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Apr 28, 2026
Analyzed by Llama- 4 Scout 17B 16E Instruct

Iran's Two-Month War: Changes and Continuities

AI Summary
Two months into the war between Iran and the US-Israel alliance, significant changes have occurred, yet many aspects of Iranian governance and society remain unchanged. The Islamic Republic's institutions, including the judiciary and parliament, continue to function, while the IRGC maintains its influence.

The Lead

Two months into the war between Iran and the US-Israel alliance, much has changed for Iranian authorities and the 90 million people in the country. However, some elements of how Iran works and who controls key decisions have only become more entrenched.

Leadership Changes

Despite US President Donald Trump's claims of 'regime change' following the killing of several high-ranking officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the main institutions of the Islamic Republic remain in place. Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the former supreme leader, was quickly elected as his successor by a clerical body.

  • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to play a significant role in military operations, economic management, and maintaining armed control on the streets.
  • The judiciary, parliament, and state television remain under the influence of hardline factions.

Shifts in Political Position

Iranian authorities have not reached a consensus to grant concessions required by Trump, as they believe it would amount to capitulation. The IRGC and traditional army remain prepared to launch missiles and drones at regional countries and US forces if necessary.

  • Iran's latest proposal to the US is to postpone discussing the country's nuclear program.
  • The IRGC and state media emphasize the importance of the Strait of Hormuz and managing it with Oman.

Differences in Domestic Policy

The Iranian establishment faces complex problems at home, including a struggling economy with high inflation and significant damage from intense bombardment. The government has prioritized procuring food and medicine, and reinstated a practice to allocate cheap currency for imports of essential goods.

  • The average Iranian is expected to get poorer due to rampant inflation.
  • The judiciary continues to emphasize that anyone engaging in dissent could face asset confiscation.