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Environment
Jun 02, 2026
Analyzed by GPT OSS 120B

UN Warns of Imminent El Niño Return and Escalating Weather Extremes

AI Summary
The United Nations, backed by the World Meteorological Organization, says there is an 80% chance El Niño will form before September and a 90% chance it will persist through November. The agency urges governments to treat the forecast as an urgent climate warning and prepare for intensified heat, rain and drought worldwide.

Executive Summary: A Climate Alarm Bell Rings

The UN has issued a stark warning that El Niño is likely to re‑emerge this year, bringing a wave of super‑charged weather extremes. With an 80% probability of formation before September and a 90% chance of lasting until November, the pattern threatens to amplify global warming, disrupt food supplies and intensify floods and droughts.

UN and WMO Forecast an Imminent El Niño Development

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its latest outlook on Tuesday, noting that most climate models project the return of the cyclical phenomenon at “at least moderate” strength, with some indicating a potentially strong event. Scientists caution it could become the strongest El Niño of the 21st century.

  • Formation window: before September 2026
  • Persistence window: through November 2026
  • Strength: moderate to strong, possibly the strongest this century

Key Numbers: Probabilities, Temperatures and Regional Impacts

The WMO’s quantitative outlook highlights:

  • 80% chance of El Niño onset before September
  • 90% chance it will continue into November
  • Unusually high temperatures forecast for nearly all regions over the next three months
  • Increased likelihood of extreme rain in South America, the southern US, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia
  • Drier conditions expected in Central America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia

Why This Matters: Global Climate, Food Security and Economic Risks

El Niño acts as a “fuel‑on‑the‑fire” for a warming planet, according to António Guterres, UN Secretary‑General. The pattern can:

  • Push global temperatures higher, contributing to record‑breaking heat years (2024 already set new highs)
  • Exacerbate droughts that strain water supplies and agricultural yields
  • Trigger severe flooding and landslides, as seen in Tanzania’s April 2024 rains
  • Influence hurricane formation—enhancing storms in the central/eastern Pacific while suppressing them in the Atlantic

Experts like Gareth Redmond‑King of the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit warn that the looming El Niño could jeopardise already fragile food systems, especially as fertilizer supplies are constrained by geopolitical conflicts.

Looking Ahead: 2027 and the Next Decade of Climate Risk

The UN stresses that the most severe impacts may materialise in 2027, when El Niño could drive the hottest year on record. Preparing now means:

  • Accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels
  • Scaling renewable‑energy deployment
  • Strengthening early‑warning systems for vulnerable communities
  • Implementing climate‑resilient agricultural practices

Failure to act could lock in a trajectory of escalating heat, water scarcity and food insecurity for the coming decade.