Trump’s Desperate Quest for a Win as He Meets Xi in Beijing
The High‑Stakes Trump‑Xi Summit in Beijing
Donald Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday for his first visit to China since 2017, meeting Xi Jinping on Thursday and Friday. Experts say the timing is critical: the United States is engaged in wars in the Middle East and Trump’s approval rating has slipped to the low‑30s, making a diplomatic win politically valuable.
Trade War Fallout and Tariff Numbers
Since Trump returned to office in 2025, the U.S. imposed tariffs up to 145 % on Chinese goods. Beijing responded with its own tariffs and halted rare‑earth exports, a sector where it holds a global monopoly.
- U.S. imports from China fell > 25 % in 2025.
- U.S. exports to China fell > 25 % in the same period.
- Without the trade war, U.S. exports to China would have been about $90 bn higher in 2025, according to Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute of International Economics (PIIE).
Economic Impact: Shifts in US‑China Trade Flows
PIIE data show that while imports from China dropped to 9 % of total U.S. imports in 2025 (down 4 % YoY), imports from alternative sources rose 9 %, reflecting supply‑chain diversification to Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan.
China’s trade surplus reached a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, offsetting reduced U.S. trade by expanding sales to other regions.
Geopolitical Ramifications Amid Middle‑East Conflicts
The U.S. is simultaneously managing a war in Iran and rising energy prices; Brent crude rose to $104 per barrel, pushing U.S. gasoline to an average of $4.48 per gallon. Analysts argue that Trump’s need for a diplomatic success may drive concessions from China on issues such as the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian negotiations, and high‑technology chip access.
Outlook: What the Summit Could Mean for 2026 Elections and Global Trade
Experts, including Wei Liang of the Middlebury Institute, warn that the United States enters the November 2026 midterms with low public support (34 % approval). A tangible agreement—whether on rare‑earth supplies, agricultural purchases, or security cooperation—could provide Trump a narrative boost.
Conversely, China faces little domestic pressure and may leverage its stronger position to extract long‑term concessions, potentially reshaping the U.S.–China trade architecture for years to come.