Back to Headlines
Politics
Jun 08, 2026
Analyzed by GPT OSS 120B

SIPRI Study Warns Nuclear Risks Surge as Major Powers Modernise Arsenals

AI Summary
A new SIPRI report reveals that the nine nuclear‑armed states collectively hold 12,187 warheads, with 9,745 in active stockpiles, and are accelerating modernisation programmes that reverse decades of disarmament. The study warns that expanding arsenals and heightened alert statuses raise the risk of nuclear escalation.

SIPRI Report Shows Global Nuclear Arsenals Expanding Faster Than Expected

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released a study on June 8, 2026 indicating that the world’s nine nuclear‑armed states are upgrading and expanding their warhead stockpiles, creating “new risks” amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Warhead Totals and Deployment Patterns

According to the report, the nine powers possessed 12,187 nuclear warheads in January 2026, of which 9,745 are held in military stockpiles for potential use. An estimated 4,012 warheads are deployed on missiles and aircraft, and up to 2,200 are on high alert, capable of launch within minutes.

  • Russia and the United States together account for roughly 83% of warheads available for military use and about 86% of the global total.
  • China increased its arsenal to about 620 warheads, the fastest growth among the nine.
  • France and the United Kingdom maintain large but undisclosed stockpiles, with the UK expected to grow its operational warheads.
  • India and Pakistan show modest increases, while Israel is estimated at 90 warheads and North Korea at around 60.

Country‑by‑Country Arsenal Changes

The study notes specific trends:

  • China: rose from ~600 to 620 warheads year‑on‑year.
  • United States and Russia: maintain the bulk of deployed and high‑alert warheads.
  • France: continues modernisation and plans to expand warhead numbers, while ending public reporting.
  • United Kingdom: no increase in 2025, but future operational stockpile growth is anticipated.
  • India and Pakistan: slight increases and ongoing development of new delivery systems.
  • Israel: maintains policy of ambiguity; infrastructure upgrades suggest long‑term expansion.
  • North Korea: aims to “exponentially” expand its arsenal, possibly reaching 60 warheads.

Erosion of Disarmament Momentum and Rising Strategic Risks

Researchers, including Hans Kristensen, warn that the renewed focus on nuclear capabilities is reversing decades of demobilisation. The concentration of high‑alert warheads in the hands of the United States and Russia heightens the chance of accidental or miscalculated use. SIPRI director Karim Haggag cautions that making national security strategies more dependent on nuclear weapons could significantly increase global nuclear risk.

Future Outlook: A Potential Reversal of the Post‑Cold‑War Decline

The institute projects that the long‑term decline in global nuclear stockpiles could stall, as dismantling of retired warheads slows and deployment of new systems accelerates. Continued modernisation programmes suggest the size and diversity of arsenals will likely grow in the coming years, challenging existing arms‑control frameworks.

Source: Al Jazeera, June 8, 2026