US-Iran Conflict: A Devastating War with No Winners

The recent conflict between the US and Iran has resulted in a devastating war with no winners. Despite Donald Trump's claims of victory, the two-week ceasefire announced is not a triumph, and the war may not be over. The Iranian regime has not undergone regime change, and less experienced but more hardline figures are now in charge.

The conflict has killed thousands in the region, including children, and left many more exhausted, terrified, and traumatized. The war has also spooked markets, raised prices at home, and shown signs of fracturing Trump's Maga base. The US has squandered tens of billions of dollars, burned through its interceptors, and torched relations with allies.

Israel has achieved none of its stated aims and is left with a weaker but less predictable adversary. The Iranian regime can count survival as a kind of success, but senior leaders are dead, its economy is on its knees, and essential infrastructure has been smashed. The people are likely to face yet greater repression.

The war has destabilized the region and normalized talk of war crimes, further trashing the idea of a rules-based order. Restrictions on transit will continue to damage humanitarian aid operations and raise prices worldwide, hitting the poorest hardest.

The only real winners are arms manufacturers, Russia, and arguably China, at least for now. This is a strategic defeat for the US that will resound for decades, and a clear sign of its systemic failures.