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Apr 30, 2026
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US-Iran Conflict May Become Protracted 'Frozen' War

AI Summary
The US and Iran conflict may become a protracted 'frozen' war, with both sides engaging in a low-intensity conflict interspersed with periodic strikes, prolonging regional instability and global economic disruption.

The US-Iran Conflict Escalation

Two months since the US and Israel launched a joint surprise attack on Iran, negotiations appear deadlocked, as competing blockades of the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global energy supplies, and the future of Iran's nuclear programme remains unresolved.

The Frozen Conflict Scenario

All military options remain on the table, despite a ceasefire in force since April 8 having paused the conflict. Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Tuesday cautioned against the possibility of a 'frozen conflict', where the critical waterway is used as a pressure card amid the possibility of violent flare-ups.

The Cost of a 'Frozen' War

The war between the US and Iran can already be described as 'frozen', but this no-war-no-deal scenario comes at too high a cost for both parties, Mehran Kamrava, an expert on Iran at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera.

  • The American foreign policy think tank Quincy Institute estimated that Washington's costs incurred over the first month of the war were between $20bn and $25bn.
  • A large-scale ground operation in Iran similar to that of Iraq in 2003 would require at least 500,000 personnel and some $55bn a month, or more than $650bn a year.

Prolonged versus Protracted Conflict

In Trump's initial projection, the war in Iran was intended to last 'four to five weeks'. Two months into the conflict, Chandler Williams, researcher at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), says the prolonged conflict has lasted longer than forecast.

The Impact of a Protracted Conflict

Washington is betting on sustained economic and diplomatic pressure backed by Trump's constant threat to renew strikes to see if it can 'finish what air strikes alone cannot achieve', Williams said.

For its part, Iran is aware of the US's military superiority and has opted for leveraging the Strait of Hormuz until the US decides that a negotiated settlement is preferable.

'Mowing the Grass' in Iran

On Tuesday, the US Department of Defense requested $53.6bn for autonomous drones for the 2027 fiscal year, a roughly 24,000 percent increase from last year.

If the tactics of the conflict shift towards drone warfare and towards a low-intensity conflict, this has lower costs for the attacker but a higher impact for the recipient as we've seen in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, Michael Kerr, a historian and political scientist at King's College London, told Al Jazeera.