John Oliver Slams Prediction Markets: 'Betting on War is Really Dark'

The Lead

On his show Last Week Tonight, John Oliver delivered a scathing critique of prediction markets, calling out companies like Kalshi and Polymarket for allowing bets on serious events while avoiding gambling regulations through political connections and semantic loopholes.

The Rise of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have seen exponential growth in recent months, with billions of dollars wagered weekly on questions ranging from geopolitical events like "will traffic in the strait of Hormuz return to normal" to trivial matters like "will Mr Beast say 'feastable'." This surge is largely due to aggressive marketing by the two dominant players, Kalshi and Polymarket, which have opened the door to what Oliver describes as a "free-for-all" of questionable betting opportunities.

The Financial Facade

Both companies claim they are not gambling sites but financial exchanges offering "event contracts" that allow people to hedge against future risks. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour argued his platform was "very important" because it allowed people to bet on student loan forgiveness. Oliver mocked this claim, showing clips of people betting on phrases Donald Trump would say in speeches, calling it "taking advantage of a sundowning geriatric's rapidly declining verbal abilities" rather than legitimate financial hedging.

Political Connections and Regulatory Loopholes

The companies have successfully avoided gambling regulations by insisting they are financial exchanges, allowing them to operate in states where gambling is illegal and bypassing age requirements and taxes. Oliver highlighted their strong connections to the Trump family, noting that Donald Trump Jr is an investor and unpaid adviser to Polymarket and a paid adviser to Kalshi. These connections have paid off, as the Trump administration has effectively stripped the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) of its power to regulate these markets, leaving only one commissioner—Michael Selig, a prediction markets advocate—in charge.

Societal Impact and Ethical Concerns

Oliver expressed deep concern about the ethical implications of prediction markets, particularly when people bet on tragic events like "will Nancy Guthrie's kidnapper be arrested by 28 February." He noted the "chilling" reality that people might be using insider information to bet on life-or-death events, citing a case where someone made $400,000 after betting on the capture of Nicolás Maduro. Oliver also criticized news organizations for "laundering these companies' reputations" by presenting their odds as actual news.

Future Outlook and Calls for Reform

Oliver called for basic guardrails to be put in place to regulate prediction markets, expressing little faith in the current Supreme Court or Congressional action given the Trump family's involvement. He suggested that individuals should reconsider using these markets for gambling, noting they are statistically likely to lose money. Ultimately, Oliver warned against a society where "every aspect of our lives" becomes a bet, where people engage with news not for its meaning but because they have money riding on it.