Trump Claims Peace Deal with Iran 'Largely Negotiated'
The Lead
Donald Trump claimed on Saturday that a peace deal with Iran “has been largely negotiated”, after calls with a Pakistani mediator, Gulf allies and Israel, potentially paving the way for an end to the war launched by the US and Israel in February.
Trump's Announcement
Trump wrote on his social media platform that “final aspects and details” of a “memorandum of understanding” were still being discussed and “will be announced shortly”, but said the strait of Hormuz would be opened as part of the deal.
- “An agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries,” Trump posted.
Iran's Response
However, Iran’s Fars news agency, which is close to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that the strait of Hormuz would remain under Iranian control, a red line for the US.
- The news agency reported on Telegram that “the management of the Strait, determining the route, time, method of passage, and issuing permits will continue to be the monopoly and discretion of the Islamic Republic of Iran”.
- It said Trump’s assertion that an agreement was nearly final was “inconsistent with reality”.
Pakistan's Involvement
Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, later congratulated Trump on his peace efforts and said Pakistan hoped to host another round of talks between the US and Iran “very soon”.
- Sharif described the US president’s call with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, Jordan and Pakistan as “very useful and productive”, adding: “Pakistan will continue its peace efforts with utmost sincerity and we hope to host the next round of talks very soon.”
The Data Analysis
Details purported to be in the draft agreement include that the strait would reopen with no tolls during a 60-day ceasefire extension, while Iran would be able to freely sell oil and negotiations would be held on curbing its nuclear program, according to Axios.
- In exchange, the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports, it reported, citing a US official.
The Impact Analysis
The report tallies with the Associated Press, which cited a regional source as saying the potential deal would include an official declaration of the war’s end, with two-month negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, the opening of the crucial shipping lane by Iran and an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports.
The Prediction
Three senior Iranian officials told the New York Times the agreement would stop the fighting in Iran and in Lebanon, and could release $25bn in Iranian assets frozen overseas, with a nuclear agreement to be negotiated within 30 to 60 days.