Back to Headlines
Business
Jun 14, 2026
Analyzed by GPT OSS 120B

SpaceX Targets Record $1.78tn IPO Amid Valuation Concerns

AI Summary
SpaceX plans to launch the largest ever stock market float, seeking a $1.78 trillion valuation on a $75 billion share offering. Analysts and politicians warn the price may be disconnected from the company’s earnings and market fundamentals.

SpaceX Aims for the Largest IPO in History

SpaceX is set to float on the U.S. stock market on Friday with a target valuation of $1.78 trillion, the biggest IPO ever, but analysts warn the price may be far above the company’s fundamentals.

IPO Structure: $75bn Share Offering and Oversubscription

The company will sell at least $75 billion of shares, a figure nearly three times the previous record set by Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion 2019 float. Reuters reports the offering is oversubscribed by three to four times, with more than $250 billion of investor bids.

  • Share price target: $135 per share
  • Morningstar fair‑value estimate: $63 per share
  • Net loss in 2025: $4.9 billion

Valuation Metrics: $1.78tn Price Tag vs. Fundamentals

At the proposed valuation, SpaceX trades at roughly 92 times its trailing sales, a multiple that assumes investors will fully price in ambitious projects such as orbital data centres, lunar bases and interplanetary cities.

Morningstar’s chief equity strategist Michael Field argues the valuation is “extremely speculative,” noting that while Starlink is a clear strength, the AI division and other untested technologies inflate the price.

Starlink’s total addressable market is claimed by SpaceX to be $1.6 trillion, but Morningstar estimates a realistic global opportunity of about $129 billion.

Market and Regulatory Reactions: Investor Sentiment and Political Scrutiny

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren has urged the SEC to delay the IPO, citing “unprecedented threats to investor protection and market integrity.”

Index providers are moving in different directions:

  • MSCI says it will apply existing rules for early inclusion of large IPOs, potentially channeling passive‑fund demand into SpaceX.
  • Nasdaq has adjusted its criteria to make it easier for new listings like SpaceX to join its indices.
  • S&P Dow Jones has declined to relax its entry rules, meaning SpaceX could be months away from S&P 500 eligibility.

Outlook: Potential Paths for SpaceX Post‑Listing

If the float proceeds as planned, Elon Musk could become the world’s first trillionaire, but the share price may experience sharp volatility as investors reconcile the lofty valuation with the company’s recent $4.9 billion loss and the gap between Morningstar’s $63 fair value and the $135 IPO price.

Should regulatory pressure lead to a delay, the oversubscription levels suggest strong demand that could re‑emerge at a later date, potentially at a more modest price point.

In the longer term, inclusion in MSCI and Nasdaq indices could provide a steady flow of institutional capital, while exclusion from the S&P 500 may limit exposure to the largest passive‑fund pools.