Iran Gains Upper Hand in Peace Talks as Ceasefire Fails to Clarify Key Terms

The recent announcement of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US has been hailed by Donald Trump as a victorious dawn of a new era, but it is Iran that enters peace talks with the stronger hand. The Tehran regime has demonstrated its power to close the Hormuz strait and holds a stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), the original crux of the conflict with the US, Israel, and allies.

Trump won instant gratification with the ceasefire, which allowed him to remain the central player in the drama and claim a few hours later to have dramatically reversed course and be “far along” along the road to an enduring Middle East peace. However, the actual ceasefire terms remain hazy with varying interpretations in circulation.

Iran's 10-point plan, not Trump's 15-pointer, was referred to when welcoming the ceasefire, calling it “a workable basis on which to negotiate”. The Tehran government included the right to enrich in the Farsi version of the ceasefire terms, but not in the English translation, suggesting it was put there for domestic consumption as the regime boasted victory.

There seems little doubt that Iran will make the right to enrich uranium a red line at talks over a long-term settlement, as it has in all its negotiations with the west, and its possession of 440kg of HEU (enough in theory to make a dozen nuclear warheads) will be a powerful bargaining chip.