UK Defence Spending vs Welfare: A Misguided Debate

The Misguided Debate Over Defence and Welfare

The present day 'guns v butter' debate has morphed into a warfare/welfare zero-sum. Al Carns, former armed forces minister, repeated the tired phrase, suggesting that it's about finding a balance between defence and welfare spending.

The Ministry of Defence's Wastefulness

The public accounts committee has repeatedly criticised the Ministry of Defence for wild overspending and delays. The National Audit Office refused to fully verify Ministry of Defence accounts last year, citing issues with the £6bn Ajax armoured vehicle project, which was eight years late and faulty.

The Data Analysis: Defence Spending vs Welfare

Ruth Curtice, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, challenges the common narrative that welfare spending is out of control. She finds that non-pensioner welfare spending is now about the level of the mid-90s. However, pensioner welfare spending, particularly the triple lock, is where the real issue lies.

The Impact Analysis: The Real Issue Lies Elsewhere

The real issue lies not in welfare spending, but in the Ministry of Defence's wastefulness and the pensioner triple lock. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that if the triple lock were reformed to keep pace with average earnings, it would cost £12.6bn less by 2029.

The Prediction: A New Approach to Defence and Welfare

Rather than pitting defence against welfare, the UK should consider a new approach that prioritises both. This could include a defence levy, such as low-interest patriotic defence bonds, to fund defence spending without taking from those with the least.