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Jun 04, 2026
Analyzed by GPT OSS 120B

SpaceX Targets Record‑Breaking $1.78 trn IPO Amid Overvaluation Concerns

AI Summary
SpaceX has filed to raise up to $86 bn at a $1.78 trn valuation, which would become the world’s largest IPO. Analysts, including Morningstar, warn the price is far above the company’s earnings, sparking debate over the sustainability of the space‑economy boom.

The Record‑Breaking IPO Plan

SpaceX filed paperwork on 4 June 2026 to launch an initial public offering that could value the company at $1.78 trn, eclipsing the 2019 Saudi Aramco float. The filing outlines a primary raise of $75 bn, with an optional increase to $86 bn if underwriters exercise their share‑sale option.

Financial Snapshot: Valuation vs Revenue

  • Net loss in 2025: $4.94 bn
  • Revenue 2025: $18.67 bn (up 33% YoY)
  • Proposed valuation multiple: > 90× annual revenue

By contrast, Morningstar’s discounted‑cash‑flow model places the firm at roughly $780 bn, less than half of the IPO price.

Market Reaction and Overvaluation Warnings

Morningstar’s senior analyst Michael Hewson called the valuation “significantly overvalued,” suggesting investors may find “more attractive levels after the IPO.” The firm’s warning highlights the gap between the proposed price and traditional profit‑based multiples.

“We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO.” – Morningstar

Implications for the Space Economy and Investors

Listing would give SpaceX fresh capital and provide “exit liquidity” for insiders, allowing pension funds and index trackers to acquire stakes in Musk’s broader ambitions, including orbital AI data centres and the Starlink network.

Outlook: What Could Happen After the Float?

Analysts warn that the lofty price could deter participation, risking an undersubscribed offering. If the IPO proceeds, the company could join the Nasdaq, further legitimising the commercial space sector, but the long‑term price trajectory will hinge on whether revenue growth can close the gap to the $1.78 trn benchmark.