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Europe is undergoing a significant transformation in its relationship with the US, marked by a growing desire for independence and a shift away from Trump's aggressive policies. The recent crisis in the Middle East, where Trump's threat to annihilate Iranian civilisation was temporarily called off, has been a turning point in this journey. Initially, many European leaders had tacitly supported the US and Israeli attack on Iran, driven by a desire for a transatlantic detente and antipathy towards the Iranian regime. However, as the war escalated, Europe's stance began to shift, with countries like Italy, Poland, and France taking steps to distance themselves from Trump's policies. The cooling of European support for the war has taken various forms, including Italy denying US warplanes permission to use an airbase in Sicily, Poland refusing to send Patriot air defence systems to the Middle East, and France rejecting overflight rights and opposing a US-sponsored resolution at the UN security council. This shift in European policy is driven by a number of factors, including the realisation that the war has been a windfall for Russia, through higher oil prices and a depletion of air defence interceptors available to Ukraine. European leaders have also been reminded that the erosion of international law is bad news for the world, Europe included. As Europe finds its footing in distancing itself from Trump, it may also find its voice. Europe's diplomatic role in the Iranian nuclear file in the early 2000s grew out of its opposition to the Iraq war. Today, the same dynamic could unfold, with Europe promoting a permanent end of hostilities and a multilateral initiative in the region. The proposal by a group of European, Gulf, and Asian countries to contribute to ensuring safe passage through the strait of Hormuz was originally aimed at placating Trump. Europeans then backed a UN-led fertiliser corridor to prevent a food crisis in the global south. The UK is also leading a coalition of more than 40 countries seeking to reopen the strait once the US and Israel definitively end their offensive. If a sustainable reopening of Hormuz succeeds, it could eventually extend to a new nuclear agreement, a non-aggression pact between the US and Iran, and a similar one between Israel and Iran – including Lebanon. It could involve the release of Iranian funds frozen abroad to rebuild infrastructure destroyed by US and Israeli attacks, and the selective lifting of EU and US sanctions.

At least 50 new accounts on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, made substantial bets on a US-Iran ceasefire on Tuesday, resulting in profits of hundreds of thousands of dollars. These bets were placed despite escalating rhetoric from Donald Trump and few signals of an imminent deal.An analysis of blockchain data shows that one wallet, created on Tuesday at 10am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8¢ and cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another wallet, which joined the platform on April 6, won $125,500.The trading pattern of newly created accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets has raised questions about insider trading and the need for regulation in prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators and representatives have introduced legislation to broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.“This is why these markets need regulation,” said Todd Phillips, a professor at Georgia State University. “We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”Polymarket and other industry players, including Kalshi, have acknowledged the need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms.

Pakistan's diplomatic efforts culminated in a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, agreed upon just hours before US President Donald Trump's deadline to destroy Iran's 'civilisation'. The ceasefire was announced by Trump on his social media platform, Truth Social, and confirmed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.The breakthrough was facilitated by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, who engaged in extensive diplomacy with both sides. Sharif publicly announced the ceasefire, inviting both delegations to Islamabad for further negotiations. The talks are expected to begin on Friday, potentially involving a US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance.The conflict, which began on February 28, had killed over 2,000 people in Iran and disrupted roughly a fifth of the world's oil supplies. Pakistan's role as a mediator was seen as a significant diplomatic achievement, with both Washington and Tehran acknowledging its efforts.The ceasefire is not a peace deal, and key differences remain unresolved, including Iran's uranium enrichment and the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts view Pakistan's role as a major shift in its diplomatic efforts, positioning itself at the centre of a significant diplomatic initiative.

US President Donald Trump's recent statements threatening Iran have raised concerns about the potential consequences for global power and regional stability. Trump's vow to 'wipe out' Iran has been met with warnings of a potentially catastrophic impact on the region.The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has become a focal point in the tensions between the US and Iran. The US has been pressing Iran to open the strait, which has led to a significant escalation in rhetoric between the two nations.Experts warn that such brinkmanship could have far-reaching consequences, potentially reshaping global power dynamics and impacting the stability of the Middle East. The situation remains volatile, with many concerned about the potential for conflict.Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, provides insight into the complexities of the situation and the potential implications for US foreign policy.

As the clock ticked down to President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the six‑week Middle East conflict teetered on the brink of a far more devastating escalation.Trump’s rhetoric had escalated dramatically, with his Truth Social posts warning that the United States would unleash strikes capable of “decimating every bridge and power plant in Iran” and that “a whole civilisation will die tonight.” Legal experts labeled the language as bordering on a genocidal threat.Amid the rising tension, a series of rapid developments unfolded on Tuesday:12:06 GMT – Trump announced a plan to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure, promising total destruction of bridges and power facilities.15:21 GMT – Iranian media confirmed that US strikes hit Kharg Island, the nation’s primary oil‑export hub, but reported no significant damage.15:40 GMT – In the UN Security Council, China and Russia vetoed a Bahraini resolution aimed at protecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, arguing the draft was biased against Tehran.16:54 GMT – Qatar’s defence ministry reported a successful missile interception, while the United Arab Emirates warned of a barrage of missile and drone attacks.18:23 GMT – Iran’s envoy to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, signalled a “step forward” after a “critical, sensitive stage,” praising Pakistan’s “positive and productive” peace efforts.19:17 GMT – Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif appealed to Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks, urging Tehran to keep the Strait open as a goodwill gesture.20:25 GMT – Iran warned it would target US and Gulf‑allied energy infrastructure, threatening to block regional oil and gas supplies for years.20:41 GMT – Joint US‑Israeli airstrikes struck the Amirkabir Petrochemical Plant in Mahshahr, Iran, prompting local assessments of damage.With less than ninety minutes remaining, diplomatic channels intensified. Pakistani officials, including the military chief Asim Munir, facilitated talks that culminated in a two‑week, double‑sided cease‑fire announced by Trump at 22:45 GMT. The United States claimed to have received a “workable” 10‑point proposal from Tehran.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quickly confirmed the truce, stating Iran would honor it provided attacks on its territory ceased. Sharif then invited both Iranian and US delegations to Islamabad for further negotiations aimed at a permanent settlement.Early Wednesday, Trump’s tone shifted dramatically. In a Truth Social post he hailed the cease‑fire as a potential “Golden Age for the Middle East,” celebrating the pause in hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.The episode underscores how last‑minute diplomacy, spearheaded by Pakistan, averted a catastrophic escalation and opened a narrow window for a broader peace process in a region long mired in conflict.

Iran and the United States each declared a triumph after agreeing to a two‑week ceasefire that was announced just before President Donald Trump’s deadline to force Tehran’s surrender. The conflict, which began on 28 February, has already claimed 2,076 lives in U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran and has caused thousands more deaths across the region. The fighting has also shocked global energy markets, stranding oil tankers and pushing prices to unprecedented levels. Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would halt bombing Iran after receiving a “workable” 10‑point ceasefire proposal, adding that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to.” Iran, for its part, said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, even as some citizens denounced the government’s perceived capitulation. Both parties are set to resume Pakistan‑mediated talks in Islamabad on Friday, though analysts warn that earlier red lines may resurface. Key terms of the Tuesday agreement: the United States will suspend air strikes for two weeks, citing that it has already achieved its military objectives and is close to a “definitive agreement concerning long‑term peace.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, pledged to halt “defensive operations” and to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while also indicating willingness to fund reconstruction from fees collected on transiting ships. Domestic reaction in Iran remains volatile. University of Tehran professor Foad Izadi noted that the public’s pessimism stems from two prior escalations—June’s 12‑day war and the February 28 strikes—both of which occurred amid ongoing negotiations. Earlier demands: The United States had presented a 15‑point plan on 25 March, calling for a 30‑day ceasefire, immediate reopening of the Strait, Iran’s de‑commissioning of its nuclear facilities, a total ban on uranium enrichment, handover of nuclear stockpiles to the IAEA, cessation of support to regional proxies, strict limits on ballistic missiles, and a full lift of sanctions, among other items. Iran responded with a 10‑point proposal that emphasized a non‑aggression commitment from the United States, controlled passage through the Strait, acceptance of its enrichment programme, comprehensive sanctions relief, withdrawal of U.S. combat forces, compensation for war damages via shipping fees, and a binding UN Security Council resolution. Both sides have already made concessions. Iran moved from demanding a permanent ceasefire to accepting a two‑week pause, and it shifted from insisting on reparations to proposing reconstruction funding from Strait fees. The United States, meanwhile, has softened its demand for an “unconditional” Iranian surrender and has not reiterated its earlier insistence on dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities. One of the most contentious issues remains the status of Lebanon. While Pakistan’s prime minister said the ceasefire would extend to Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied any such inclusion, and Israel launched a major bombing campaign in Beirut shortly thereafter, killing hundreds. Looking ahead, analysts highlight that the United States is unlikely to concede on the complete withdrawal of its roughly 50,000 troops stationed across 19 Middle Eastern sites—a demand Tehran has placed on the table. The outcome of the upcoming talks will hinge on whether Washington can accommodate Tehran’s broader political and economic requests without compromising its strategic objectives.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced on Wednesday that the United States had achieved a "decisive" military victory over Iran, claiming the Iranian missile programme has been "functionally destroyed." Speaking alongside General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Hegseth described the operation—codenamed Operation Epic Fury—as a "historic and overwhelming" triumph that met every objective, including the dismantling of Iran’s navy, air‑defence systems and missile‑production capability. The declaration came a day after President Donald Trump stepped back from a threatened full‑scale assault on Iran, just two hours before a self‑imposed deadline for Tehran to reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. The resulting cease‑fire agreement stipulates that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon and that the United States will monitor the country’s enriched uranium stockpiles. While Hegseth emphasized that "they can still shoot here and there, but that would be very unwise," he also warned that US forces will remain in the region to ensure compliance with the two‑week cease‑fire and to oversee the safe transit of vessels through the strategic waterway. Iran’s response was equally emphatic. The Supreme National Security Council, cited by IRNA, congratulated the Iranian people on a "victory" and urged perseverance until the details of that victory are finalized. The council highlighted Iran’s alliances with the so‑called "axis of resistance" in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and occupied Palestine, claiming the coalition has delivered blows to the enemy over the past 40 days. At the same briefing, General Caine confirmed that US military objectives in Iran have been met, but framed the cease‑fire as a "pause" rather than a permanent end to hostilities, noting that forces remain ready to resume combat if necessary. In parallel diplomatic developments, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday or Friday, contingent on a cease‑fire framework being reached ahead of a scheduled US‑Iran meeting in Pakistan. The closure of the strait has previously disrupted global oil and gas markets, making its reopening a critical economic signal. Trita Parsi, vice‑president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that President Trump needed an exit from a war he described as "an absolute disaster" and that the next two weeks are "crucial" for any genuine diplomatic opening, though he cautioned that the situation is not yet resolved. Analysts note that the cease‑fire’s success will hinge on Iran’s willingness to allow unfettered navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and on US verification of Iran’s uranium holdings. The coming fortnight will test whether the declared victory translates into lasting stability in a volatile region.

President Donald Trump has stated that Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, contradicting Pakistan's claim that the truce covers the entire region. This development comes after Israel launched a massive assault on Lebanon, resulting in hundreds of casualties in densely populated areas.Trump described the Israeli conflict with Hezbollah as a “separate skirmish,” indicating that the US-Iran agreement does not extend to Lebanon due to Hezbollah's presence. “Because of Hezbollah, they were not included in the deal,” he told PBS. “That’ll get taken care of, too. It’s all right.”The exclusion of Lebanon from the truce risks jeopardizing the ceasefire across the region. Iranian news outlets have reported that Tehran may take serious steps in response to the Israeli attacks, including potentially suspending oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iranian officials have not confirmed these reports.Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had announced that the two-week truce covers the entire region, specifically mentioning Lebanon. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that attacks against Lebanon would continue, despite the US-Iran agreement.Israel's recent assault on Lebanon has compounded the humanitarian and displacement crises, with over 1.2 million people forced to flee their homes. The attacks included a strike on a funeral in the Bekaa Valley town of Shmestar, killing at least 20 people. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called on the international community to intervene and end the aggressions.

The recent two-week ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump in the war on Iran has sent shockwaves through Israel. The move has been met with criticism from Israel's opposition leader, Yair Lapid, who called it one of the greatest 'political disasters in all of our history'. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office issued a statement supporting the US decision, claiming that 'Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat to America, Israel, Iran's Arab neighbours and the world.' However, Netanyahu's war aims of preventing 'Iran from developing nuclear weapons' and creating 'the conditions for the Iranian people so they can remove the cruel regime of tyranny' remain unachieved.Despite significant military successes over the past 40 days of attacks on Iran, neither of Netanyahu's goals has been achieved. The Iranian regime is still in place, its ballistic missile programme could be rebuilt quickly, and it still has 440kg of enriched uranium at 60 percent purity, enough for 10 bombs.Analysts say that Iran has emerged stronger as a result of the war, with key victories including the survival of the Iranian government and its decision to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's key energy arteries. The ceasefire has also given Iran an opportunity to continue with newly imposed levies on ships for safe passage through the Strait.Criticism of Netanyahu's handling of the war has been swift, with Ofer Cassif of the left-wing Hadash party saying that the prime minister has 'failed politically, failed strategically, and didn't meet a single one of the goals that he himself set'. Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at the Department for War Studies at King's College London, said that 'Israel achieved almost nothing tangible' and that the ceasefire has 'strained the US relationship'.