacted positively. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 surged 4%, its biggest one‑day gain in over four years. In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed nearly 3% to 10,646 points, its highest level since the early days of the Iran war. Travel and leisure stocks led the rally, with Air France up 14.5%, Lufthansa +11%, IAG +9.5% and TUI +12%.Oil majors were the notable laggards; BP and Shell each lost more than 5% as investors priced in continued supply uncertainty. Asian markets also posted strong gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose over 5%, Australia’s S&P;/ASX 200 jumped 2.55%, South Korea’s Kospi surged 7.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 3.1% and China’s CSI300 climbed 3.2%.Bond yields eased on the ceasefire news. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield fell to 4.24% from 4.30%, while the UK 10‑year gilt slipped to 4.7% from 4.9%.Safe‑haven assets rallied as well: gold rose more than 2% to $4,812 per ounce, and cryptocurrencies recovered, with Bitcoin up 2.9% to $71,327 and Ether gaining 5.6% to $2,234.Market strategists emphasized the provisional nature of the relief. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank markets strategist, warned that “investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief, but the durability of the ceasefire remains the key risk.” He noted ongoing Israeli‑Iran strikes and unclear extensions to Lebanon could reignite volatility.Energy analyst Saul Kavonic (MST Financial) described the pause as “an off‑ramp for Trump’s bombastic ultimatum, but not yet an off‑ramp for oil markets or the war.” He expects a limited release of tankers from Hormuz in May, which would ease storage pressure without boosting production.Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing highlighted potential transit fees for Hormuz passage, estimating a $1‑2 million charge per tanker—equivalent to roughly $1 per barrel—would have a modest effect on global oil prices but could signal a de‑facto partial nationalisation of the route.TD Securities senior strategist Prashant Newnaha cautioned that “renewed escalation cannot be ruled out, but markets are treating this ceasefire as the real deal, and all parties will sell it as a major win.” He added that oil prices are unlikely to revert to pre‑war levels, keeping inflationary pressures alive.Earlier in the week, U.S. equities swung sharply, with the S&P; 500 dipping 1.2% before rebounding after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend the deadline and keep the strait open.The conflict, which began after the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian targets in late February, has choked the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies flow—fueling a worldwide energy crunch.

Israel has reaffirmed that its military operations in Lebanon will persist, defying US President Donald Trump's ceasefire announcement aimed at Iran. The Israeli military has continued to carry out strikes in Lebanon, with civilians in southern Lebanon being told to move north of the Zahrani River.The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that Trump's two-week pause in military action against Iran does not include Lebanon. This stance directly contradicts statements made by Iran and Pakistan, which has been mediating in the conflict.Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had announced that Iran, the US, and their allies had agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon. However, Israel maintains that its conflict with Lebanon, particularly with Hezbollah, is separate.On Wednesday morning, an Israeli military spokesperson confirmed that operations against Hezbollah were ongoing. The military also issued a warning in Arabic to people in Tyre to move away from a building, a common precursor to an airstrike in a populated area.The conflict in Lebanon has resulted in over 1,500 deaths, many of them civilians, and has displaced more than 1.1 million people, with many living on the streets. The situation remains volatile as Hezbollah is expected to issue a formal statement outlining its position on the ceasefire and Netanyahu's assertion that Lebanon is not included in the agreement.

Mariam Sabbah, a 10-year-old Palestinian girl, lost her arm in an Israeli missile attack on Gaza and has arrived in the UK for specialist treatment. She was accompanied by her mother, Fatma Salman, and two brothers at Heathrow airport.The family was met with a warm welcome, including gifts, balloons, and bouquets. Mariam's arm was amputated after a missile tore through her family's home in Deir al-Balah. Her family had initially hoped to go to the US for treatment but was unable to due to visa restrictions.According to the World Health Organization (WHO), over 11,000 patients have been evacuated from Gaza, with an estimated 18,500 more in need of urgent care. The UK government had announced a medical evacuation scheme last year, which led to the arrival of Mariam and her family in the UK for privately funded specialized treatment.Aid organizations have called on the UK government to increase efforts to help evacuate critically ill and injured children from Gaza. The WHO announced on Monday that it would suspend medical evacuations after a contracted worker was killed.Mosab Nasser, co-founder of FAJR Global, stated that more lives would be lost due to the WHO's decision. The UK government scheme relies on the WHO to provide a list of patients identified as priority cases by medical specialists in Gaza.Campaigners have expressed concerns that without urgent action, more preventable illness and deaths will occur. Since October 2023, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar have assisted the most number of patients medically evacuated from Gaza.

Shell is poised to report a substantial increase in profits from its commodity trading activities in the first quarter, driven by recent market volatility sparked by the Iran crisis. The energy giant's chemicals and products unit, which encompasses its primary oil trading desk, is expected to see a significant boost in trading results.The company's trading windfall is particularly notable in its renewable energy division, with predicted earnings ranging from $200m to $700m in the first quarter, up from approximately $100m in the previous quarter. This surge is attributed to the historic price rises in oil and gas markets following Iran's retaliation to US-Israeli aggression, which included throttling energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz and launching strikes against key energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.However, Shell's gas production is expected to decline by about 5% to between 880,000 and 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to 948,000 in the fourth quarter, due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on its assets in Qatar. A strike damaged Shell's assets at the Ras Laffan liquified natural gas (LNG) complex in Qatar, contributing to the expected decline.Despite these challenges, Shell's boss, Wael Sawan, has warned that Europe could face an energy and fuel shortage in April without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The company is working with governments to address the oil and gas supply crisis, which has already led to energy rationing in some Asian countries.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer embarked on a visit to the Gulf on Wednesday, following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. This development brings a moment of relief to the region and the world, as stated by Starmer.The ceasefire, agreed on Tuesday evening, effectively cancels a self-imposed deadline by US President Donald Trump for Iran to surrender or face widespread destruction. Starmer emphasized the need for the international community to support and sustain this ceasefire, with the goal of turning it into a lasting agreement.During his visit, Starmer will discuss diplomatic efforts to uphold the ceasefire and protect the UK and global economy, which has been impacted by the conflict. The British government aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil and gas shipping route that has been closed since US-Israel attacks began.The visit comes amid mounting pressure on Starmer to limit US access to British airbases, following Trump's warning that a 'whole civilization will die' if Tehran did not comply with his demands. Trump's comments were criticized by military observers and retired officers as 'likely war crimes'.British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has been in talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, urging a swift end to the conflict and giving the UK's backing to negotiations. Cooper and Rubio also discussed international efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz, including a UK-led meeting that brought together over 40 countries to pursue reopening.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has welcomed a two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, describing the news as 'very positive' and expressing hope it would lead to a permanent end to the conflict that has driven up global fuel prices. The ceasefire agreement was announced just before Trump's self-imposed deadline for Iran to surrender or face widespread destruction, including the bombing of bridges and power plants. Trump had warned that 'a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.' In an interview with Sky News, Albanese criticized Trump's threat to destroy civilian infrastructure, calling it an 'extraordinary statement to make'. He emphasized that the conduct of any conflict must be within international law, which protects civilians. The Nationals leader, Matt Canavan, had urged Albanese to make clear to the US that Australia wouldn’t support Trump’s threat of widespread bombings. Albanese has avoided criticizing Trump's inflammatory language in the past but took a firmer stance this time. The two-week ceasefire, facilitated by Pakistan, allows for safe passage through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping lane that Iran had effectively closed in retaliation for US and Israel strikes. In a joint statement, Albanese and Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong welcomed the ceasefire and called for the agreement to be upheld and the conflict resolved. They highlighted that Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused unprecedented energy supply shocks and impacted oil and fuel prices. Albanese's comments mark a rare instance of criticism from a world leader against Trump's aggressive rhetoric. The development underscores the significant global economic implications of the conflict and the efforts to de-escalate tensions.

The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with Tehran temporarily reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Israel has also agreed to the ceasefire. The plan, submitted via Pakistani intermediaries, includes 10 key demands, such as:The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.US military withdrawal from the Middle East.An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.The release of frozen Iranian assets.A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.The Iranian foreign minister stated that safe passage through the strait would be allowed under Iranian military management, with Iran and Oman charging fees on ships transiting through the strait. The US has yet to publicly state if it will attend negotiations in Islamabad on Friday.Key concerns include Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, which could have significant implications for global oil supplies and regional stability. The US is unlikely to agree to Iran's maximalist demands, but they may form the basis for talks.The ceasefire comes as Trump's approval ratings have hit their lowest level ever, with sizeable majorities of Americans opposed to the war and frustrated by the rising cost of petrol.

The recent UN General Assembly resolution, led by Ghana, has made a significant statement by declaring the transatlantic slave trade 'the gravest crime against humanity'. Adopted with 123 votes in favor, 3 against, and 52 abstentions, this resolution urges steps including formal apologies, reparatory justice, and the return of looted cultural property.The voting pattern revealed a stark divide, with much of Africa, the Caribbean, and the global south supporting the resolution as a moral imperative. In contrast, Western countries, including the US, Israel, and Argentina, which voted against it, and the UK and EU member states, which abstained, reacted as if acknowledgment itself were a threat to their comfort.Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama emphasized that the resolution is 'a pathway to healing and reparative justice' and 'a safeguard against forgetting'. The resolution aims to establish, at the highest level, a crime whose scale, brutality, and enduring consequences continue to structure the present.The backlash against the resolution has been revealing, with objections from Britain and the EU framed in terms of legal caution. They argued that the resolution creates a 'hierarchy of historical atrocities' and that the slave trade was not prohibited by international law at the time. However, this stance is seen as a way to avoid confronting the world-making role of transatlantic slavery.The Caribbean Community (Caricom)'s 10-point plan for reparatory justice is crucial in this context. For over a decade, Caricom has insisted that reparatory justice is not merely about writing cheques but about linking formal apologies to development, public health, education, and other areas. The UN resolution is seen as a first step in creating political and moral architecture for reparations claims.The fear of Western countries is not of rhetoric but of precedent. Once the slave trade is officially recognized as foundational and still alive in its consequences, questions about debt, underdevelopment, museum collections, and trade structures inevitably follow. The resolution has exposed who wants the wealth from slavery to remain history's most profitable amnesia.