Rainforests Near Breaking Point as Demand for Minerals, Biofuels and Pulp Soars
The latest Profundo analysis, commissioned by Rainforest Foundation Norway, reveals that accelerating extraction of critical minerals, biofuels and pulp is compounding traditional threats like cattle ranching and logging, driving the world’s largest rainforests toward a breaking point.
Report Highlights Escalating Resource Extraction Threats to Rainforests
The study tracks commodity pressures across the Amazon, Congo Basin and Southeast Asia, showing how mining, oil‑gas expansion, and biofuel agriculture together create a “compounding assault” on forest ecosystems.
- Mining footprints are larger than previously estimated due to water pollution and infrastructure sprawl.
- Between 10% and one‑third of global forests are already affected, with the share set to rise.
- Key interviewees include Ingrid Turgen and Barbara Kuepper of Rainforest Foundation Norway.
Quantified Deforestation Projections and Commodity Pressures
Specific forecasts illustrate the scale of upcoming loss:
- 57,000 sq km of Amazon forest could disappear by 2034 if Brazil’s 10.2% beef‑production increase proceeds.
- Open‑pit gold mines already cover 1.9 m ha in the Amazon; projected demand could add 375 sq km of deforestation by 2028.
- Electric‑vehicle battery minerals may trigger 1,500‑4,700 sq km of forest loss by 2050.
- Biofuel demand could require an extra 52 m ha of cropland, clearing up to 35,000 sq km of Amazon vegetation by 2035.
Broader Ecological and Climate Implications
The combined pressures erode the forests’ ability to regulate temperature, store carbon, recycle water and sustain biodiversity. Secondary effects extend up to 50 km from mines, disproportionately affecting Indigenous territories and critical carbon sinks such as the Cuvette Centrale peatlands.
Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations
Authors stress that recycling alone cannot offset the scale of demand. They propose:
- Greater transparency and traceability in global supply chains.
- Stronger enforcement of environmental regulations in extraction zones.
- Demand‑reduction strategies in consumer markets, especially for fast‑fashion viscose, paper‑based packaging, and biofuel feedstocks.
Without decisive action, the report warns that the Amazon, Congo and Southeast Asian rainforests could face “a pretty bleak scenario” within the next decade.