Trump's Iran Deal Could Place His Legacy in the Hands of Tehran

The Lead

Donald Trump's Iran deal risks placing his legacy in the hands of Tehran, mirroring Jimmy Carter's experience with the 1979 hostage crisis. The article explores how Trump's military action against Iran has unexpectedly strengthened the regime and created political divisions within his own base.

The Historical Context of US-Iran Relations

Donald Trump's first recorded foray into politics was sparked by the 1979 takeover of the US embassy in Tehran, which saw 52 American diplomats held incommunicado for 444 days. This event set the stage for more than four decades of torturous relations between the US and Iran.

In October 1980, Trump lashed out in an NBC interview, arguing the crisis should have been resolved with a military invasion. "That they hold our hostages is just absolutely, and totally ridiculous," he told Barrett, arguing the crisis should have been resolved with a military invasion.

The Trump Administration's Iran Strategy

Forty-seven years later, the psychic ripple effect of that searing international drama may have been uppermost in Trump's mind as he took the fateful decision to launch a war against Iran that he predicted would be finished quickly, but which swiftly spiralled out of control.

Trump referenced the hostage crisis on the opening day of the war, as he sought to justify a campaign for which he had done next to nothing to prepare the American public in advance. He also repeatedly invoked Carter as the model of the president he would never be.

The Unintended Consequences of Trump's Iran War

Three and a half months after launching a war that was meant to resolve Washington's Iran problem once and for all, Trump now finds himself in a position that uncannily resembles that of his disdained predecessor. An array of unpalatable options have rendered American military strength moot, just as it was in Carter's time.

Initially staged by militant students acting without approval from above, the 1979-81 embassy siege was embraced by Iran's spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, as a means of safeguarding the fledgling Islamic Republic from its internal opponents. Likewise, Trump's ill-judged war is serving as a source of renewed legitimation for a regime that was facing an existential crisis.

The Political Fallout

Diaspora Iranians, many of whom lambasted Barack Obama for signing the 2015 nuclear pact with Tehran, and who embraced Trump as the last best hope for regime change, are in a state of bewilderment. Reza Pahlavi, son of the former monarch overthrown in the 1979 revolution, criticised the White House for "mixed signals" which were, he said "confusing the hell out of everybody".

But the backlash from disaffected Iranians pales in comparison with the fissures in Trump's own base. Vocal America First-ers in the president's Maga movement were opposed to the war from the beginning, seeing it as betrayal of his promise to kick the habit of Middle East "forever wars".

The Future of US-Iran Relations

Traditional Republican Iran-hawks, who vociferously supported war, detect something that ranks worse in Trump's eyes: weakness. In their minds, the strongman president has surrendered leverage over Iran's nuclear programme merely to secure the reopening of the strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war started.

Given the country's geostrategic heft, Trump now faces comparable obloquy, whatever the short-term political dividends of falling fuel costs from reopening the Hormuz strait. Humility would surely have guided him on to a more cautious path.