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Internet Blackout Flickers Back: The Human Toll After 88 DaysAt about 5 pm on Tuesday, the first wave of messages, images and poems broke through Iran’s near‑total internet blackout that began on 8 January. While many celebrated the return of any connection, the tone was dominated by scepticism, anxiety and grief.Partial Restoration Triggers Mixed Reactions Across IranFirst‑hand accounts illustrate the emotional split:Ellie, 42, an artist from Tehran, described lighting a cigarette, playing SoundCloud and crying, calling the glimpse of connectivity “a small taste of a much greater freedom.”Maryam, a photographer, called the celebrations “nauseating” and warned that the internet is a basic right, not a regime achievement.Mina, 23, a recently arrested protester, warned that the limited return could be a prelude to expanded surveillance, dubbing it “filternet.”Other voices, from students posting “Hello, fellow prisoners” to diaspora activists monitoring loved‑ones, echoed a blend of relief and dread.Scale of Disruption: Numbers Behind the BlackoutDuration: 88 days of near‑total outage.Start date: 8 January – imposed to crush nationwide anti‑government protests.Partial lifts: Gradual restoration in February, a second blackout after late‑February US/Israeli strikes, and the latest limited connectivity on 30 May 2026.Access cost: VPNs became “rocketing” in price, leaving most citizens in digital isolation.Why the Partial Return Deepens Political and Social StrainThe limited connectivity does not signal a liberalisation of digital rights. Instead, it reveals a strategic use of the internet as a tool of control:Regime supporters applauded the government, framing the partial lift as a victory.Iranians on the ground reported that essential services—mobile internet, WhatsApp—remain largely unusable, hampering work and communication.The national security council’s recent approval of “Internet Pro”—a restricted, sector‑specific service—suggests a move toward monitored, commercial‑grade connectivity rather than open access.Diaspora observers noted heightened anxiety over possible surveillance, with many fearing that the restored channels will be used to track dissent.What the Next Phase of “Internet Pro” Could Mean for IraniansAnalysts warn that the rollout of Internet Pro may cement a two‑tiered digital landscape: a limited, state‑approved network for businesses and a heavily throttled, surveilled channel for the general public. If the regime expands this model, the following outcomes are plausible:Increased reliance on costly VPNs and satellite links for uncensored communication.Further erosion of trust in online platforms, driving more citizens to offline or encrypted alternatives.Potential escalation of international pressure as human‑rights groups highlight the disparity between “partial restoration” and genuine freedom of expression.For now, the flicker of connectivity serves as a stark reminder that “what truly came back online is our misery, not freedom.”

New research commissioned by Friends of the Earth Ireland and Beyond Fossil Fuels reveals that the rapid expansion of data centres in Ireland is silently inflating household electricity bills, creating what the authors call a "hidden data‑centre tax". Datacentre Power Surge Consumes 22% of Ireland’s Electricity According to the Central Statistics Office, data centres used 22% of the nation’s electricity last year – more than the combined consumption of all urban homes. By contrast, the United States and the United Kingdom each see data‑centre demand at roughly 6% of total electricity use. €715 million Drain and €360 Household Cost Spike (2015‑2023) €715 million has been extracted from the Irish economy as a net cost of data‑centre electricity demand. Average household bills rose by a cumulative €360 between 2015 and 2023. Modelling by Seán Fearon, post‑doctoral researcher at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, links the rise to increased hours where gas sets the system price. Ripple Effects on Irish Economy and European Energy Prices Jill McArdle of Beyond Fossil Fuels warns that Ireland’s experience is a warning sign for Europe: unchecked data‑centre growth can amplify energy‑price volatility, especially when combined with fossil‑gas dependence. Industry groups counter that data centres inject capital – €18 billion in recent years – and pay substantial corporate taxes, funding public infrastructure. Future Cost Trajectory: €295‑€644 per Household (2025‑2034) Fearon projects that, depending on growth rates, the average Irish household could incur an additional €295‑€644 in electricity costs over the 2025‑2034 decade, amounting to a national total between €633 million and €1.43 billion. Policy Outlook: Calls for EU Safeguards and Renewable Offsets Stakeholders urge the European Commission to tighten safeguards, ensuring new data centres are matched with renewable‑energy capacity. Without such measures, the sector could lock Europe into a “toxic mix” of high‑demand tech and volatile fossil‑gas pricing.

The Decline of the European Green Wave European Green parties have entered a phase of stagnation and crisis, marking a sharp contrast to the 'green wave' that swept across the continent in 2019. While Green parties secured their best-ever result in the European parliament elections that year—winning 74 seats—they have since been forced out of nearly all governing coalitions. This period is characterized by a 'greenlash,' a growing public backlash against climate policies and green projects, leading to election results that have failed to meet expectations. The UK Green Party's Resurgence under Zack Polanski In stark contrast to the continental downturn, the Green Party of England and Wales has experienced a meteoric rise under its new leader, Zack Polanski. Since winning the leadership election in September 2025, the party has shifted its messaging strategy significantly. Polanski has moved away from environmental protection as the sole dominant theme, instead focusing on economic inequality, the cost of living, housing, and rent prices. The party has also adopted a clear stance on social issues, including condemnation of the genocide in Gaza and support for trans rights, positioning itself firmly against the Labour party on these fronts. Economic Inequality as a Driver of Support Data analysis of the UK elections reveals a critical shift in voter demographics. The party's strategy of emphasizing redistribution and social justice has proven highly effective. A report by Persuasion UK indicated that Green voters were equally likely to cite redistribution and taxes as their primary motivators as they were climate breakdown. Notably, the Greens have found a strong foothold among financially insecure voters. Among this demographic with liberal social attitudes, 47% voted for the Greens, compared to only 25% for Labour. This contrasts with many European Green parties, which traditionally rely on support from highly educated, financially secure voters. Beyond Left vs. Right: The Three Pillars of Success The UK model offers three distinct lessons for European parties seeking to reverse their fortunes: Emphasize Economic Inequality: Broadening the agenda to include redistributive policies does not damage credibility on climate issues; rather, it expands the electoral coalition. Hold Strong Positions on Social Issues: Taking a clear, unwavering stance on progressive identity politics (such as trans rights) creates space to discuss economic agendas without getting bogged down in culture wars. Embrace Progressive Identity Politics: The party has successfully become a home for activists and voters disillusioned with traditional party structures, engaging with nightlife and cultural spaces to build a grassroots movement. The Future Outlook: A Dominant Left-Wing Coalition? The perceived 'greenlash' has caused many European Green parties to become hesitant and moderate, watering down their demands. However, the UK experience suggests a different path: be bolder and clearer in messaging. Given the current weakness of many social democratic parties across Europe, there is a unique opportunity for Green parties to broaden their appeal. By adopting this strategy of economic focus and progressive identity, Green parties could potentially evolve from niche movements into the dominant left-of-centre force in European politics.

The Geopolitical Shock to US Inflation MetricsUnited States inflation has accelerated to its fastest pace in three years, driven largely by the fallout from the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for inflation, rose by 3.8 percent over the last year in April, following a 3.5 percent increase in March.The Mechanics Behind the 3.8% SurgeOn a month-over-month basis, the PCE Price Index rose by 0.4 percent in April, a deceleration from the 0.7 percent spike seen in March. The primary driver of this acceleration is the energy sector, with goods prices ticking up by 0.7 percent. Petrol prices surged by 5.5 percent, pushing the average cost of a gallon of petrol to $4.42, up from $4.17 the previous month and $2.98 in February.Food prices rose by 0.5 percent, the largest monthly increase since November 2022.Housing and utility costs jumped by 0.6 percent.Consumer spending increased by 0.5 percent, while the savings rate fell by 2.6 percent, indicating consumers are drawing down reserves.The Fed's Dilemma Under New LeadershipThe surge in price pressures places significant pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of its first policy meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, scheduled for June 16-17. The central bank is tasked with reaching its 2 percent target, and the current data suggests that price pressures are likely to persist over the next few months.Despite the uncomfortable inflation picture, the market is trending upward. The Nasdaq is up 0.6 percent and the S&P; 500 is up 0.5 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is nearly flat at 0.05 percent.Market Outlook and Future TrajectoryAnalysts predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain the 3.50-3.75 percent interest rate range well into 2027. A recent JPMorgan Chase analysis suggests rates will hold steady until mid-2027, with a potential rate hike expected later in the year rather than a cut. This reflects a cautious approach from policymakers who cannot ignore the supply shock feeding into underlying inflation.

The Strategic Retreat: Trump's Iran Policy EvolutionAfter weeks of stop-start negotiations, the US and Iran now reportedly stand on the verge of a deal to end the fighting, with the most immediate consequence being the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This development marks a dramatic shift from President Trump's initial maximalist goals, which included regime change, destruction of Iran's nuclear program, and elimination of its regional proxies.The Peace Deal Terms: Ceasefire and NegotiationsThe reported memorandum of understanding, reached with the help of Pakistani and Qatari mediators, would extend the current ceasefire for 60 days, during which negotiations would take place on the two-decades-old dispute over Iran's nuclear program. Iran's closure of the strategically vital waterway—conduit of 20% of the world's crude oil supplies before the war started—has had a baleful effect on the US economy, sending gasoline prices soaring and leading to a shortage of fertilizer that threatens food supplies and prices.From Maximalism to Reality: Strategic ImplicationsThe specter of fudged compromise illustrates how Trump's maximalist goals have shrunk—and in the eyes of some commentators, been defeated. Robert Kagan, a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote in The Atlantic that "Trump's endgame is surrender," adding that the president "no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat." Despite Trump's initial declarations that only "unconditional surrender" would be acceptable, Iran's military capabilities remain largely intact, with analysts estimating that 70% of their ballistic missiles and 70-80% of drones are still operational.Regional Impact: Shifting Power DynamicsThe evolving situation represents a significant shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics. Contrary to Trump's expectations, the Islamic regime remains intact despite targeted assassinations of its leaders. While Trump publicly proclaims successor leadership figures to be "more reasonable" than before, the regime appears to be more unyielding than ever. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father as supreme leader, was recently quoted as predicting that Israel would cease to exist by 2040. The limited military success of Trump's war of choice is now forcing him to address it through the pragmatic type of compromise that he and his rightwing allies once lambasted Obama for.Future Outlook: Trust Deficits and Political ChallengesRobert Litwak, an international relations professor at George Washington University, noted that Trump is being forced to confront a "persistent tension" in US post-cold-war policy between "transformational" approaches meant to topple rogue states and "transactional" agreements intended to change their behavior. "He's in a box because a transformational outcome is not possible," said Litwak. Trump faces significant political challenges in securing support for what essentially amounts to a variant of the JCPOA that he previously opposed. His credibility deficit with Iran, exemplified by his tendency to reverse positions on Truth Social, further complicates negotiations. As Vali Nasr, an international relations professor at Johns Hopkins University, noted: "The reason [Iranians] don't [sign on] is because they don't trust him. It has nothing to do with ideology or fractured leadership or the midterms. It's because of his record."

The Failed Dealmaker: Trump's Iran Dilemma For weeks, Donald Trump has tried to find a way to end the war he started with Iran – a deal that would allow him to declare victory and move past the conflict before it causes severe damage to the global economy and sinks Republican chances in the US midterm elections. But the self-proclaimed master dealmaker can't seem to stop sabotaging his own negotiations or to acknowledge that Iran is now in a better position to demand concessions than it was before the war. Strategic Missteps: From Military Action to Negotiation Deadlock Over the Memorial Day holiday, Trump skipped his eldest son's wedding in the Bahamas and canceled plans to spend the weekend at his New Jersey golf club. The last-minute changes heightened speculation that Trump was ready to unveil a deal to end the war. Trump then announced that he would hold a cabinet meeting at Camp David, the presidential compound in Maryland that has been the site of historic diplomatic summits. But that meeting was moved back to the White House, as it became clear that Trump had not been able to close a deal he could announce with great fanfare. The Art of the Deal: Trump's Negotiation Paradox Why has an agreement eluded the business titan who wrote the bestselling 1987 book The Art of the Deal? Trump admires strongman leaders and is loth to project any sign of weakness – and he's afraid of reaching a deal with Iran that makes him look weak. The president is also sensitive to criticism that any agreement he negotiates will be worse for the US than the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, which was brokered by Barack Obama's administration. Leverage Reversed: How Iran Gained the Upper Hand Trump's main problem is that Iran has more leverage than he does – and Iranian leaders are well aware of that advantage. On 28 February, Trump launched a joint US-Israeli war against Iran, killing the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other top military and political officials. But Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against US military bases across the Middle East, and it targeted the energy infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors. Iran also deployed its most effective economic weapon: it closed the strait of Hormuz, through which more than a fifth of the world's oil supply passed each day. Economic Fallout: Global Disruption and Rising Oil Prices The closure of the Strait of Hormuz – along with Iranian attacks on pipelines and gas fields in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – disrupted the global economy and increased oil prices. In the US, average gas prices have jumped by 50%, up to nearly $4.50 per gallon, since Trump launched the war. Trump and his ally, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, could not topple the Islamic regime that rose to power after Iran's 1979 revolution. Instead, they ended up strengthening it – by allowing Tehran to deploy its geographic control of the strait of Hormuz into a weapon that could instigate a global energy crisis and a worldwide recession. The Emerging Deal: Limited Concessions and Unresolved Issues The emerging deal is focused on solving a problem that didn't exist before Trump started this war: fully reopening the strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping so that oil prices can stabilize. Under a draft agreement being circulated to US allies, Washington would also lift its blockade of Iranian ports and allow Tehran to access about $12bn in frozen assets. Once again, Trump seems to be aiming for a limited deal with Iran that defers the most difficult questions to future talks, which could drag out for months or even years. Iran's Resilience: Military Strength Preserved In some ways, Iran has emerged stronger after a war intended to decimate its military capabilities. A CIA report sent to Trump earlier this month found that Tehran had managed to retain a significant part of its missile capabilities. The analysis said Iran preserved about 70% of its prewar stockpile of missiles and about 75% of its mobile launchers. The report also concluded that Iran was more resilient than US officials had claimed, and it could survive a naval blockade for months. Political Calculations: Midterm Elections and Trump's Dilemma At his cabinet meeting, Trump said he didn't care about the midterm elections and wasn't in a rush to reach a deal. "It's got to be perfect," Trump told reporters, adding: "I didn't do this to get a crummy agreement." Despite his weak position, Trump insists that he will strike a better deal with Iran than the one negotiated by the Obama administration in 2015. That agreement provided Tehran with relief from international sanctions in exchange for limits on its nuclear enrichment. The Unintended Consequences: Strengthening the Adversary Trump could have avoided starting a regime-change war that failed, leaving the world to deal with its consequences. Instead, the master negotiator handed Iran a new economic weapon – and more leverage to extract a favorable deal. The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead. Trump wrote in his famous book. The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have.

The Inflation Conundrum For such an uncannily successful politician, Donald Trump exhibits a perplexing political myopia. His most recent own-goal was endorsing Ken Paxton, a state attorney general, against four-term senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary for Senate in Texas. Trump's Inflationary Gambits What truly screams “I want us to lose the midterms” is what Trump is doing about inflation, which is becoming his most vulnerable issue. According to a New York Times/Siena poll of registered voters earlier in May, Trump’s approval on handling the cost of living is underwater by 42 percentage points. The Data Analysis Inflation rose at the fastest pace in three years in April, driven by the Iran war and other factors. The nationwide average price of regular gasoline is hovering around $4.50 a gallon, about $1.30 higher than a year ago. Consumer prices increased 3.8% in the year to April, their highest annual rate in two years. The Impact Analysis People’s attitudes about inflation are difficult to parse. They think less about the alphabet of indices policymakers focus on, such as CPI and PCE, and more about how much the price of eggs and gas have risen since they last remembered. The Prediction This may not be statistically robust, but since George HW Bush lost to Bill Clinton in 1992, there has been only one presidential election in a year with inflation as high as it is today. The incumbent, George W Bush, lost to Barack Obama.

Iran is grappling with a deepening economic crisis as the costs of a prolonged conflict strain public finances and push the regime toward greater authoritarian measures. Ordinary Iranians are bearing the brunt of soaring prices, a collapsing currency and shrinking job prospects. The Economic Collapse Following the Conflict The war has drained state coffers, forcing the government to divert resources from social programs to military spending. This reallocation has reduced subsidies on essential goods, intensified shortages and heightened public discontent. Quantifying the Crisis: Inflation, Unemployment, and Currency Devaluation Inflation has accelerated sharply, with reports indicating double‑digit growth in consumer prices over the past year. Unemployment, especially among youth, has risen as private sector activity stalls under heavy sanctions and reduced investment. The national currency continues to lose value against major foreign currencies, eroding savings and import purchasing power. Regional and Global Implications of Iran’s Struggling Economy The economic turmoil is reshaping Iran’s regional posture. A financially strained regime may pursue more aggressive foreign policies to rally nationalist support, while neighboring markets feel pressure from disrupted trade flows and refugee movements. Outlook: Prospects for Reform or Further Decline Analysts warn that without substantial fiscal relief or a de‑escalation of hostilities, Iran’s economy could enter a prolonged downturn. Potential pathways include limited market reforms, renewed diplomatic engagement to ease sanctions, or continued reliance on state control, each carrying distinct risks for the population and the regime’s stability.

The 1994 World Cup in the United States was a turning point – a commercialised yet surprisingly raucous tournament that left a lasting impression on the author, who attended as a 23‑year‑old on a modest £9,000 salary.The 1994 World Cup’s Commercial Turn and Fan AtmosphereHosted on American soil for the first time, USA 1994 introduced a more expansive, commercialised model that contrasted sharply with the “couch‑potato” stereotypes of the era. Despite media fears of hooliganism and low‑brow audiences, the event delivered a lively, sometimes chaotic, but ultimately joyous experience for fans, from the tepid crowds in Boston to the electric Irish diaspora celebration in New York.Two matches attended were goalless draws, yet the atmosphere felt “occasionally raucous, often tepid”.British neutral supporters, such as Cardiff fans, helped spark a trend of curious, non‑partisan spectatorship.Ticket prices ranged from $25 (equivalent to $55 today) for a decent seat to $120 for premium access at Giants Stadium.Numbers That Shaped the Tournament: Attendance and Ticket PricesThe tournament set an enduring record for average attendance, with 68,991 spectators per match – a figure that still stands. The relatively low cost of entry allowed a broad cross‑section of fans, from immigrant communities to college students, to experience the World Cup live.Average crowd: 68,991 (World Cup finals record).Typical ticket price: $25 in 1994 ($55 adjusted for inflation).Premium Giants Stadium ticket: $120 each.How USA ’94 Redefined Global Football CultureBeyond the numbers, the tournament fostered a counter‑cultural vibe in the United States. Football was embraced by “convivial geeks and obsessives” and bolstered by immigrant enthusiasm. The Irish community’s celebration in New York turned a simple match into a diasporic festival, while the presence of British fans hinted at a future where World Cups would attract a more diverse, curious audience.These cultural shifts laid groundwork for later developments, such as the creation of Major League Soccer two years later and the massive commercial growth of subsequent tournaments.What the Legacy Means for Future World CupsThe author warns that soaring ticket prices and heightened security may erode the affordable, party‑like atmosphere that defined USA 1994. As future tournaments become more politically charged and financially demanding, the chance for “melting‑pot merriment” could diminish, making the 1994 experience a nostalgic benchmark for fans and organisers alike.