UK Inflation Holds Steady at 3% Amidst Rising Global Energy Costs

The UK inflation rate held steady at 3% in February, according to official figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This stability comes before the recent surge in global energy costs triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.

The consumer prices index (CPI) remained at the same level as the previous month, in line with economists' expectations. However, it still stands well above the government's 2% target. The annual rate of food inflation saw a slight decrease, driven by drops in prices of olive oil, flour, and pizza. Despite this, the Food and Drink Federation warned that this could be 'the calm before the storm'.

The outlook for inflation has significantly shifted since the onset of the Middle East conflict. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an important shipping route, has sent oil and gas prices soaring. As recently as last month, the Bank of England was forecasting CPI inflation to fall to the 2% target in the second quarter of the year. However, with the current situation, markets now expect the next move in interest rates to be up.

Grant Fitzner, the ONS chief economist, noted that the largest upwards driver was the price of clothing, which rose this month but fell a year ago. This was offset by falls in petrol costs, with prices collected before the start of the conflict in the Middle East and subsequent rise in crude oil prices.

The ONS also reported that core inflation, which excludes volatile factors including food and fuel, was higher in February than a month earlier, at 3.2%, up from 3.1% in January. Chancellor Rachel Reeves emphasized the government's plan to protect people from unfair price rises and support those facing higher heating oil costs.