US Appears to Accept Iran's Demand to Settle Hormuz First, Nuclear Talks Later
The US Shift on Hormuz and Nuclear Talks
The United States Navy began escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday morning, only to pause the operation by Tuesday afternoon. President Donald Trump announced the reversal on Truth Social, citing the 'request of Pakistan and other Countries' and 'great progress' towards a 'complete and final agreement' with Iran.
Iran's Core Demand
For weeks, Iran has been demanding multistage negotiations, with a preliminary deal aimed at ending the war, and negotiations on the White House's demands that Tehran end its nuclear programme pushed for later. The US appears to have come around to accepting Iran's demand, with a one-page MoU to end the war close to being agreed upon.
The Data Analysis
The shift in the US approach reflects a sober reassessment in Washington of what is achievable. Seyed Mojtaba Jalalzadeh, an international relations analyst based in Tehran, said the week's diplomatic signals indicated a viable first step to solve the immediate problem.
- Iran's 14-point proposal to end the war includes lifting the US naval blockade, releasing frozen Iranian assets, and paying reparations.
- The US and Iran are close to agreeing to a one-page MoU to end the war.
The Impact Analysis
The central question is whether the US has, implicitly, accepted Iran's core demand: end the war and settle the Strait of Hormuz first, with the nuclear programme to follow. This marks a significant shift from March, when the US outlined four objectives, including destroying Iran's ballistic missile capabilities and ensuring Iran never obtained a nuclear weapon.
The Prediction
Significant gaps remain, including the definition of 'opening the strait' and the new mechanism governing the Strait of Hormuz. However, the converging deadlines, including the upcoming Hajj pilgrimage and the summit between Trump and President Xi Jinping, make some form of agreement more likely.