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The temporary cease‑fire in the US‑Israel‑Iran war has given Iran and China a strategic opening to challenge the US dollar’s supremacy in global finance. Both nations share a common objective: to reduce reliance on the greenback, especially in the oil sector where, according to a 2023 JP Morgan estimate, roughly 80% of transactions are settled in dollars. In a practical step toward this goal, Iran’s de‑facto toll‑booth system in the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that handles about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments—has started accepting transit fees in Chinese yuan. Lloyd’s List reported that at least two vessels had already paid in yuan by March 25, and China’s Ministry of Commerce later acknowledged the reports on social media. Iran’s embassy in Zimbabwe even called for the introduction of a “petroyuan” to the global oil market, underscoring the political symbolism of the move. While Tehran pledged to guarantee safe passage for two weeks under a US‑brokered cease‑fire, Beijing declined to comment. Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff told Al Jazeera that Iran’s actions serve a dual purpose: they “poke a thumb in the United States’s eye” and provide a practical alternative to dollar‑based sanctions. Rogoff added that Iran’s shift to yuan aligns with China’s broader effort to redenominate trade among BRICS nations. For both countries, the yuan offers a way to sidestep US sanctions and lower transaction costs. Their trade relationship, cemented by a 25‑year strategic partnership signed in 2021, sees China buying over 80% of Iran’s oil—often at discounted rates—while Iran imports Chinese machinery, electronics, chemicals, and industrial components. Data from Kpler and TankerTrackers indicate that, despite the conflict, Iran’s oil exports to China have remained near pre‑war levels, ranging between 12 million and 13.7 million barrels in the first two weeks of hostilities. China’s ambition to elevate the yuan is long‑standing. President Xi Jinping, in a 2024 address, expressed hope that the yuan would become a global reserve currency. Yet significant hurdles remain: the yuan is not freely convertible due to strict capital controls, and the Chinese financial system is perceived as opaque, limiting broader adoption. According to the IMF, the dollar still dominated global foreign‑exchange reserves at 57% last year, far ahead of the euro’s 20% and the yuan’s modest 2%. Cross‑border trade settled in yuan rose to 3.7% in 2024, up from under 1% in 2012, per S&P; Global—an encouraging but limited shift. Natixis chief economist Alicia Garcia‑Herrero cautioned that the Strait of Hormuz experiment adds only “incremental pressure” and that a true “de‑dollarisation” would require Gulf states, which have priced oil in dollars since the 1970s in exchange for US security guarantees. European analyst Hosuk Lee‑Makiyama highlighted that China’s ability to supply Iran with essential goods makes the yuan a viable alternative, a dynamic not possible for Europe or Japan. He described China as the closest the world has seen to a “manufacturing one‑stop shop.” Consultancy founder Dan Steinbock echoed that while the dollar’s supremacy is unlikely to crumble overnight, the gradual increase in yuan usage could “chip away” at US dominance in specific sectors over time. Rogoff concluded that the long‑term impact hinges on the war’s outcome. If Iran and China emerge stronger, many countries may diversify away from the dollar to avoid US‑imposed financial constraints. Conversely, a decisive US victory could reinforce dollar hegemony for the foreseeable future.

Pakistan's diplomatic efforts have yielded a significant breakthrough, securing a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. The development comes after intense negotiations led by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir.The crisis had escalated to a point where Pakistan's government and military were deeply concerned about the potential consequences for the country's economy, defense, national security, and sectarian harmony. A defense pact with Saudi Arabia meant that if Riyadh entered the war, Pakistan would be drawn into it as well.Behind the scenes, Munir and Asim Malik, the country's head of army intelligence and national security adviser, played a crucial role in mediating the ceasefire. Munir's strong personal rapport with US President Donald Trump and his longstanding relationship with Iran's Revolutionary Guards were instrumental in brokering the deal.China emerged as a key player in the negotiations, with Pakistani officials claiming that Beijing directly encouraged Iran to accept a ceasefire, promising to act as a guarantor of Iran's safety in any talks. This included assurances that Iranian leaders would not be assassinated if they traveled for negotiations.The ceasefire deal was secured by 4am in Islamabad, with both the US and Iran agreeing to a temporary and fragile truce. Michael Kugelman, south Asia fellow at the Atlantic council, described it as Pakistan's 'biggest diplomatic win in years'.Pakistani officials have expressed concerns that Israel and the United Arab Emirates could still try to sabotage the peace process. However, the successful brokering of the ceasefire has been hailed as a 'shining moment' in Pakistan's history and a 'first step' towards peace.

Afghanistan has deemed the peace talks with Pakistan, facilitated by China, as 'useful' in addressing the ongoing conflict between the two nations.The talks, which began on April 1 in the western Chinese city of Urumqi, aim to stop the violence that started in February, resulting in hundreds of deaths and significant concern for Beijing due to its proximity to western Chinese regions.The conflict escalated after Pakistan conducted air strikes inside Afghanistan, including in the capital Kabul, leading to accusations from Afghanistan of civilian casualties, including children.The situation has drawn international alarm, particularly given the presence of other armed groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS in the region.94,000 people have been displaced overall, with 100,000 individuals in two Afghan districts near the border completely cut off due to the fighting since February.Afghanistan's Foreign Ministry has expressed gratitude to China for hosting the talks and acknowledged the mediation efforts of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.Despite the talks, Afghanistan has continued to accuse Pakistan of shelling across its border, killing and wounding civilians, while Pakistan denies these allegations and instead accuses Afghanistan of providing a safe haven to armed groups like the Pakistan Taliban (TTP).

A Malta‑flagged container ship named Kribi, owned by French shipping giant CMA CGM, successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz on April 2. This marks the first time a Western‑registered vessel has traversed the strategic waterway since Iran began restricting traffic following the US‑Israeli war that started on February 28.According to vessel‑tracking data from Marine Traffic, the Kribi is the first French‑owned ship to make the passage in the current conflict. The ship, sailing south along Oman’s coast, altered its declared destination to “Owner France” in LSEG shipping data, a move interpreted as a signal to Iranian authorities about its national affiliation before entering Iran’s territorial waters.The vessel was originally bound for Pointe‑Noire, Republic of the Congo, but the change in routing facilitated the safe crossing. No immediate comment was received from CMA CGM regarding the maneuver.Since March 1, only about 150 vessels—including tankers and container ships—have transited the strait, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. The majority were linked to Iran and to regional partners such as China, India and Pakistan. Beijing publicly expressed gratitude after three Chinese ships, including two Cosco‑owned container vessels, passed through the waterway earlier in the week.The strait historically carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Its effective blockage has contributed to a sharp rise in worldwide fuel prices, intensifying the ongoing energy crisis.U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that gasoline prices would drop quickly once hostilities end, but offered no concrete plan to reopen the passage, instead urging skeptical allies to take action themselves. French President Emmanuel Macron cautioned that a military operation to force open the strait would be unrealistic, emphasizing that only diplomatic efforts could restore free navigation.Macron is coordinating with European and other partners to form a coalition that would guarantee safe passage after the conflict subsides. In a commentary for *Foreign Affairs*, former Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif suggested Tehran could negotiate a deal with the United States—curbing its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and the reopening of the strait—thereby ending the war and preventing future confrontations.

The ongoing conflict between Iran and the US-Israeli alliance has sent shockwaves through global oil markets, with Brent crude prices surging 5% to $106.16 per barrel on Thursday morning. Despite being heavily reliant on Iranian oil, China appears to have largely insulated itself from the crisis.China's strategy involves utilizing 'teapot refineries,' small, privately owned oil refineries primarily based in Shandong province. These facilities have been importing discounted Iranian and Russian oil, accounting for one-quarter of China's processing capacity. This approach allows China to circumvent US sanctions and maintain a stable oil supply.China's teapot refineries have been stockpiling oil reserves, providing a buffer against potential supply disruptions. According to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, China's seaborne crude imports in March stood at 10.19 million barrels per day (mbd), down from 11.51mbd in February but still in line with the 2025 average of 10.41mbd.The US has previously imposed sanctions on some of these teapot refineries for importing Iranian oil. However, China's tolerance of this independent system has proved strategically useful, allowing the country to maintain a flexible buffer for bargain barrels during crises.Experts note that while China's measures will not completely immunize the country from rising fuel prices, they do provide Beijing with more flexibility to survive a crisis compared with other nations. China's approach involves aggressive stockpiling, tolerating shadow networks, and keeping flexible buffers, demonstrating its preparedness for energy shocks.

Several readers have voiced alarm over the unfolding US‑Israel war on Iran, describing it as a chaotic and unjustified conflict that threatens regional stability and global order.One contributor likens the situation to a “spectacle of two rogue nations armed with nuclear weapons fighting to prevent a third from acquiring similar capabilities,” warning that the resulting chaos could embolden other territorial disputes, from China’s claim on Taiwan to Argentina’s claim on the Falklands. The writer urges individuals to emulate the anti‑apartheid boycott campaign, suggesting a coordinated boycott of US and Israeli products and a disengagement from the upcoming FIFA World Cup as potential levers to pressure the belligerents.Another letter critiques the tone of the original editorial, arguing that the war’s justification—purported nuclear compliance and regime change—was merely “grist to throw into the media mill.” The author characterises President Trump’s approach as a personal crusade, describing it as a “hyperbolic truth” that seeks to vent anger and claim divine credit, with the war ending only when Trump’s interest wanes.A third commentator questions the UK’s role, noting that despite initial resistance, British bases have quietly accommodated US and Israeli forces, mirroring the pattern seen in Gaza. The writer warns that the conflict could inflict a “disaster for our economy and that of Europe” that may last for years, calling the war both “immoral” and “illegal” and urging a policy reversal.Concern is also expressed about China’s silence. Citing a recent Guardian editorial, a reader points out that Beijing’s proclaimed “major‑country diplomacy” has not translated into constructive mediation, similar to its restrained stance on the Ukraine war. The letter argues that the global benefits of peace outweigh any short‑term advantage China might gain from allowing two wars to continue, and calls on allies of China to press the government into action.Collectively, these letters highlight a growing perception that the war in Iran is driven more by political posturing than by clear strategic objectives, and they advocate for a combination of economic pressure, public dissent, and diplomatic engagement to halt the escalation.

Pakistan reaffirmed its commitment to steer the United States and Iran back to the negotiating table, even as it faces "obstacles" that were not disclosed by Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi during a weekly briefing in Islamabad.The statement came hours after U.S. President Donald Trump warned he would bomb Iran "back to the Stone Ages" if Tehran rejected Washington’s peace terms, underscoring the volatile backdrop to Pakistan’s diplomatic push.Andrabi emphasized that Pakistan will continue to "promote facilitation and dialogue" and is working to create conditions for meaningful negotiations among relevant stakeholders. He noted that both Washington and Tehran view Pakistan as a neutral intermediary.In a tangible sign of confidence, Iran has permitted 20 Pakistani‑flagged vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Andrabi described this as "a harbinger of peace" and a positive step for regional stability, though he did not confirm whether any ships have already sailed.The Hormuz corridor has been largely blocked since Iran curtailed oil and gas shipments after the outbreak of the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict on February 28, driving up energy prices and straining economies across the region.High‑level contact between Islamabad and Tehran continues. Andrabi cited a March 28 call between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, during which both leaders stressed the need to "build trust" and praised Pakistan’s "supportive role for peace".Regional diplomacy intensified after Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar returned from Beijing, where he met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The two sides produced a joint five‑point initiative calling for an immediate ceasefire, urgent diplomatic engagement, and the restoration of normal maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.Andrabi said the China‑Pakistan proposal has been shared with the United States, Iran and other stakeholders, receiving appreciation "across the region and beyond". The plan aligns with outcomes from a four‑nation ministerial meeting in Islamabad that included Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt.Despite a hairline fracture sustained during the Islamabad talks, Dar travelled to Beijing, underscoring Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China. He later announced that Pakistan is ready to host direct US‑Iran negotiations in the coming days, a proposal reiterated by Andrabi at the briefing.While Pakistan positions itself as a facilitator, Andrabi acknowledged that Iran has so far limited mediation to indirect messages and has not committed to direct talks, stating, "Iran, as a sovereign country, determines its own policies."In a separate diplomatic track, Pakistan sent senior officials to Urumqi, China, for discussions with Afghanistan – the first substantive contact since Islamabad launched cross‑border strikes in late February. Andrabi stressed that Afghanistan must demonstrate "visible and verifiable actions" against terrorist groups operating from its territory.Pakistan continues its Operation Ghazab lil‑Haq, launched on February 26 to target terrorist sanctuaries in Afghanistan after alleged cross‑border fire from Taliban forces. Following a five‑day Eid‑ul‑Fitr pause, the operation remains ongoing.Islamabad accuses the Taliban‑run Kabul government of allowing the Tehrik‑i‑Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to use Afghan soil for attacks inside Pakistan, a claim the Afghan side denies. China has also facilitated Pakistan‑Afghanistan engagement, hosting meetings in Beijing and Kabul earlier in the year.

Pakistan and Afghanistan have confirmed they are holding talks in China aimed at ending the worst conflict between the South Asian neighbours since the Afghan Taliban returned to power in 2021.Senior officials from both countries are holding preliminary talks in the northwestern Chinese city of Urumqi to try to secure a ceasefire to end months of cross-border attacks, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi said on Thursday.The fighting has killed dozens of people on both sides and disrupted trade and cross-border travel since it started in October.Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of harbouring fighters who carry out attacks inside Pakistan, especially the Pakistani Taliban, known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The group is separate from but allied with the Afghan Taliban, which took over Afghanistan in 2021 following the chaotic withdrawal of United States-led troops.Andrabi told reporters in Beijing that the government hoped for a “durable solution”.“Our participation [in talks] is a reiteration of our core concerns,” he said.“The burden of real process, however, lies with Afghanistan, which must demonstrate visible and verifiable actions against terrorist groups using [its] soil against Pakistan.”Following China’s request for talks, Afghanistan’s Taliban government said it had sent a “mid-level delegation” to Urumqi.The Afghan side “intends to hold comprehensive and responsible talks with the other side on good neighbourliness, strengthening trade relations, and effective management of security issues”, Foreign Ministry spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi said.Pakistan described the negotiations as “working-level talks”.“Our delegation has not returned yet,” Islamabad’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said.China, which also borders both countries, has been trying to mediate a negotiated settlement to the conflict.Beijing deployed a special envoy to try to broker a deal last month, but the diplomatic effort was followed by Pakistani strikes on a Kabul rehab centre that prompted international condemnation.More than 400 people were killed in the attack, according to Afghan officials. Islamabad said the strike targeted military installations and “terrorist support infrastructure”.The two sides then announced a pause in fighting to mark the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, at the request of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye.But sporadic attacks have been reported in border areas since the temporary truce ended.

It's been 12 months since Donald Trump's 'liberation day' on April 2, 2025, when the US president introduced tariffs on nearly every country the US did business with. The move sent shockwaves through the global economy, causing chaos in Washington and beyond. Experts say that if Trump had spent the last 14 months on the golf course instead of in the White House, the US economy would be in a better place. The wholesale slashing of government jobs and defunding of US aid agencies had already signaled that Trump was in a hurry to upset institutions he considered profligate or useless. Investors quickly understood that chaos was an essential tool in Trump's armoury. Almost as soon as he was inaugurated, there was a steady decline in the value of the dollar against other currencies. Investors sold assets denominated in dollars and bought assets elsewhere: Europe, Asia, South America. Dario Perkins, the head of global research at the consultancy TS Lombard, said: 'If you think that discouraging investors from buying assets in the US is a victory, then you don’t believe in a growing economy.' He added that Trump's policies had led to a decline in US manufacturing jobs and a growing trade deficit. The data supports Perkins' claims. US companies stopped hiring almost as soon as liberation day was announced. Significant revisions in February to data covering 2025 pushed payroll employment down by 403,000 jobs, resulting in the addition of just 181,000 jobs last year. This small boost is set against the 163 million people who are employed in the US. Russ Mould, the investment director of the British stockbroker AJ Bell, said: 'America is still home to the world’s largest economy and its reserve currency, as well as the globe’s largest equity and bond markets, but investors continue to reassess their exposure one year on from liberation day.' The next few months of steadily increasing confidence levels followed probably the calmest period in the second Trump presidency. But sentiment began to fall again in the autumn as the White House battled with Congress over the federal budget deficit and much of the public sector was shut down. A poll by the University of Michigan showed consumer confidence at a near record low at the end of 2025. A six-month moving average produced by the Conference Board showed every generation, from baby boomers to gen Xers, had lost confidence in the economy over the past year. Trump’s liberation day executive order stated: 'The decline of US manufacturing capacity threatens the US economy in other ways, including through the loss of manufacturing jobs.' However, the US manufacturing sector shed 100,000 jobs between January 2025 and March 2026. The ratio of manufacturing workers to total nonfarm employment fell to the lowest point since 1939. Bryan Riley, the director of the National Taxpayers Union Foundation’s free trade initiative, said: 'One year after liberation day, the evidence is in. Tariffs failed even by the Trump administration’s own terms. They did not shrink the trade deficit, did not revitalise manufacturing and did not help farmers. It would be a mistake to replace one set of failed tariffs with another.' Some major US companies have redirected their investments to Europe, but China has proved to be one of the main beneficiaries. In the year to February 2026, China’s industrial profits increased by 15.2%. It's a boom that Beijing will struggle to repeat should Chinese companies face fuel and energy shortages and price hikes. But the decline of two major powers can only be to China’s gain.