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The latest analysis shows that the US‑Israeli strike on Iran and the ensuing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could impose as much as a $1 trillion in extra costs on the global economy, even as oil majors like BP report record first‑quarter earnings. The Looming $1 Trillion Economic Burden from the Middle East Oil Crunch The conflict has tightened supplies of crude and gas, pushing prices to levels not seen since the early 2000s. 350.org, citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, estimates that if the Hormuz bottleneck persists, the cumulative hit to households, businesses and governments could exceed $1 tn. Even a swift return to normal flows would still leave an added cost of roughly $600 bn. IMF‑Backed Numbers: $600 bn to $1 tn Added Costs and Oil Giants’ Double‑Digit Profit Surge Baseline cost if Hormuz reopens quickly: ~$600 bn worldwide. Worst‑case scenario (prolonged disruption): > $1 tn in extra economic burden. BP’s Q1 profit: more than doubled year‑on‑year, driven by higher oil and gas prices. Industry profit margins: some majors earning upwards of $30 m per hour from the war‑induced price spike. Why the Crisis Deepens Global Inequality and Fuels Climate Backlash The surge in energy prices ripples through food, fertilizer and transport costs, amplifying inflation in vulnerable economies. Leaders from the Marshall Islands and Malawi warned that the crisis forces emergency measures, cuts to essential services, and threatens progress on climate resilience. Activists at the Santa Marta conference highlighted the stark contrast between soaring oil profits and the growing hardship of ordinary people. What Comes Next: Calls for Windfall Taxes and Accelerated Renewable Transition 350.org and a coalition of civil‑society groups are urging governments to impose a windfall tax on excess oil profits, directing the revenue toward social protection and renewable‑energy investments. The Santa Marta gathering, attended by over 50 nations, pledged to scale up renewable deployment and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. If such policies gain traction, the next few quarters could see a shift in capital from oil majors to clean‑energy projects, reshaping the global energy landscape.

The Departure of a 'Working Machine': Sesko Laments Casemiro's ExitBenjamin Sesko has publicly lamented the impending departure of Casemiro, describing the Brazilian midfielder as an indispensable 'working machine' whose leadership and experience will be sorely missed as Manchester United secure Champions League qualification.A Final Tribute on the PitchDuring a commanding performance in a 2-1 victory over Brentford, Casemiro delivered one last statement of intent before his exit. The match was pivotal, as the win ensured Manchester United would secure Champions League qualification, a feat achieved despite the midfielder's impending departure.The Carrick Factor and United's ResurgenceUnited's form under interim manager Michael Carrick has been statistically impressive. The team has won nine of their last 13 Premier League games, accumulating more points in this period than any other club. This surge has created an 11-point cushion in the race for the top four.Leadership Void and Mentorship LossSesko highlighted the specific qualities Casemiro brings beyond just footballing ability. The 22-year-old striker emphasized that Casemiro sets a standard for work rate and professionalism that younger players must emulate. His departure leaves a significant gap in the dressing room's culture.The Search for a New EngineAs United look to the summer transfer window, replacing a player of Casemiro's caliber—defined by his 'working machine' mentality—will be a top priority. The club must find a player who can not only provide defensive solidity but also maintain the high standards of leadership Carrick has helped instill.

In a climate where climate denial, vaccine skepticism and "alternative facts" dominate headlines, Helen Pearson shows that the tide of evidence‑based practice is still rising. Drawing on five years of interviews with over 200 experts, she offers concrete steps for citizens, educators and policymakers to push back against the growing rejection of science. The Rise of Anti‑Science Rhetoric in Politics and Public Health Recent statements from high‑profile figures have amplified doubt: Donald Trump labeled climate change a "con job", while U.S. health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has slashed 25,000 staff positions at science agencies and publicly undermined vaccines. In the UK, only 40% of respondents believe information about science is "generally true". These attacks echo the 1992 backlash against evidence‑based medicine, when a small group of doctors faced accusations of "dangerous innovation". Numbers Showing Declining Trust and Funding Cuts Public trust in scientific institutions fell from 58% in 2018 to 40% in 2025 (Ipsos UK). U.S. federal science staffing reduced by 12% between 2022‑2025, equating to 25,000 jobs lost. Investment in AI‑driven evidence synthesis reached $126 million in 2025, signaling a counter‑trend toward better access to research. Over 70% of English school leaders now report using research to guide decisions, up from 45% in 2010. Evidence‑based anti‑poverty programmes have impacted an estimated 850 million lives worldwide. Why the Erosion of Evidence Matters Across Sectors The decline in trust is not just an abstract concern; it directly affects health outcomes, climate action and economic policy. When citizens reject vaccine data, disease outbreaks become more likely, increasing healthcare costs. Climate denial stalls emissions‑reduction legislation, jeopardizing global temperature targets. In education, ignoring rigorous studies on tutoring and phonics can widen achievement gaps. What Experts Predict for the Future of Evidence‑Based Decision‑Making AI‑powered synthesis tools like Consensus will become mainstream, allowing anyone to query a database of >250 million papers within seconds. Curricula that embed critical‑thinking and "evidence literacy" are expected to be adopted in at least 60% of OECD schools by 2030. Funding bodies are likely to tie grant eligibility to open‑access data sharing, accelerating transparency. Grass‑roots fact‑checking networks will grow, with community‑led platforms verifying claims in real time. Ultimately, Pearson reminds readers that science is a human endeavour—messy, iterative, and sometimes uncertain—but its collective weight still outpaces anecdote. By asking for evidence, checking peer review, and supporting institutions that champion rigorous research, individuals can help tip the balance toward reason.

The Lead: Iraq's New Political ChapterIraq has officially appointed a new prime minister-designate, marking a significant transition in the country's political landscape. This appointment comes as Iraq continues to navigate complex challenges including security concerns, economic recovery, and regional influence.The Appointment: Shaping Iraq's Future LeadershipThe newly designated prime minister faces the formidable task of forming a government capable of addressing Iraq's pressing issues. The selection process involved extensive negotiations among political factions, reflecting Iraq's complex power-sharing arrangements. The prime minister-designate will need to secure parliamentary approval and form a cabinet that represents Iraq's diverse ethnic and religious groups.The Political Landscape: Power Dynamics in BaghdadThis appointment occurs against a backdrop of shifting political alliances in Iraq. The country's political system is characterized by a delicate balance between Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish factions, each with its own interests and priorities. The new prime minister-designate will need to navigate these complex relationships to build a functional government capable of addressing Iraq's challenges.Regional Implications: Iraq's Position in the Middle EastAs a key player in the Middle East, Iraq's political developments have significant regional implications. The new leadership will need to balance relations with neighboring countries while addressing internal security concerns. Iraq's stance on regional conflicts, economic partnerships, and diplomatic engagements will be closely watched by international observers and neighboring states.Economic Challenges: Rebuilding Iraq's InfrastructureBeyond political considerations, the new prime minister-designate inherits significant economic challenges. Iraq faces the dual tasks of rebuilding infrastructure damaged by years of conflict and diversifying its economy beyond oil dependency. The government will need to address unemployment, corruption, and public services to improve the quality of life for Iraqi citizens.Future Outlook: Path to StabilityThe coming months will be critical for Iraq's political trajectory. The success of the new government in forming a stable coalition and addressing pressing issues will determine whether Iraq can achieve lasting stability and prosperity. International partners will likely continue to support Iraq's democratic transition while respecting the country's sovereignty and political processes.

The Lead An important Islamic seminary in Kashmir has been declared unlawful under anti-terror laws, prompting backlash from prominent religious and political leaders in the Indian-administered territory. Seminary Under Scrutiny Kashmir Divisional Commissioner Anshul Garg issued the order based on a police dossier that alleged “sustained and covert links” between the seminary, Jamia Siraj-ul-Uloom, and the banned political party Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), local media reported. The seminary, one of the largest in southern Kashmir, is recognised by the Jammu and Kashmir Board of School Education and has over 800 students. The Data Analysis The seminary has more than 800 students and has “produced doctors, scholars and professionals from homes that could never afford private education”. The move was handed down under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA), a much-criticised law that allows authorities to designate someone a “terrorist” without evidence. The Impact Analysis Leaders in Muslim-majority Kashmir criticised the move as part of an ongoing campaign of overreach by New Delhi. “Declaring Jamia Siraj-ul-Uloom ‘unlawful’ under UAPA is the latest act in a calculated dismantling of Kashmir’s civic life,” wrote Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, a member of Jammu and Kashmir parliament, on X. The Prediction The decision is likely to escalate tensions in the region, where Kashmiri leaders have pushed back against what they describe as a curtailing of religious and other freedoms. Kashmir voters elected local officials in 2024, in the first elections in a decade. However, most powers remain with the New Delhi-appointed lieutenant governor, including control over police, public order and the transfer and posting of officials.

The Lead Two months into the war between Iran and the US-Israel alliance, much has changed for Iranian authorities and the 90 million people in the country. However, some elements of how Iran works and who controls key decisions have only become more entrenched. Leadership Changes Despite US President Donald Trump's claims of 'regime change' following the killing of several high-ranking officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the main institutions of the Islamic Republic remain in place. Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the former supreme leader, was quickly elected as his successor by a clerical body. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to play a significant role in military operations, economic management, and maintaining armed control on the streets. The judiciary, parliament, and state television remain under the influence of hardline factions. Shifts in Political Position Iranian authorities have not reached a consensus to grant concessions required by Trump, as they believe it would amount to capitulation. The IRGC and traditional army remain prepared to launch missiles and drones at regional countries and US forces if necessary. Iran's latest proposal to the US is to postpone discussing the country's nuclear program. The IRGC and state media emphasize the importance of the Strait of Hormuz and managing it with Oman. Differences in Domestic Policy The Iranian establishment faces complex problems at home, including a struggling economy with high inflation and significant damage from intense bombardment. The government has prioritized procuring food and medicine, and reinstated a practice to allocate cheap currency for imports of essential goods. The average Iranian is expected to get poorer due to rampant inflation. The judiciary continues to emphasize that anyone engaging in dissent could face asset confiscation.

Successful Surgery Gives Modric a Shot at His Fifth World CupLuka Modric underwent a complex operation on his left zygomatic bone after a head‑to‑head collision with Manuel Locatelli during AC Milan’s 0‑0 draw with Juventus on April 26, 2026. The Croatian Football Federation confirmed the procedure was “completely successful” and expressed confidence in his recovery ahead of the tournament.Injury Timeline and Immediate Club ResponseApril 26, 2026 – Modric exits the match with ten minutes remaining, visibly in pain but stays on the bench.April 27, 2026 – Medical scans reveal a multi‑fragment fracture of the left cheekbone.April 28, 2026 – Surgery performed; AC Milan describes it as “complex, multi‑fragment” but successful.Recovery period – Club does not disclose exact sidelined time; only four Serie A rounds remain.Key Numbers Shaping the SituationAge: 40 years old, making him one of the oldest World Cup participants if he plays.Contract: One‑year deal signed last summer with an option for a further year.League standing: AC Milan sit third, 12 points behind leaders Inter Milan with four games left.World Cup start: June 11, 2026 – Croatia’s Group L matches begin on June 17.Implications for Croatia and MilanThe captain’s swift recovery is crucial for Croatia, which will face England, Ghana and Panama in Group L. Coach Zlatko Dalic emphasized full medical support and confidence that Modric will lead the team. For Milan, Modric’s availability could influence the final league push, though a protective mask may be required if he returns before the season ends.Outlook: Can Modric Make the World Cup Squad?Medical staff expect a “speedy and quality” recovery, aligning with the national team’s preparation schedule. If all goes to plan, Modric should be match‑fit for Croatia’s opening game on June 17. Even if he misses the Serie A run‑in, a mask‑protected appearance in the World Cup remains plausible, preserving his legacy as a five‑time tournament veteran.

Weekly Overview: Ceasefires Mask Intensified Israeli OperationsIsrael has signed ceasefires in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, yet Israeli forces and settlers expanded their presence in the occupied West Bank, deepened incursions in Gaza and intensified actions in East Jerusalem during the week of April 20‑27, 2026.Escalation of Israeli Military Actions Across Gaza, West Bank, and East JerusalemIn Gaza, drone and air strikes killed 40 Palestinians, including three police officers and three children.In the West Bank, settler‑linked shootings and vehicle attacks resulted in the deaths of teenagers in al‑Mughayyir, Hebron, Nablus and Deir Dibwan.In East Jerusalem, demolition of 17 homes in Silwan’s al‑Bustan neighbourhood accelerated, targeting a total of 115 homes by October.Municipal elections were held for the first time in Gaza since 2006, with a 23 % turnout in Deir el‑Balah.Casualty and Displacement Statistics for the WeekTotal Palestinian deaths in Gaza since the October 11 ceasefire: 817; injured: 2,200+.Cumulative Gaza death toll since October 7, 2023: 72,593.Movement obstacles recorded by OCHA: 925, the highest in 20 years (43 % above the two‑decade average).Displacement incidents: demolition of a school and homes in Hammamat al‑Maleh, displacing the last three households.Political Ramifications and Settlement Expansion Amidst CeasefiresThe week coincided with the formation of a Naftali Bennett‑Yair Lapid alliance that will challenge Benjamin Netanyahu in the upcoming October elections, while the alliance’s leader has ruled out Arab parties in any future coalition. Settler violence surged, with coordinated calls to “cancel Oslo with your feet” and attacks in multiple Area A and B locales, underscoring a strategic push to reshape facts on the ground before any political settlement.Outlook: Prospects for De‑escalation and Regional StabilityGiven the pattern of using ceasefires as a cover for intensified operations, humanitarian aid inflows remain insufficient despite the reopening of the Zikim crossing. Unless diplomatic pressure curtails settlement expansion and protects civilian infrastructure, the cycle of violence and displacement is likely to continue, further complicating any ceasefire‑based peace initiatives.

The Resurgence of Hezbollah When Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire in November 2024, the popular perception was that the pro-Iranian Lebanese group was a spent force. However, Hezbollah has now reemerged as a strong fighting force in southern Lebanon, engaging in intense battles with Israel. Hezbollah's Capabilities and Strategy Analysts told Al Jazeera that Hezbollah's fortunes seem to have turned, but its future is still unclear and likely tied to negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The group has retained considerable capabilities, reorganized its ranks, and continues to receive significant support from Iran. The Impact of Negotiations on Hezbollah's Future The future of Hezbollah is likely to be determined by the outcome of negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as between Lebanon and Israel. Hezbollah has refused to abide by the results of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, and its leader, Naim Qassem, has expressed opposition to these talks. The Role of Iranian Support Hezbollah draws the vast majority of its support from Lebanon's Shia Muslim community and is largely unpopular among other groups. The group is still heavily reliant on Iran for its financial backing, and Tehran seems unlikely to capitulate militarily or in negotiations. The Uncertain Future Analysts said they think Iran's distrust of the US and Israel means it is unlikely to abandon its Lebanese ally. While descriptions of Hezbollah as a proxy are inaccurate, the two parties share many mutual interests and coordinate in turn. The outcome of various negotiations will heavily influence Hezbollah's future, both politically and militarily.