US Economic Confidence Plummets Amid Iran War, Gallup Poll Shows

Only 16% of Americans now view the U.S. economy as "good" or "excellent," and the Gallup Economic Confidence Index has fallen to -45, the lowest reading since 2022. The decline follows a sharp rise in inflation and gasoline prices triggered by the ongoing war on Iran, adding fresh pressure to President Donald Trump's re‑election prospects.

Gallup Survey Reveals Record‑Low Economic Confidence

The Gallup poll, released on May 24, 2026, asked respondents to rate current economic conditions and outlook. Findings include:

• 49% say conditions are "poor"
• 34% rate them as "fair"
• 76% believe the economy is getting worse
• 20% think it is improving

The index combines two sub‑scores: economic conditions (-33) and economic outlook (-56).

Key Numbers: Inflation, Gasoline Prices, and the Energy Shock

Energy costs have surged since the conflict began in late February:

• Average gasoline price: $4.55 per gallon, up from under $3.00 pre‑war
• Consumer‑price inflation rose in March and April, driven primarily by higher energy prices

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. naval blockades have constrained global oil supplies, amplifying domestic price pressures.

War on Iran Drives Sentiment and Shapes the 2026 Midterms

The deteriorating confidence adds to President Trump's political woes. A concurrent New York Times/Sienna poll shows only 31% approval of his handling of the Iran war. Critics argue the administration’s focus on foreign intervention distracts from domestic economic concerns, while the president maintains the campaign is essential to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Outlook: Recovery Paths or Continued Decline?

Analysts warn that unless the energy blockade eases, gasoline prices could remain elevated, keeping consumer sentiment low. Potential scenarios include:

• Ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – could lower oil prices and improve confidence.
• Prolonged conflict – may entrench high energy costs, further eroding the index.
• Policy interventions such as targeted subsidies or tax relief to offset inflationary pressures.

The next few months will be pivotal for both the economy and the upcoming midterm elections, as voters weigh the cost of war against domestic economic performance.