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Apr 23, 2026
Analyzed by Glm 4.7 Flash

UN Warns 30 Million Will Return to Poverty Amid US-Israeli War on Iran

AI Summary
The United Nations Development Programme warns that the US-Israeli conflict in Iran will push over 30 million people back into poverty and trigger a global food crisis due to severe disruptions in fertilizer and fuel supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Critical Disruption of Global Supply Chains

The ongoing conflict between the United States and Israel has escalated into a broader geopolitical crisis, severely impacting global logistics. The blocking of cargo vessels through the Strait of Hormuz has created a chokehold on essential commodities, specifically fuel and fertilizers. This disruption is not merely a shipping issue but a fundamental threat to agricultural productivity, as much of the world’s fertiliser production is concentrated in the Middle East.

Quantifying the Economic Toll: GDP and Poverty

  • Global GDP Loss: The UN’s development chief, Alexander De Croo, estimates that the conflict has already wiped out 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP).
  • Poverty Reversal: The economic fallout is expected to push more than 30 million people back into poverty.
  • Timeframe: The UN warns that these effects are already in motion and will peak in the coming months, regardless of whether the war stops immediately.

Regional Vulnerabilities and the Looming Food Crisis

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a dire warning, suggesting that a prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global food catastrophe. The shortage of fertilizers is particularly acute, as one-third of global supplies passes through the strategic waterway currently under contention.

Several nations are identified as being on the front lines of this crisis:

  • India
  • Bangladesh
  • Sri Lanka
  • Somalia
  • Sudan
  • Tanzania
  • Kenya
  • Egypt

Humanitarian Aid at Breaking Point

The ripple effects of the war are straining the global humanitarian infrastructure. Alexander De Croo highlighted that the crisis is diverting resources and choking key aid routes, delaying life-saving shipments to other conflict zones. With the sector already facing funding cuts, the UN anticipates having to turn away vulnerable populations, stating, “We will have to say to certain people, really sorry, but we can’t help you.” This signals a potential collapse in international aid capacity for the world’s most vulnerable regions.