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Politics
May 30, 2026
Analyzed by Llama- 4 Scout 17B 16E Instruct

Inflation Won Trump the Presidency, But Could Cost Him the Midterms

AI Summary
Donald Trump's handling of inflation could cost him the midterms, as his approval ratings on the issue are significantly underwater. His policies, including tariffs and mass deportations, have contributed to rising prices.

The Inflation Conundrum

For such an uncannily successful politician, Donald Trump exhibits a perplexing political myopia. His most recent own-goal was endorsing Ken Paxton, a state attorney general, against four-term senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary for Senate in Texas.

Trump's Inflationary Gambits

What truly screams “I want us to lose the midterms” is what Trump is doing about inflation, which is becoming his most vulnerable issue. According to a New York Times/Siena poll of registered voters earlier in May, Trump’s approval on handling the cost of living is underwater by 42 percentage points.

The Data Analysis

  • Inflation rose at the fastest pace in three years in April, driven by the Iran war and other factors.
  • The nationwide average price of regular gasoline is hovering around $4.50 a gallon, about $1.30 higher than a year ago.
  • Consumer prices increased 3.8% in the year to April, their highest annual rate in two years.

The Impact Analysis

People’s attitudes about inflation are difficult to parse. They think less about the alphabet of indices policymakers focus on, such as CPI and PCE, and more about how much the price of eggs and gas have risen since they last remembered.

The Prediction

This may not be statistically robust, but since George HW Bush lost to Bill Clinton in 1992, there has been only one presidential election in a year with inflation as high as it is today. The incumbent, George W Bush, lost to Barack Obama.